At least someone got it right before me (see my avatar). 

And no, the redesign of the Channel F does not count!

Mike from Morgantown

Then buy your own thesis, you have doomed Kinect. You see, one reason that the Wii Balance Board is not more expansive is the lack of software for it -- even though it has an install base of about/close to 30M users.

If Kinect only has half that install base, and it takes a few years to get there, how many third parties are going to place a high development priority on the add-on?

Instead, it will probably befall the fate of previous add-ons like the Sega 32X and the Nintendo 64DD (which never made it out of Japan).

Finally, remember the test for hardware is not the early adoption -- but continual adoption. If those who buy first have a bad experience, it will limit the number of people who buy later.

Mike from Morgantown

yeah kinect is actually very limited in many ways. Of course, it has some amazing strengths as well, but I don't think Nintendo is worried by kinect or Move for that matter. They've simply run the course.

However, what kinect does do, is it seals up an opening that Nintendo could have gone to.

Doubtful. Looking at Kinect, I'll be surprised if it sells 2 million. The hardware just doesn't work. I think this will be the straw that breaks the camels back for Microsoft. I expect this will cause much anger from investors, diehard fans and early buyers. I think they will leave the business soon after.

Well the Wii has a userbase of about 70 million. Yet the the HD consoles appear to get top priority from 3rd party developers. Hence, it all depends on how it does at moving software.

The 32X was a stupid device, it was too expensive, the software was lame, and the carts were still limited to 4 MB. Sega should have just kept supporting  the Sega CD. People actually bought that.

The 64DD was a stupid device as well. Nintendo should have added a CD device to the N64. Many developers ignored the 64 because carts were expensive and they were limited when it came to storage space.

I'm not sure what the point of your last comment is. Are you explaining the business to me?

Yeah, I'm sure that's the experience everyone had with the Kinect. Lets ignore the vast majority of videos where it plays fine. Maybe you're too bias to weigh in on this discussion.

I've tried making that point. Nintendo fans just praise Nintendo for passing it up. As opposed to improving the original technology like MS did.

Eh, the reason PS360 get the vast majority of 3rd party software is because that's where basically everyone placed development priority and resources at the start of this gen.   Software sales are a symptom of that, not the cause... and to be honest, with the abnormally vast number of studio layoffs, sellouts and even closures this gen, it's not like it's worked out all that well for the industry at large.

We needed another PS2, and Wii could've been that, but pretty much everyone missed the boat...

It seems that Nintendo did want the technology, but they wanted the technology to be "upgradeable". Look at Nintendo since forever. It's filled with upgrades. The n64 expansion pack. The gamecube travel screen. Ds lite, DSi. Motion .

To me, Nintendo didn't want someone else's technology in their console, and I don't buy it for a second that Nintendo wasn't working on controller free gaming. They probably wanted it to be integrated though. And Nintendo isn't going to integrate someone else's tech in their system. Secondly, you can't upgrade a camera. It is what it is. There is no way to expand the tech and on top of all that, THERE ARE NO PERIPHERALS. Nintendo has always depended on hardware to be profitable. They would have been cutting themselves out of billions. As a business decision, it was the right one to make because it cuts profitability.

However, MS EDD don't care the slightest about profitability. They never have. They care about the marketshare.

1. I already told you they had their own camera in development.  Why bother licensing out someone elses technology when you have your own to use? Also think of Sony turning it down.

2. And how much money has MS had to spend to improve Kinect?  Ironically, they've reduced it's capabilities in the process by lowering the RGB resolution and the numbe of points of articulation it tracks.  And it's now only 2 players at a  time. Also think of Sony turning it down.

3. They already have the Vitality Sensor in development.  Working on another peripheral will continue to confuse and segregate the market making it hard to publishers to allocate funding and resources.

4. How do you know what they have planned for their next home console?  I'd say after the insanely profitable and popular DS and Wii console (and it's peripherals) that Nintendo know what they are doing.  I think I'll trust that judgement if they turn down Kinect.