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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Another Analyst Suggests Wii 1.5 On the Way

Smashchu2 on 09 August 2010
Mr Puggsly said:
Smashchu2 said:

Doubtful. Looking at Kinect, I'll be surprised if it sells 2 million. The hardware just doesn't work. I think this will be the straw that breaks the camels back for Microsoft. I expect this will cause much anger from investors, diehard fans and early buyers. I think they will leave the business soon after.

Yeah, I'm sure that's the experience everyone had with the Kinect. Lets ignore the vast majority of videos where it plays fine. Maybe you're too bias to weigh in on this discussion.

Except all videos of it working fine are faked by Microsoft. There is enough evidence to say their E3 Press Conference was fake. People couldn't even play it there.



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theprof00 on 09 August 2010
Smashchu2 said:
Mr Puggsly said:
Smashchu2 said:

Doubtful. Looking at Kinect, I'll be surprised if it sells 2 million. The hardware just doesn't work. I think this will be the straw that breaks the camels back for Microsoft. I expect this will cause much anger from investors, diehard fans and early buyers. I think they will leave the business soon after.

Yeah, I'm sure that's the experience everyone had with the Kinect. Lets ignore the vast majority of videos where it plays fine. Maybe you're too bias to weigh in on this discussion.

Except all videos of it working fine are faked by Microsoft. There is enough evidence to say their E3 Press Conference was fake. People couldn't even play it there.

It works. It's just a "crappy product for a crappy consumer". It lags, it hangs, and it's limited. But it definitely works. MS' fakeries were done in order to show the game without lag and hang. It was shown on Jimmy Fallon show working, but lagging.



mike_intellivision on 09 August 2010
Mr Puggsly said:
mike_intellivision said:

Then buy your own thesis, you have doomed Kinect. You see, one reason that the Wii Balance Board is not more expansive is the lack of software for it -- even though it has an install base of about/close to 30M users.

If Kinect only has half that install base, and it takes a few years to get there, how many third parties are going to place a high development priority on the add-on?

Instead, it will probably befall the fate of previous add-ons like the Sega 32X and the Nintendo 64DD (which never made it out of Japan).

Finally, remember the test for hardware is not the early adoption -- but continual adoption. If those who buy first have a bad experience, it will limit the number of people who buy later.

 

Mike from Morgantown

Well the Wii has a userbase of about 70 million. Yet the the HD consoles appear to get top priority from 3rd party developers. Hence, it all depends on how it does at moving software.

The 32X was a stupid device, it was too expensive, the software was lame, and the carts were still limited to 4 MB. Sega should have just kept supporting  the Sega CD. People actually bought that.

The 64DD was a stupid device as well. Nintendo should have added a CD device to the N64. Many developers ignored the 64 because carts were expensive and they were limited when it came to storage space.

I'm not sure what the point of your last comment is. Are you explaining the business to me?

Actually, the install base of the Wii is 73M while the combined install base of the Xbox 360 and PS3 is 78M.

Thus, in some ways it makes sense if you are developing a game that you could focus on two similar machines (HD output and controller input) rather than on the market leader (SD output and mixed input) and potentially sell more. And the difference is greater outside of Japan where the HD twins have nearly 9M more units than the Wii -- making the choice easier for Western developers.  

(As an aside -- I hate to admit it, but the more I think about, the more I think that KyleDog may have hit upon something when he talked about controller issues vis-a-vis Wii third-party games).

Related to add-ons, I did not site the Sega CD, which did not save the Genesis, but only added to the confusion (there were Genesis/MegaDrive games, CD games, 32X games and 32X CD games).

Finally, the last comment was meant only as a reminder that initial sales/preorders do not necessarily provide an indication for long-term success.  

 

Mike from Morgantown

 



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

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Mr Puggsly on 09 August 2010
Viper1 said:
Mr Puggsly said:
theprof00 said:
Viper1 said:

But the tech isn't very and contradicts the Wii's concept of using gestures, pointing and buttons.

 

It would be impossible to do most of Nintendo's big games via Kinect hardware.

However, what kinect does do, is it seals up an opening that Nintendo could have gone to.

I've tried making that point. Nintendo fans just praise Nintendo for passing it up. As opposed to improving the original technology like MS did.

1. I already told you they had their own camera in development.  Why bother licensing out someone elses technology when you have your own to use? Also think of Sony turning it down.

2. And how much money has MS had to spend to improve Kinect?  Ironically, they've reduced it's capabilities in the process by lowering the RGB resolution and the numbe of points of articulation it tracks.  And it's now only 2 players at a  time. Also think of Sony turning it down.

3. They already have the Vitality Sensor in development.  Working on another peripheral will continue to confuse and segregate the market making it hard to publishers to allocate funding and resources.

4. How do you know what they have planned for their next home console?  I'd say after the insanely profitable and popular DS and Wii console (and it's peripherals) that Nintendo know what they are doing.  I think I'll trust that judgement if they turn down Kinect.

1. What's your point? You still won't admit that was a dumb decision by Nintendo. They knew their camera was a joke and didn't even bother. Kinect technology could have been their next big innovation.

2. Has it been confirmed it only supports 2 players? And even a less capable Kinect is still far more capable than any other camera device we've seen.

3. A vitality sensor you say? Wow, that has potential for a lot of great games. Hopefully it'll have a huge library with tons of variety like the balance board.

4. Of course you trust their judgement. Never have they had unsuccessful hardware. And every console they released dominated the generation.



Recently Completed: 
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Mr Puggsly on 09 August 2010
Smashchu2 said:
Mr Puggsly said:
Smashchu2 said:

Doubtful. Looking at Kinect, I'll be surprised if it sells 2 million. The hardware just doesn't work. I think this will be the straw that breaks the camels back for Microsoft. I expect this will cause much anger from investors, diehard fans and early buyers. I think they will leave the business soon after.

Yeah, I'm sure that's the experience everyone had with the Kinect. Lets ignore the vast majority of videos where it plays fine. Maybe you're too bias to weigh in on this discussion.

Except all videos of it working fine are faked by Microsoft. There is enough evidence to say their E3 Press Conference was fake. People couldn't even play it there.

Well no shit the E3 video was fake. So was every single video of people playing at stores and other events. All of its fake. The Kinect is really just a box with lenses pasted on. Motion technology still doesn't exist.



Recently Completed: 
River City: Rival Showdown for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

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Mr Puggsly on 09 August 2010
mike_intellivision said:

Actually, the install base of the Wii is 73M while the combined install base of the Xbox 360 and PS3 is 78M.

Thus, in some ways it makes sense if you are developing a game that you could focus on two similar machines (HD output and controller input) rather than on the market leader (SD output and mixed input) and potentially sell more. And the difference is greater outside of Japan where the HD twins have nearly 9M more units than the Wii -- making the choice easier for Western developers.  

(As an aside -- I hate to admit it, but the more I think about, the more I think that KyleDog may have hit upon something when he talked about controller issues vis-a-vis Wii third-party games).

Related to add-ons, I did not site the Sega CD, which did not save the Genesis, but only added to the confusion (there were Genesis/MegaDrive games, CD games, 32X games and 32X CD games).

Finally, the last comment was meant only as a reminder that initial sales/preorders do not necessarily provide an indication for long-term success.  

 

Mike from Morgantown

 

Ultimately, if the Wii did a better job moving core 3rd party games it would get more. I think MH3 is the only core game that had genuinely good sales this year. But it still sold significantly less than the PSP games.

My point was the Sega CD did okay for such a high priced accessory. You mentioned the 32X, but why not the considerly more successful Sega CD? I think I made it clear that the 32X shouldn't have existed. Just like the 64DD.



Recently Completed: 
River City: Rival Showdown for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

jarrod on 09 August 2010
Mr Puggsly said:

Ultimately, if the Wii did a better job moving core 3rd party games it would get more. I think MH3 is the only core game that had genuinely good sales this year. But it still sold significantly less than the PSP games.

Not in the west, MH3's already outperformed the PSP MoHuns.  In Japan it did less than on PSP (about a third what MHP2G did counting all the budget reprints) but it also sold way better than the series did on PS2 (about double what MH2 did).  And despite being an old, exact port, with only classic controller support, and pay-to-play online, MHG sold the same on Wii as it did on PS2 years earlier (about 250k).  That's pretty amazing honestly.

What you're arguing is essentially a chicken / egg scenario.  Wii doesn't get AAA core games because it can't sell core games / Wii can't sell core games because it doesn't get AAA core games.  MH3's about the only real one so far, and it's an exception to both rules...



Mr Puggsly on 09 August 2010
jarrod said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Ultimately, if the Wii did a better job moving core 3rd party games it would get more. I think MH3 is the only core game that had genuinely good sales this year. But it still sold significantly less than the PSP games.

What you're arguing is essentially a chicken / egg scenario.  Wii doesn't get AAA core games because it can't sell core games / Wii can't sell core games because it doesn't get AAA core games.  MH3's about the only real one so far, and it's an exception to both rules...

Well I think its proof that the Wii can get respectable sales on already mega popular series. For example, CoD and Resident Evil also has had sold sales. Less popular core games tend to struggle.



Recently Completed: 
River City: Rival Showdown for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

jarrod on 09 August 2010
Mr Puggsly said:
jarrod said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Ultimately, if the Wii did a better job moving core 3rd party games it would get more. I think MH3 is the only core game that had genuinely good sales this year. But it still sold significantly less than the PSP games.

What you're arguing is essentially a chicken / egg scenario.  Wii doesn't get AAA core games because it can't sell core games / Wii can't sell core games because it doesn't get AAA core games.  MH3's about the only real one so far, and it's an exception to both rules...

Well I think its proof that the Wii can get respectable sales on already mega popular series. For example, CoD and Resident Evil also has had sold sales. Less popular core games tend to struggle.

These days, less popular core titles tend to struggle regardless of platform.  I'm not seeing much intrinsically unique to Wii in that regard, I can name plenty of low tier core games that struggled on the HD twins, even from the companies behind COD (Activision) and RE (Capcom)... just recently Lost Planet 2, Dark Void, Singularity or Blur come to mind.  Maybe both companies should consider moving core titles away from those platforms?

If anything, the gulf between success and failure seems even more pronounced on the HD twins for 3rd parties, it's arguably a worse choice for the low tier franchises considering the costs and competition.



Smashchu2 on 09 August 2010
theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:
Mr Puggsly said:
Smashchu2 said:

Doubtful. Looking at Kinect, I'll be surprised if it sells 2 million. The hardware just doesn't work. I think this will be the straw that breaks the camels back for Microsoft. I expect this will cause much anger from investors, diehard fans and early buyers. I think they will leave the business soon after.

Yeah, I'm sure that's the experience everyone had with the Kinect. Lets ignore the vast majority of videos where it plays fine. Maybe you're too bias to weigh in on this discussion.

Except all videos of it working fine are faked by Microsoft. There is enough evidence to say their E3 Press Conference was fake. People couldn't even play it there.

It works. It's just a "crappy product for a crappy consumer". It lags, it hangs, and it's limited. But it definitely works. MS' fakeries were done in order to show the game without lag and hang. It was shown on Jimmy Fallon show working, but lagging.

Except for the fact that the Wii worked. It may not have been the best, but it worked. There was not a five second delay when you swung the bat or threw a punch. The reason the Wii Remote is crappy is because it is limited. Everything outside of pointing and pulling is gester based.

Kinect, on the other hand, is bad. It just does not work. People could easily play the Wii. They can not for Kinect,. Kinect will be the fire that kills the XBox line.

@Mr. Puggsly: Kinect E3 videos were all faked. It the most logical explination for it working on stage but when people play it. Most people have noticed that the game acts before the player does anything. You can see this in Kinectamels. Here is proof of it.