Mr Puggsly said:
Viper1 said:
Mr Puggsly said:
@ Mr Puggsly: Even today, Kinect will sell for three-quarters of the cost of a Wii console. That will be a tough sell for an add-on. Even at one-third adoption rate, you are looking at a market of less than 15 million units presently -- not enough for third-party developers to work on. Plus, there is the audience mismatch between those who are most apt to appreciate controller-free games and those who traditionally play the Xbox 360. That will make marketing difficult.
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Well its already climbing the preorder charts and interest seems to be high. Also, I predict the 360 and Kinect bundle will be a pretty big seller. I mean a 360, Kinect, and Kinect Adventures isn't a bad deal fo $299.
Would 15 million units be bad? The Wii Balance Board hasn't hit that and I still consider it a great success. The only reason the Balance Board doesn't get much software is because it has little potential for anything outside of work out games. But I don't expect big budget games on the Kinect anyhow. And hopefully MS won't let developers flood the market with shit games that barely take advantage of the hardware.
You really have no proof that its a mismatch for the current 360 audience. And it might be a great success at bringing new people to the 360. Who knows? But things aren't looking bad so far.
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It's actually about twice that figure. Wii Fit alone sold almost 23 million units and over half of the unit sales of Wii Fit Plus's 13 million are bundled with the Balance Board.
And I'd be highly surprised if Kinect makes it to 15 million units.
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I didn't realize it was that high, which is amazing considering how useless and expensive the item is.
I think 15 million can happen but it would take several years.
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Then buy your own thesis, you have doomed Kinect. You see, one reason that the Wii Balance Board is not more expansive is the lack of software for it -- even though it has an install base of about/close to 30M users.
If Kinect only has half that install base, and it takes a few years to get there, how many third parties are going to place a high development priority on the add-on?
Instead, it will probably befall the fate of previous add-ons like the Sega 32X and the Nintendo 64DD (which never made it out of Japan).
Finally, remember the test for hardware is not the early adoption -- but continual adoption. If those who buy first have a bad experience, it will limit the number of people who buy later.
Mike from Morgantown
I am Mario.
