....if things were played a little differently?

Before Sony, several other electronics giants tried their luck at the game console business, each not having too much success. NEC's TurbGrafx, Philips' CDi and the 3DO technlogy supported by such manufacturers as Panasonic and Sanyo, all suffered short lifespans. The last electronics company to try not only secured a foothold in the industry, but also dominated for the next 2 generations to come.

But what if things were played a little differently in around the 1993 - 1994 period? I have given a brief study of 3 possible companies that could have caused disruption to Sony's success, and quite possibly could have made them just another electronics company that tried and failed.


NINTENDO

The obvious contender here. Nintendo won the previous 2 generations by a healthy margin, at one stage having approximately 85% of the marketshare with the NES (a feat that has never been accomplished since). Nintendo's urge to keep on toe with then competitor Sega, had them approaching Sony for the now infamous SNES CD addon. The two parted ways abruptly after Nintendo discovered that the contract signed with Sony relegated Nintendo to a position of 2nd party developer for the SNES Playstation addon.

Advantages:

• Market Leader for last 2 generations
• A very strong first party lineup
• A number of loyal 2nd party developers

Disadvantages:

• A history of getting on some 3rd parties' backs, some anticompetitive practices
• Failure to embrace optical technology

What they could have done:

How much different would the 5th generation have been had the N64 been introduced with optical technology? For starters, it would not have forced loyal 2nd party developer Squaresoft to jump to a competing platform (and subsequently release the 2nd biggest selling title on the PSX). Nintendo also shut out many developers with creation of the "Dream Team", a group of developers who would be the only ones allowed to develop for the system (I believe it had to do with an initial shortage of cartridges. Once again, would not have been a problem if CDs were used).


SEGA

Second place in the console race for the last 2 generations. If Nintendo had made one incredible mistake and lost their footing at top place, many would have put their money on Sega taking the top spot in it's place.

Advantages:

• A strong foothold in the game industry
• Excellent first party titles
• Many arcade setups able to be ported

Disadvantages:

• A lot of money wasted on hardware just prior to 5th gen (SegaCD, 32X, Neptune, Nomad)
• Suprise release for expensive price
• Bernie Stoller (forbidded 2D games and RPGs on Saturn in the west)

What they could have done:

Sega shot themselves in the foot with all of the hardware released just prior to the Saturn, all turning out to be failures, in which Sega had to recover the costs by pricing the Saturn at $399, making it easy prey for Sony's $299 Playstation. Breaking "Saturnday" without warning also annoyed Saturn developers, who thought they had extra time prior to the release of Saturn.


COMMODORE

While Commodore probably had just as much chance of dominating the US as Sony, it could certainly have given Sony a run for it's money in Europe. Commodore had enjoyed reasonable success in Europe in the home computer market with it's Amiga brand of computers. The custom chipsets made for these computers placed them a long way ahead of any competitor in terms of graphics and sound at the time.


Advantages:

• Foothold in European computer market
• Advanced custom chipsets used by the Amiga family
• Lots of small independent developers for the platform

Disadvantages:

• Poor management

What they could have done:

Not implode. After a reasonable, successful start (100,000 consoles produced and sold. Over 50% of UK CDROM market in 1993/94), Commodore filed for bankruptcy, stopping the Amiga CD32 dead in it's tracks.




Could Sony have survived had all of these companies not fallen into their respective traps. What about if only one or two of them made the mistakes? Discuss.

Hard to say if Sony would of survived or not. You cannot change history. What has happened has.

On a side note, I still think Nintendo where right about cartridges in the N64 days. Only problem with them was they were too expensive.

All this optical disc crap means games get damaged easier. 

I really hope we move away into flash memory carts like DS games have but much bigger for consoles.

There will be no need for installs of games as they will run quick enough from flash.

Now that Sony is working on a new optical format again. I bet it will fit in below the Holographic Versatile Disc still in terms of space, Sony knows how to milk money out of people. This will no doubt send game prices up by a good $20 because developers will try to use the whole space and go bankrupt in the process lol.

I have always thought that for a console manufacturer's position as top to be usurped, they need to cock up as well as disruption by a rival.

For example, I believe that if the N64 was launched using CDs or GC style mini CD format and Sega didn't move the Saturn's release forward and made a sonic platformer for the console, the Playstation would have sold 20 million max.

I also believe that if the PS3 was launched in 2005, without a BR drive and consequently at a lower price, the PS3 would currently have at least 40% of the home console market.

They had the largest wallet and "moneyhatted" (waving away fees and paying for all the advertising) the third parties.. the others couldn't do anything..

If Sega released a console that was reasonably priced and easy to program for and made true Sonic games for it, and if Nintendo had used optical media and realized how valuable squaresoft were to them, Sony would not have been able to moneyhat because the other two would have bigger install bases and third parties would have been forced to go where the customers were. Also, if Nintendo would have actually made a true Mario game as a launch title, it would have rocketed the N64 into first place in no time, and third parties would be forced to support the market leader.

I still like cartridges better than optical meda though :<

Also, if Sega would have made the Sega virtua processor adapter instead of the 32X, and used it to release cheap 3D games for the Megadrive, and make one final software push for it, they would be in a much better position to transit into the next gen.

Sony most certanly doesnt have larger wallet than Nintendo

True, though games were not so easy to port back then. Sony, despite being theoretical last place at the beginning of the 5th gen, would have been an incredible gamble for 3rd parties to be working on, considering they had no console gaming experience at the time. Had Nintendo not scared off 3rd parties, they may have been reluctant to shift away from the current market leader.

As for largest wallet, Sony probably did at the time, but I bet they weren't willing to risk the entire conglomerate's revenue on the Playstation. In other words, there would have been a price point where Sony would have said "Ehh, it's not worth it" and pulled out (this was before the game industry had over 100 million users, keep in mind). Whereas Nintendo and Sega had the entire company value at their expense, and then some (theyd be willing to go into massive debt if they had to, since their companies sole job is gaming)

By a true Mario game, many would consider Mario 64 to be worthy for such a task, and it was a release title.

Are you referring to a true successor to Super Mario Bros/World? Keeping the 2D control and making it sidescrolling like NSMB/NSMB Wii has done recently?

Yes,  think a Sonic game was what many people were waiting for before buying a Saturn, but that never came. I'm willing to bet that the majority who jumped the Sega ship went to the Playstation and not Nintendo (Sony and Sega had a similar strategy of appealing to the more mature audience).

Yes, by true Mario I mean 2D Mario. Of course SM64 was nessecary to prove that Mario could transition into 3D, and it helped launch the N64, but they should have released a classic 2D game along with it just to be safe.