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I have always thought that for a console manufacturer's position as top to be usurped, they need to cock up as well as disruption by a rival.

For example, I believe that if the N64 was launched using CDs or GC style mini CD format and Sega didn't move the Saturn's release forward and made a sonic platformer for the console, the Playstation would have sold 20 million max.

I also believe that if the PS3 was launched in 2005, without a BR drive and consequently at a lower price, the PS3 would currently have at least 40% of the home console market.