I'm actually inclined to agree with the OP here.

Much of the success of the Wii amongst new or casual gamers owed much to very simplified controls that demanded little when it came to accuracy. How many games have relied upon or extensively used rapid shaking of the remote as a primary input? Not coincidentally, these were typically targeted at said audience.

For this reason, I think the Kinect Arcade bundle should do very well over the holidays in addition to the Kinect kits that will be sold to those who are enthused by Microsoft's extensive PR and marketing campaign.

The question is how long will the honeymoon last if many of those early adopters find themselves wrestling with controls that don't live up to the hype?

After the initial hype passes, it will rest squarely upon the quality of Kinect software titles, and that will either be where those teething problems lie, or they will deliver and continue to sell the public on Kinect.

I think it will do very well for the first 6-12 months but once people release the limits of the technology, it will be a similar story to the ps2 eyetoy. it will be a success but not an overwhelming one. where as the ps move will only begin to get started in 6-12 months in as people hear about the technology and how it is actually doing what was promised.

Kinect does suffer from not giving you what buttons give your like running on the spot having to jump when a colour on screen changes instead of just jumping over an obstacle. it will be these pre-rendered stuff that will have people going I would prefer a controller. it's these things and more that I feel are the wall the camera technology on it's own will run into.

yeah sorry for the accusation I was just getting at how the eye's get overlooked Microsoft is even trying to ignore there last venture into the tech even though they know what they learned from it. I understand why they do it and fair enough they seem to be pulling the "new" marketing strategy off.

You are right, when has it ever mattered that a product worked as advertised?

Small trivial detail./ Sarcasm

Not aimed at the OP what so ever but I must admit I find one thing absolutely humoring, and that is that so many assume that casual gamers are morons.

Many don't realize that this line of thinking makes you look quite moronic. Even more so than those you think are morons.

I also believe that Dance Central isn't aimed at just casuals. While I would consider myself a "hardcore" gamer, I find Dance Central to look quite entertaining. I am a big fan of DDR.

I totally agree with the OP but not the title.

Kinect's imperfections will cause it massive problem unlike Wii's.    And MS is doing to themselves by advertising this as a family device.   

It will work fine for adult.  Their may be the odd problem but like the missed swing in Wii Tennis, people will be forgiving and have tons of fun with it.

It will not work at all for children.   Kinect has too many critical variables.  You have to stand so far from the camera.  You have to stand so far away from your friend.  You have to move so slow.   You have to do as the game tells you to do, or it won't work.  You can't sit down.  You can't wear your baggy pj's, or certain other clothes.  You can't, you can't, you can't.

Have you ever seen little kids play Wii?   They're running all over, waggling excessively, standing too close to the tv, getting all exciting.  Not following instructions in the game and just fiddling their way through or asking mommy why it's not working.

With all of Kinect's issues, they will constantly be doing something wrong.  It won't work for them.   They'll be constantly bugging their parents 'Daddy it's not worrrrking....!' which defeats the entire purpose of the machine.  Parents want it to distract the kids, not make more headaches for themselves.

I totally expect to see a rash of poor reviews on Amazon from frustrated moms who barely understands why it doesn't work themselves.   Word of mouth will be very mixed.  And mom's considering it will go with the tried and true Wii instead because they know it works fine.  (Move will always be the too expensive, too few games knock-off Wii)

Kinect will succeed with dance games and exercise - mainly to girlfriends/wives of current 360 owners.

I agree with this entire post. Kinect will probably frustrate kids and parents, especially with the vast amount of requirements to use it. I also agree that even though the Move seems to have numerous games to interest the hardcore as well as the casuals it will always appear too expensive (PS3 Bundle = $350 or more while Wii is $200) and nothing more than a Wii knockoff.

This guy might disagree with you.

You may be right, but I think once people get used to the idea of kinect, it will be fine.  Or the Microsoft name will be tarnished once again.

http://adage.com/article?article_id=145160

Some random thoughts.

Does anyone know what the $50 extension cable is for: http://www.gamestop.com/Catalog/ProductDetails.aspx?product_id=78197. ?

I am not sure how a 16-year-old can really pass judgement on whether the Kinect will work for kids (and "be a worthy advisory for the Wii."

Those who think that NIntendo should have included WM at launch are not versed in the cost research of that add-on (it took three years before it was affordable).

Finally, and most importantly, this (as well as Sony Move) will get driven by software.  Very few "broken" Will games have sold well. (Red Steel would be the most notable exception -- and that was a combination of over-promising and being a launch title more than it truly being broken).  Are any of the Conspiracy-developed games big sellers? Any by UFO? (And I will say, there are actually some good titles among the shovelware).

Casual gamers are not as dumb as people make them out to be. They know when something does not work. And they know not to buy a game that is nothing more than a rehash with new statistics from the year before (look at the sales pattern for Madden or Tiger Woods on the Wii).

Thus, they are not going to buy something that has a $300 entry point if it does not work and does not offer them things to do.

Mike from Morgantown

Kinect doesn't work?  And Microsoft is still selling it?  It's all about advertisement?

Do you really believe Microsoft will market this and hype it up if it didn't work?

I don't think Microsoft can handle another RROD kind of a probolem.

Wonder why Sony is not pushing Move as much though.  I agree Microsoft is great at marketing their stuff, but Sony does too, don't they?

Sony isn't pushing move yet because they don't want to appear like wii copycat/1.5, once they have a full demo of sorcery and other games that show off the things it can do and wii can't they'll advertise more