Xbox 360 hands down... unless PS3 gives out better deals...

Xbox 360 has the Kinect's Bundle coming out... Which comes with Xbox 360 slim arcade and Kinect's for 300$, Halo Reach is coming out

PS3... has a Move Bundle at 400$ last time I checked.

Also Xbox 360 the old model (it changed only minor things) has stood its ground and outsold the PS3 which used to have all the bells and whistles and now is a skeleton of what it used to be which has been successful and outsold Xbox 360 since it's launch that is until the 360 slim came and counter attacked it and now the tables have turned....and I think 360 slim model will have an affect on the Holiday sales... because twice as many people or more seem to be buying 360 slim and you think the people who are planning on buying a PS3 haven't noticed that? Those PS3 customers will think twice because everyone around them seems to be buying 360 slim.

360 has

-Better Value Bundle, Kinects Console 300$

- Halo Reach which everyone will be talking about and new customers will be curious

- XBox 360 slim model sales... making PS3 customers think twice about buying a PS3 and going for a 360 maybe... that maybe will turn atleast some PS3 customers into 360 customers.

PS3 has

- Kinect's bundle at 400$ which is an alright Bundle but looks bad next to Kinects Bundle

If I'm missing something, correct me please.

Not for one week... a 100k bundle... more a little boost after 2-4 weeks... result on 300k? It is not a hardware seller.

Halo 3 has a hardware seller... boost 360 sales for a year or more... maybe more than 1M because Halo 3.

Unless there is a curveball, I'd be willing to bet the farm on 360 significantly outselling the PS3.

A. Momentum off of the slim release and the RRoD stigma change in Others.

B. Halo Reach and Halo fans willingness to buy new consoles to play it on, even though they already own a 360.

C. Preorder charts for Halo Reach.

D. America plus Black Ops

E. Natal and significantly superior advertising over move.

F. The late release of a new arcade sku in slim.

G. The amazing bundles available for the new consoles with new games and custom consoles.

H. Price point of the 360 vs the PS3 in this economy.

PS3 has blu-ray player plus relatively unpushed Move plus GT5. That's a lot of weight to be throwing on GT5's shoulders. Personally, I suspect GT5 won't end the world as we know it saleswise(which is what PS3 fans expect the game to do) and MS wins in a landslide. :P I suspect this year, Reach will outsell it, and the Reach launch will be an international event on the news.

I think it'll be about even.

GT5 is really all Sony has to offer and I'm not expecting Halo numbers for launch sales.

The Kinect will definitely be a hit. But I'm curious to see how much an impact it will have.

If it moves hardware its a hardware seller...And we can't possibly know what kind of a boost Halo 3 gave to the 360 

Except Coca Cola. Move will be on 130 million coca cola products this year. I expect them to kick start the marketing in August.

probably 360 unless the ps3 has a price cut

Microsoft will win beyond a reasonable doubt with the Halo Reach bundle and Kinect bundle. As for the markets, the usual PS3 dominating Japan and  the 360 dominating the Americas. 

Funny, racing fans keep bringing up the concept of "long legs," what does that mean?

Personally, I think counting the numbers of a game  to make the argument it has "long legs" when it has not sold 3 to 5 million in it's 1st year is pointless and almost every single video game executive would agree with me. You can tell from the first month sales, hell even the first week sales whether a game is going to be a huge seller or not.

Blur was released on May 25, 2010 and has sold less than 1 million copies between the PS3 and 360. Forza Motorsports 3 was released in October 2009 and it looks like it will take another 5 to 10 years for it to reach Forza Motorsports 2 numbers.

In a similar vein, Gran Turismo 4 sold 10 million copies. Do you think the publishers of Gran Turismo 5 are expecting it to match? I would think so, but then again it has been 5 years since GT4 and the market has changed.

Here is my argument: the racing genre is no longer on par in relevance compared to the FPS, RPG (including MMORPG), and Action Adventure genre. Yes, Gran Turismo will always sell and we will see Mario Kart and Need for Speed games, but looking at the racing games of this generation compared to the last, the enthusiasm for racing games present in the PS2 era is no longer here.

Please prove me wrong with hard numbers.

DC Universe Online will not sell systems.  It is a new gaming IP and rarely do they push systems unless they are released as part of a console launch.  Also casual gamers will be turned off by the monthly fee.  LBP 2 is not a system seller...  LBP 1 never pushed significant systems so how will LBP 2?

PS3 has GT5 and Move as their key selling points for the holiday.

For 360...  Halo Reach probably won't push many new systems (Halo 3 already grabbed most of those)...  There will be a boost on Reach's release because of the Reach Slim.

Instead 360 will rely on a price drop, the new slim design, and Kinnect for their big selling points.

360 will win simply because many existing owners will upgrade to the new slim.

The wild card is that we are probably not done all the game announcements for 2010 yet.  I can't believe that Rare has spent two years on Kinnect Sports. 

see how unfounded opinions can be proven as just that. the sad part is that the argument against racing games is that shooters are more popular. if that where true all shooters on every platform would sell over 6m units, but i don't see that happening with even 50% of shooters.

it's not that shooters are more popular this gen? it's mostly what developer and publishers are giving us.