jarrod said:
I think Nintendo will be fine this Q4 in America and the major PAL markets (UK, Germany, France, Australia, Spain, etc), but Japan really has bottomed out, and I don't see much hope for recovery. In Japan at least, I really do think we'll see the Wii successor in time for the 2011 holidays, probably with DQX alongside it (yes, still for Wii 1, not Wii 2 or 3DS). DKC and Wii Party should be pretty big this year, but even they're a clear step down from last year's 10-million-or-more-each Wii Sports Resort/Wii Fit Plus/NSMB Wii trifecta. On the plus side, this year's "secondary" sellers (Galaxy 2, Metroid 5, Kirby's Epic Win, etc) blow last year (Punch Out, NPC series... uh, Excitebots?) out of the water. |
Yeah, Japan has shown that they want more than just a strong library. They need another Wii Fit type phenonenon to truly ingivorate Wii there, which Vitality Sensor/ Wii Relax could accomplish. As far as US and Europe, DKC, Wii Party (both 10 million sellers), Kirby, Goldeneye, and Epic Mickey (all potentially 3 million sellers), should be enough to drive momentum there along with the usual rise from the holiday season. This is Wii's best holiday lineup ever, at least since launch.