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Forums - Sales Discussion - I just realized that Nintendo will stay in first place for a long time

RolStoppable said:
Venji said:

Casuals  The Expanded Audience will buy Wii U because of :
Mario Brothers Mii
Wii Fit 3
Mario Kart U (lol)  etc..etc..



A lot of the new Expanded audience are now interested in Wii products and as long as Nintendo offer them improved versions of these titles AND a Killer app that gets everyone talking it will be a success.

The Wii U doesn't have the same "WoW!!" factor that the wii did, but just like portal to Portal 2, I expect there to be improvements across the board that make the Wii U a must buy. I don't think it will be the wildfire that the Wii was but I expect it to sell well ( 65Million + )

With HD graphics and standard button controls + optional Motion controls + IR controls I expect the "hardcore" to be More likely to buy a FPS/Gory game on the Wii U then on the Wii which should push up the attach rate for the first 2 -3 years.

So : Lower Hardware sales, but increased Software.

The new controller is a complete unknown but I did get an interesting feeling seeing the golf ball being hit in WiiU Golf, if they can create that feeling for entire games, it might sell very well.

As another poster said - They showed a 2D mario game as an example, they have SEEN mario 2D far outsell mario 3D. They can't ignore that. Also MORE people bought mario 2D and Mario Kart then all the Hardware sales of GC showing that these games have reached new people (me Included) that will automatically boost the sales of Wii U far beyond the GC if not to the heights of the Wii.

The Wii is still selling well, if your right about the casuals not upgrading it might be that it will do a Ps2 - at least till Wii Fit 3/MK/Dance whatever etc comes out.

One thing that is very important is that they keep the Motion controls in Focus to a degree - I don't think anyone should believe they can't play Golf now that there is a new controller and the trailer did a good job of that (showing the new controller working with the Balance board and the wiimote+)  They will have to include a Wiimote+ and nunchuck in the Package of the WiiU or they will loose everything they gained this gen.

Due to the types of games they showed in the trailer I do not believe they have lost focus on the new or old audience -

Golf, Mario Bros Mii, Wii Fit, Chase Mii, battle Mii, Zelda.

Infact they did a completely different Trailer for 3rd party/Hardcore games.

This is very interesting - just think about that for a while. They are making a 2 tier system within one console. 

Two things:

The 2D Mario game they showed was nothing but a concept title, not something that actually has to be in the works. Hence why it looked exactly like NSMB Wii. They just took some level structures, rearranged them and that's it. Nintendo very well can ignore the sales of 2D Mario and they did just that at this year's E3. They didn't officially announce such a game for the 3DS, instead the entire attention went to Super Mario 3DS. This suggests that there won't be another 2D Mario game coming out within the next twelve months.

The Wii U could end up being a jack of all trades, master of none and as a result serve neither intended audience well. The writing is already on the wall: Hardcore gamers ask why they should buy a Wii U and the people who bought a Wii for motion control games wonder why exactly a new console is needed when its main controller isn't even going to be suited for motion gaming. Whatever Nintendo makes might as well be released for the original Wii.

Even though it was just a tech demo I belive that it is a positive sign of intent.  They created NSMB Wii because the DS version sold so well, I can't imagine Nintendo are as crazy as you think.
The reason they have gone for this 3D mario is because of the new 3D screen. If it doesn't sell well I imagine they will create a 2D version.

The KEY thing that Ninty MUST do is create a Wii Sports like game for WiiU that can't be done on the Wii.  Something to say THIS is a new console and you need it to be happy!  And at least one really cool looking and fun playing HD game to at least interest the hardcore, just tempt them. They need a Halo.

I really hope it doesn't end up a Jack of all trades, and at the moment it doesn't feel like it will be - we shall see going forward into 2012, the next E3 should give us many answers.

One thing to bare in mind - Nintendo play tests alot now, like valve. I can't see them messing it up as badly as you think. then again I wasn't interested in Ninty in the N64/GC days so maybe I'm a little less disillusioned with them.

 

 



Playing : PC  AOE, DiRT 2, Runes of Magic, Wings of Prey & Planetside 2  

Wii U : Nintendoland, Super Mario U  & Fifa 2013 demo

DS : Guitar Hero : On Tour


Formerly unknown as Vengi

http://vgchartz.com/profiles/profile.php?id=2331

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Wii sports sold the Wii
Software thats the key
It's what Ninty does best
So put your mind to rest.



Playing : PC  AOE, DiRT 2, Runes of Magic, Wings of Prey & Planetside 2  

Wii U : Nintendoland, Super Mario U  & Fifa 2013 demo

DS : Guitar Hero : On Tour


Formerly unknown as Vengi

http://vgchartz.com/profiles/profile.php?id=2331

RolStoppable said:
Venji said:

Even though it was just a tech demo I belive that it is a positive sign of intent.  They created NSMB Wii because the DS version sold so well, I can't imagine Nintendo are as crazy as you think.
The reason they have gone for this 3D mario is because of the new 3D screen. If it doesn't sell well I imagine they will create a 2D version.

The KEY thing that Ninty MUST do is create a Wii Sports like game for WiiU that can't be done on the Wii.  Something to say THIS is a new console and you need it to be happy!  And at least one really cool looking and fun playing HD game to at least interest the hardcore, just tempt them. They need a Halo.

I really hope it doesn't end up a Jack of all trades, and at the moment it doesn't feel like it will be - we shall see going forward into 2012, the next E3 should give us many answers.

One thing to bare in mind - Nintendo play tests alot now, like valve. I can't see them messing it up as badly as you think. then again I wasn't interested in Ninty in the N64/GC days so maybe I'm a little less disillusioned with them.

A positive sign would have been showing off a demo of a confirmed launch window title. The thing is we know that Nintendo has made glaring errors in the past and there's no guarantee that they won't make the same mistakes again. Their market cap has plummeted in the last few years as they've repeatedly missed their forecasts. That is a sure sign that things weren't going according to Nintendo's plan.

The whole 3D thing is incredibly dumb. Nintendo tried to ride the wave of a trend, but it looks like 3D already isn't doing a whole lot for movies anymore. 3D isn't as hot as Nintendo anticipated and now it works against them, because they centered the brand of their new handheld around 3D. This makes it hard to just stop with 3D now, so they are trying their best to keep pushing 3D content. But it's a waste of resources. If the market doesn't want 3D, then you better provide something else. Things the market has shown that it wants and NSMB sold more than 25 million copies since it launched in 2006. Getting a sequel out as fast as possible might not be a bad idea.

I agree with you on the 3D, it's not too late to save the 3DS and I hope ninty will wake up to that.  However it's too early to say what they will do with WiiU, I just pray they will learn from the 3DS in time and don't forget what they learnt - and taught us - from the Wii



Playing : PC  AOE, DiRT 2, Runes of Magic, Wings of Prey & Planetside 2  

Wii U : Nintendoland, Super Mario U  & Fifa 2013 demo

DS : Guitar Hero : On Tour


Formerly unknown as Vengi

http://vgchartz.com/profiles/profile.php?id=2331

RolStoppable said:

After Nintendo has the next generation of handhelds pretty much locked with the 3DS, it got me thinking about how things will play out on the home console side and it looks like Nintendo is going to stay on top for a long time there too.

Ever since Nintendo entered this business with the NES and re-established the video game market, there has been some sort of counter culture. For example, "Genesis does what Nintendon't". The competition defines itself as being "not Nintendo" while Nintendo obviously is "Nintendo" (at least most of the time). While Sega got eventually pushed out of the market by Sony, Microsoft reached parity with Sony due to their much deeper pockets.

As long as both Sony and Microsoft stay in the market, neither one of them will be able to beat Nintendo, because the counter culture remains to be split up between them. This counter culture traditionally consists for the most part of male people aged 13-25. It's this age group that makes it necessary for Sony and Microsoft to continue to make more and more "mature" games with the most imaginative and violent ways to kill things.

Many of the biggest third party hits in today's market are also targeted at the same demographic, so Sony and Microsoft will take care to not lose any of those games to the other company. Which means that their next consoles will again be very similar, because neither one of them would want to run into the risk of ending up with a Wii, a console that most third parties pass on because it requires a different approach to make successful games.

Third parties basically want to do things the same way, they are against change. And since Sony and Microsoft want to have third parties on board, they won't want change either. Neither do most of Sony's and Microsoft's main demographic, other consoles becoming like Nintendo is the last thing they would want to see.

All that leaves the ball in Nintendo's court. If they continue to be "Nintendo" they should be fine. However, if they try to become "not Nintendo", like in the Nintendo 64 and Gamecube eras, they will be facing trouble. During those two generations Nintendo tried to sell to the 13-25 year old demographic and we know they failed. But by doing so they also lost their previous fans, because they ceased to be "Nintendo". No 2D Mario, the mother of all killer applications, for two entire generations. This among other things made Nintendo almost slide into complete irrelevance.

But now with two giants fighting over the counter culture and Nintendo being "Nintendo" again, it's unlikely that either Sony or Microsoft will take the crown in the foreseeable future. Both are stuck in their box and trying to break out of it could mean ending up being left with nothing. A risk that probably neither one of them is going to take as gaming is their gateway to get the center of the living rooms in the world in order to sell more than just video games.

Let me get into my time travel device and see if your right?



MrT-Tar said:
ferox said:
13-25 year old demographic is the kiddies market, and Hardcore gamer means that you will play any game on any system, and not a fanboy like the MS/SONY lot.


I wish more people held this views.  Gaming sites would be a whole lot more pleasant.


You wish more people acted all high and mighty on forums and wrote off the other side of the aisle as children who can't play good games except when it comes on their console of choice?  I don't.



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I believe that New Super Mario Mii is going to be launch title for the Wii U (or at least be at the launch window). From all those demos on E3 it was the one with most content. So this will make the Wii U a success for a few moths, but I'm really worried about the fact that new controller will be used for every single game even if it isn't really necessary. For example, Skyward Sword will (probably) archive a new level of immersion because of the Wii Motion Plus, so why I will have use the buttons again to slash the enemies? I think the same logic can be applied for Wii Sports / Wii Play / Wii Party games.



Torillian said:
MrT-Tar said:
ferox said:
13-25 year old demographic is the kiddies market, and Hardcore gamer means that you will play any game on any system, and not a fanboy like the MS/SONY lot.


I wish more people held this views.  Gaming sites would be a whole lot more pleasant.


You wish more people acted all high and mighty on forums and wrote off the other side of the aisle as children who can't play good games except when it comes on their console of choice?  I don't.

I think he was refering to the remark about any game any console, the MS/Sony lot was a pointless addition,

Though there is a good deal of truth to his comments about the "hardcore" being the actual kiddy as it happens to be where the most annoying 12-15 year old males are playing (I've spent the last 2 weeks hearing a good 1/4 of the 12/13 year olds banter non-stop of the greatness of call of duty) and the kids are very quick to gang up and attack anyone that doesn't agree with them. effectively in the early teens it is very much the norm for ps3/xbox fan boys to attack kids that like the wii, or even worse older games.  Though they react in the a similar way to Battlefield (it's a call of duty rip off), Ninja Gaiden (it's a god of war rip off) and Gran Turismo (requires to much patience, probably Forza as well).  Regardless my experience is that xbox/ps3 playing children are quite vitrulant about call of duty, god of war, assassin's creed, and to a lesser extent halo.  Spend some time around school children and prepare for some headache inducing call of duty conversations.



I HAVE A DOUBLE DRAGON CAB IN MY KITCHEN!!!!!!

NOW A PUNISHER CAB!!!!!!!!!!!!!

masschamber said:

I think he was refering to the remark about any game any console, the MS/Sony lot was a pointless addition,

Though there is a good deal of truth to his comments about the "hardcore" being the actual kiddy as it happens to be where the most annoying 12-15 year old males are playing (I've spent the last 2 weeks hearing a good 1/4 of the 12/13 year olds banter non-stop of the greatness of call of duty) and the kids are very quick to gang up and attack anyone that doesn't agree with them. effectively in the early teens it is very much the norm for ps3/xbox fan boys to attack kids that like the wii, or even worse older games.  Though they react in the a similar way to Battlefield (it's a call of duty rip off), Ninja Gaiden (it's a god of war rip off) and Gran Turismo (requires to much patience, probably Forza as well).  Regardless my experience is that xbox/ps3 playing children are quite vitrulant about call of duty, god of war, assassin's creed, and to a lesser extent halo.  Spend some time around school children and prepare for some headache inducing call of duty conversations.


Well sure, people everywhere suck.  Sometimes on staff AIM chat I have to listen to PC fans talk down about anyone who dares use a controller as though they were trying to play their video games by rubbing two sticks together and praying to the Sun.  Anyone who thinks of themselves as better than someone else because of something as idiotic as their choice in gaming and that includes Nintendo fans that think that new games are just for teenagers, teenagers that think Wii games are for babies, and PC fans thinking consoles are just totally beneath true gaming are all a bunch of idiots.  And I'd call differentiating and ranking groups of idiots a fool's venture.

But yes, kids on voice chat are indeed annoying, no argument there.



...

Torillian said:
masschamber said:

I think he was refering to the remark about any game any console, the MS/Sony lot was a pointless addition,

Though there is a good deal of truth to his comments about the "hardcore" being the actual kiddy as it happens to be where the most annoying 12-15 year old males are playing (I've spent the last 2 weeks hearing a good 1/4 of the 12/13 year olds banter non-stop of the greatness of call of duty) and the kids are very quick to gang up and attack anyone that doesn't agree with them. effectively in the early teens it is very much the norm for ps3/xbox fan boys to attack kids that like the wii, or even worse older games.  Though they react in the a similar way to Battlefield (it's a call of duty rip off), Ninja Gaiden (it's a god of war rip off) and Gran Turismo (requires to much patience, probably Forza as well).  Regardless my experience is that xbox/ps3 playing children are quite vitrulant about call of duty, god of war, assassin's creed, and to a lesser extent halo.  Spend some time around school children and prepare for some headache inducing call of duty conversations.


Well sure, people everywhere suck.  Sometimes on staff AIM chat I have to listen to PC fans talk down about anyone who dares use a controller as though they were trying to play their video games by rubbing two sticks together and praying to the Sun.  Anyone who thinks of themselves as better than someone else because of something as idiotic as their choice in gaming and that includes Nintendo fans that think that new games are just for teenagers, teenagers that think Wii games are for babies, and PC fans thinking consoles are just totally beneath true gaming are all a bunch of idiots.  And I'd call differentiating and ranking groups of idiots a fool's venture.

But yes, kids on voice chat are indeed annoying, no argument there.

Given, but some of the call of duty related garbage I've had to deal with has been rediculous I had on more than one occasion to prevent a fight when call of duty kids were going to beat up another kid for not liking call of duty.  Groups of Children making fun of others for not liking call of duty/god of war/assassin's creed occurs in almost every classroom,

Even if fanboys exist for everything, at this time the kids that the biggest games on the ps3/360 appeal to results in the second largest unnecessary headache I have during the week.



I HAVE A DOUBLE DRAGON CAB IN MY KITCHEN!!!!!!

NOW A PUNISHER CAB!!!!!!!!!!!!!

RolStoppable said:
Venji said:

I agree with you on the 3D, it's not too late to save the 3DS and I hope ninty will wake up to that.  However it's too early to say what they will do with WiiU, I just pray they will learn from the 3DS in time and don't forget what they learnt - and taught us - from the Wii

It's only a good year until the Wii U will launch. What they showed so far isn't promising, it even looks like the console is only supporting one of those tablet controllers which makes the whole thing even more baffling. If not all players can use that controller in multiplayer, then why is a that new console needed in the first place? Why can't this controller just be another peripheral for the current Wii?

The answer to both of these questions is third parties. As it is, Wii U doesn't exist because consumers need it. It's made for third parties and this leads to the question why do those who despised the Wii get better treatment than those who liked the Wii? It's mindboggling.

The current wii can't support this controller. The wiiU supports at least 5 way Multiplayer, which is kind of cool.  They haven't actually shown ANY first party games yet. Only smash brothers have been mentioned.   I agree that only one New Controller per system is crazy but they are looking into changing this, however thats the "U" part of the console and the old WiiMote/nunchuck is the "Wii" part.  Is it a good idea? No idea, I haven't seen enough yet.  Really and truly we need to see the first party launch game, and if THAT interests people half as much as Wii Sports then Nintendo has a winner, if not, it's going to be just "ok".

The third party games is a major reason for the WiiU's design, but this isn't a bad thing, or at least it doesn't have to be. Improved graphics isn't the best reason to upgrade but at least it is a vaild one.  A game system that is flexiable enough to support a wide range of game designs might be a good thing, motion controlled gaming practically forced 3rd parties to make games to use that tech, even games that didn't naturally use it.

This was a bold idea by Nintendo but in many cases it didn't work. So now Nintendo is giving companies the option of many different control methods - and hopefully the games they will create will offer us this choice too. ( I really hope game designers will let us use IR from the Wiimote instead of just Dual sticks for FPS games!!)

It has to be noted that quite a lot of Super Mario Brothers Mii has been demoed, I saw quite a long Youtube vid. My gut feeling says that you believe this will really come out but your feeling too annoyed at nintendo to admit it  But if your so sure..then I'll offer you a bet that a 2D mario bros will be either be out or at least announced for WiiU within a year of the consoles release.   Signature Bet. 



Playing : PC  AOE, DiRT 2, Runes of Magic, Wings of Prey & Planetside 2  

Wii U : Nintendoland, Super Mario U  & Fifa 2013 demo

DS : Guitar Hero : On Tour


Formerly unknown as Vengi

http://vgchartz.com/profiles/profile.php?id=2331