To explain my point of view, I'm being fair and calling the VGC numbers false, but since I personally cannot prove it, I also need to claim the NPD numbers as false, so the most fair step would be to simply look at the average between the two, which IS mathematically more precise than either of the two numbers. But even then there is a best case and a worst case scenario.

Average: 237k                                             (NPD - 173k; VGC - 302k)
Best case: 261k           (everything  10%: NPD - 190k; VGC - 332k)
Worst case: 214k        (everything -10%: NPD - 156k; VGC - 272k)

I appreciate the spirit of what you're doing, but I don't think averaging numbers for two sources is going to be "more precise" than either source, especially when the numbers have a pronounced disparity.

well but one of them must be overtracked and one of them must be undertracked. (or in the most unlikely case both are undertracked/overtracked)

Of course we don't know which number is closer to reality, but it's more likely that the average is more correct than either numbers.
Since I see both sources as equally reliable that's the only conclusion that I can draw from this.

If we don't see a good holiday boost, you'll have overestimated the game.

Why should Nintendo change the price NOW; when it can sell enough units with a higher price? A price cut will be fine in a few months too :o

Other M bring back about 20 Mio.... I don´t think it will have higher costs than 28 mio, even this is for a wii game very, very much.... OM will reach this for sure, so no, it won´t be a flop... but maybe no success, either....

The game was expected to break the 1.5-2 million barrier. It's failed to meet expectations, and that would qualify it as a flop.

I'm still going by VGC numbers as that link you gave just doesn't have much credibility (though VGC can be shoddy at times but hey why are we here?).  Still OTHER M SOLD QUITE WELL 510K in 7 weeks is still really good (metroid or not).  I'm still waiting for the link to show Nintendo expected Other M to sell 3M units when the last two Metroid games averaged only 1.35 between them and combined for only 2.7M copies!!!

My predictions:

600K by Christmas

700K-800K within a year

950K-1M lifetime

Correction, it's a Mega Flop. 

;_;

@ khuutra: I won´t repeat me all the time... -.- it failed? Or will it fail?

Yes, wii sales fall because of metroid :D

Let me ask you a question.

Do you want to look at this by NPD or VGChartz numbers for Other M?