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Forums - Sales - Metroid: Other M sales predictions thread

Khuutra said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Khuutra said:

The point I'm getting at is this:

The investment here was enormous for a Metroid game.

It looks like it's going to be the lowest-selling mainline Metroid ever released, including Echoes on the Gamecube.

This don't look good.

Ok it does look bad.

But I don't understand why this happened, how did we get to the stage that Nintendo's most successful console in years is seeing the lowest selling Metroid game I do not know.

The easiest explanation is that you're in the minority in terms of Other M appreciation. More players seem to be disappointed, and bad word of mouth seems to have cut its legs out from under it.

I guess so, there isn't much else to be said here.

This time the hate on the internet turned out to be the majority speaking.

@Beuli2

lol If you really think Other M is a bad game I guess you haven't played many games at all right?



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So its CONFIRMED Metroid: Other M (Wii) sold 173k in NPD

VGChartz had it at 300K

Oh deary dear



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darthdevidem01 said:

So its CONFIRMED Metroid: Other M (Wii) sold 173k in NPD

VGChartz had it at 300K

Oh deary dear


Let's see what happens now.

ioi said that he isn't going to adjust to NPD numbers anymore, though I'm not sure if this is also true for software sales.



As far as individuals saying "How did it come to this, where one of Nintendo's flagship franchises is selling so low?" I have an opinion.

First, Metroid compared to Mario and Zelda has always sold lower from the first iteration of the series. Here are the numbers according to VGChartz, and I am not using arcade games with Mario and Donkey Kong, but am including one title from SNES:

Mario

Super Mario Bros. (NES) - 40.24 million

Super Mario Bros. 2 (NES) - 7.46 million

Super Mario Bros. 3 (NES) - 17.28 million

Super Mario World (SNES) - 20.61 million

Source: http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Mario

Zelda

The Legend of Zelda (NES) - 6.51 million

Zelda 2: The Adventure of Link (NES) - 4.38 million

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (SNES) - 4.61 million

Source: http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Zelda

Metroid

Metroid (NES) - 2.73 million

Metroid 2: The Return of Samus (GB) - 1.76 million

Super Metroid (SNES) - 1.42 million

Source: http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Metroid

Conclusions

The Metroid series has been the bottom of Nintendo's barrel when thrown in with Mario and Zelda. The lowest selling console Metroid was Super Metroid. Metroid: Other M's low sales is on par with the history of the series. Fans expecting Other M to sell 5 million has not shown by history in the Metroid series. No single Metroid game (console or otherwise) has ever sold 3 million or more.

Mario and Zelda went through a sophomore slump with Mario 2 and Zelda 2 selling well less than their predecessor, then eclipsed by their successor. Furthermore, new Zelda and Mario games for each new Nintendo console are hard to predict. The sales dropoff from Ocarina of Time to Twilight Princess is the equivalent of driving over a cliff where the Wii version sold in excess of 5 million, the Gamecube version did not sell 2 million, and Ocarina of Time surpassed 7 million. Mario games are just as hard to predict with Super Mario World 2 selling 4.12 million, Super Mario 64 selling 8.55 million, and Super Mario Sunshine selling 6.28 million. Each new Mario and Zelda console game is a crapshoot in Vegas to say the least.

The expectations for Other M are unfounded. If you study up on your Metroid history, your best educated guess or sales prediction should have been at the 1 to 1.5 million mark. Every Metroid game, with the exception of Metroid Prime (considered noncanon by Sakamoto), has followed a pattern of declining sales starting with Metroid 2 on.

The question remains, why were sales predictions drastically higher than expected by the history of the Metroid franchise?



Killiana1a said:

As far as individuals saying "How did it come to this, where one of Nintendo's flagship franchises is selling so low?" I have an opinion.

First, Metroid compared to Mario and Zelda has always sold lower from the first iteration of the series. Here are the numbers according to VGChartz, and I am not using arcade games with Mario and Donkey Kong, but am including one title from SNES:

Mario

Super Mario Bros. (NES) - 40.24 million

Super Mario Bros. 2 (NES) - 7.46 million

Super Mario Bros. 3 (NES) - 17.28 million

Super Mario World (SNES) - 20.61 million

Source: http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Mario

Zelda

The Legend of Zelda (NES) - 6.51 million

Zelda 2: The Adventure of Link (NES) - 4.38 million

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (SNES) - 4.61 million

Source: http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Zelda

Metroid

Metroid (NES) - 2.73 million

Metroid 2: The Return of Samus (GB) - 1.76 million

Super Metroid (SNES) - 1.42 million

Source: http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Metroid

Conclusions

The Metroid series has been the bottom of Nintendo's barrel when thrown in with Mario and Zelda. The lowest selling console Metroid was Super Metroid. Metroid: Other M's low sales is on par with the history of the series. Fans expecting Other M to sell 5 million has not shown by history in the Metroid series. No single Metroid game (console or otherwise) has ever sold 3 million or more.

Mario and Zelda went through a sophomore slump with Mario 2 and Zelda 2 selling well less than their predecessor, then eclipsed by their successor.

The expectations for Other M are unfounded. If you study up on your Metroid history, your best educated guess or sales prediction should have been at the 1 to 1.5 million mark. Every Metroid game, with the exception of Metroid Prime (considered noncanon by Sakamoto), has followed a pattern of declining sales starting with Metroid 2 on.

The question remains, why were sales predictions drastically higher than expected by the history of the Metroid franchise?

Funny how you chose to ignore anything that was SNES and onwards.

Plus you gotta ask Reggie why he expected those kinds of sales, and Nintendo themselves, who made it seem that this was a very important game for them during E3 2009.



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trestres said:

Funny how you chose to ignore anything that was SNES and onwards.

Plus you gotta ask Reggie why he expected those kinds of sales, and Nintendo themselves, who made it seem that this was a very important game for them during E3 2009.

Please re-read my post, I was busy editing my conclusions section as you were responding. I did speak to N64, GC and Wii games in my conclusions.

Metroid Prime, Ocarina of Time, and Super Mario 64 did not start the phenomenon. Without the original Super Mario Bros., Metroid, and Legend of Zelda, you would have no SNES version on. One may have first played these later iterations because you were not conceived, but the phenomenon was well underway before one was born. I apologize if me saying this offends anyone born around 1988 on and first grew up with an N64, I am just pointing out that the series were well into their 4th and 5th iterations before one first started playing them.

I myself (born in 1984) started playing Mario with the original Super Mario Bros., my first Metroid game was Super Metroid (3rd iteration), and my first Zelda game was A Link to the Past (3rd iteration). I blame my Dad for having Coleco Vision and an operating version of Duckhunt in the early to mid 1990s for me missing the first and second iterations of Zelda and Metroid.

My post is merely pointing out how each of the 3 series has sold starting from the first 3 or so games with an SNES game included. It is a post to show the early history of the series to explain the later history.

The middle matters as I have discussed the sales of N64, GC and Wii versions in my conclusions. That being said, whether a series will be a slow, smoldering burn such as Metroid or an unending phenomenon such as Mario and Zelda will be shown in the first 3 games.

Just my opinion.



Killian1a the problem here is the game is going to majorly undershoot even Nintendo's expectations.

Forget fan's expectations, its not gonna meet Nintendo's expectations in terms of sales, and Nintendo have all those figures you just quoted on hand.



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darthdevidem01 said:

Killian1a the problem here is the game is going to majorly undershoot even Nintendo's expectations.

Forget fan's expectations, its not gonna meet Nintendo's expectations in terms of sales, and Nintendo have all those figures you just quoted on hand.

Expectations should have been internally checked by Nintendo. I am sure Nintendo has at least 20 sales analysts who could have run the numbers on the Metroid franchise. Fact checking by running the numbers on the total sales of each Metroid game, would and should have lowered their internal expectations.

My best guess is Sakamoto promised Iwata and Reggie the pie and diamonds in the sky sales to lead the project as opposed to Miyamoto, who under his guidance Metroid Prime sold more than the original Metroid and the Metroid series is considered by many as the hallmark games in the Metroid franchise.

I can't stop chuckling when I think it is a cruel bit of irony how one of the creators of the Metroid series gets the franchise back from Miyamoto and his vision of Samus via Other M is tracking to sell equal or less than Super Metroid. I bet Miyamoto is laughing up a storm and partying right now over Sakamoto's failure with Other M to meet and beat his vision of the series in Metroid Prime.

I am just conspirizing over here. Is that a real word? What do you think Darthdevidem01?



Killana1a, Echoes is the lowest-selling console Metroid, not Super Metroid. It's right there on the page you linked. Similarly, Metroid Prime is the highest-selling Metroid period.

Worse, this game is never, ever, ever goign to sell as high as other console Metroids. Not any of them, not ever. It's goign to be brutal.

Concerning NPD numbers: we'll see if Brett adjusts his numbers. We had Other M selling more than that in the first week.



Khuutra said:

Killana1a, Echoes is the lowest-selling console Metroid, not Super Metroid. It's right there on the page you linked. Similarly, Metroid Prime is the highest-selling Metroid period.

Worse, this game is never, ever, ever goign to sell as high as other console Metroids. Not any of them, not ever. It's goign to be brutal.

Concerning NPD numbers: we'll see if Brett adjusts his numbers. We had Other M selling more than that in the first week.

Is Week 6 too soon to call that?

The public has definitely sent a message that they don't want this kind of Metroid in future. I'm happy about that. Whether Nintendo takes that in the right way (i.e. going back to either NES Metroid or Metroid Prime style games, which sell well) remains to be seen.

I also think Malstrom was right here (on this specific issue, not everything he says). He's been skeptical since the announcement about its quality and sales potential, long before anyone else could see it. I didn't believe him until I saw how much focus there was on cinematic and narrative, a few months ago.