Honestly no. Looking at PS2 numbers  for Gran Turismo  it was before the PS2 fanbase spilt when microsoft announced a new console(360) You'll never see those numbers again for a GT game, just  like you'll never see Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas  PS2 numbers like that again on a Playstation console while microsoft is in the console market.

Your Japan figure is WAY too high.  GT4 barely cleared a million in Japan, GT5P only sold about 250k (300k were bundled a year later) and GT PSP only did about 250k also.  

Honestly, I think GT5 will be lucky to break a million in Japan, 1.5 would be an insane turnaround for the series there (even GT3 came just shy of 1.5m), where it's been in clear decline (mirroring Mingol almost exactly actually).  More realistically, I think it'll do between just 700-900k.

I posted this behemoth of a message on Saturday, and it’s on page 5, but no one seemed to have directly responded to it. Hyruken you seem to be a very intelligent person, extending my attach rate argument regionally, but resulting in similar figures to mine.

Gran Turismo 5 will not sell as well as prior Gran Turismo titles in the franchise, and since Halo 3 has already outsold every Gran Turismo except for GT3, with Reach excepted to do just as well if not better, it is very unlikely that GT5 will outsell Halo.

However to be reasonable, Gran Turismo will most likely become the second best selling exclusive franchise this generation (on HD consoles). I believe Gears of War is second with just over 6 million for the first, and something like 5.7 million for the second. I defiantly see Gran Turismo out selling that franchise (individually), it just won’t cross Halo’s 11 million plateaus.

Now my last comment was made on Saturday night, and already the thread has doubled in length, so I am going to respond to every reasonable comment since.

Why? Like I said before (and Hyruken picked up), some of you guys are really arrogant with this discussion, and are ignoring the facts.

To Hyruken:

You extended my argument regionally, and I must congratulate you, a very educated and thought out response.

Actually all your responses are excellent, and I agree 100%. Especially about your comment about how many people here assume GT5 will outsell the next top 3 best selling exclusives combined. It is a shockingly poor assessment people are making…

To Ping ii/pezus: (Regarding the MGS counter-example)

Your response to this user base argument fails to consider the type of gamers purchasing these games. Metal Gear Solid, and God of War have sold only about a million less copies then their PS1 and PS2 counterparts, but considering the huge difference in install base that is an acceptable argument. However unlike those franchises, Halo, Grand Theft Auto, Final Fantasy, Call of Duty, Super Mario, Mario Kart, and yes even Gran Turismo sales are heavily influenced by install base.

This is because they appeal to everyone. I am talking about casual gamers. It’s hard to own a Wii and not buy Mario Kart, or an X-Box and not own Halo. If you’re a typical gamer who plays occasionally, you will at least know that your Nintendo is well know for Mario games, and you are likely going to pick it up.

For whatever console you have, be it a Wii, 360 or PS3, most gamers will be aware of the flagship franchise, and debate purchasing it. You will not necessarily be aware of the super highly rated, but far less hyped titles. So for just as much reason as install base is relevant for Halo games, Gran Turismo sales rate is heavily dependant on PS3’s install base.

God of War and Metal Gear Solid are not nearly as hyped, and a part of media as Gran Turismo, Halo, and Mario are, and are not a valid counter example for the install base argument, simple as that.

Also P.S. Metal Gear Solid 4 is the highest rated MGS game, and it only sold better then the most poorly rated console MGS game. It still undersold MGS1 and 2 by nearly half! So install base was still extremely important, even if GT5 fell under the same bracket as MGS, you should still only expect sales of 6-7 million units, and that is assuming it gets a near perfect review, significantly higher then previous titles.

To Ping ii (Regarding GT5 versus Forza 3 sales)

Compare Forza Motorsport 3 sales to Gran Turismo sales. On a weekly basis (at least for the first 20 weeks I checked), Forza 3 was outselling Gran Turismo 3! These super realistic racing simulators mainly appeal to casual gamers, so it takes time for their sales volume to accumulate. So you never know, Forza Motorsport 3 could still outsell Gran Turismo 5, or at least break 7 million sales. It’s already at 2.7 million sales, with a higher sales rate then Forza Motorsport 2 at the same time after launch (and Forza 2 sold 4 million units). It’s also continuously selling 35,000-60,000 units and making the top 30 in terms of game sales.

So :P

To chuckyj1: (Regarding GT5 Pre-orders)

Gran Turismo 5 has about 75,000 America’s Preorders and changing at a rate of about 1,000 a week currently. You assumed pre-orders would remain at this constant rate, but that’s inacceptable. You have to realize that as the release date draws near, the pre-order rate increases exponentially, not linearly. Halo 3 had 2.75 million pre-orders, and I believe Reach will cross 3 million pre-orders in USA/Canada, not just 1 million pre-orders. Under the same token I can see Gran Turismo having 500,000 USA/Canadian pre-orders, and possible 1M worldwide.

To Ping ii (Regarding the harsh Gran Turismo total sales)

Of course Gran Turismo total sales are greater then Halo total worldwide sales. Gran Turismo has been around for 5 years longer, and sold on consoles whose combined install base is 240 million (excuding PS3 and Prologue for now). That’s 4 times as large as the Xbox and 360 install base of 64 million, and Halo sales are only half the total Gran Turismo sales.

Halo is selling almost 3 times as well as Gran Turismo (27-35% attach rate versus 10%). You sir, as you said it yourself “clearly don’t know jack shit you should stop commenting seriously”

To boilmaker11: (Regarding GT3 selling on PS2 prior to PS2 having a 136 million install base)

Valid argument, actually THE BEST argument I have heard contradicting GT5 selling less then Hyruken and I predicted. It is true that GT3 came out in 2001, and sold most of it’s 15 million units within 4 years before GT4, great observation.

However the Gran Turismo franchise is a type of game that initially doesn’t sell that well, but sales are continuous and accumulate. By 2005 the PS2 still had roughly 100 million units on the market, which gives a 15% attach rate. Using that attach rate (and predicted PS3 total sales in 3 years), we see that Gran Turismo 5’s total worldwide sales will come very close to 10 million (I calculate 9.75 million with this argument). You must also extend this argument to Halo 3 to be fair, which sold 8.1 million copes when there were only 17.7 million X-Box 360’s (end of 2007). That’s a 45.7% attach rate, so should I expect to see Halo: Reach selling 20.6 million units too?

I compared Gran Turismo sales over a 4 year period of time because throughout those 4 years the games sales accumulated. GT3 did not sell over 5 million units it’s first year when 30 million PS2’s were around and the attach rate is still the same.

However according to you, Halo Reach will sell 20.6 million units by January 2011. Wow, amazing! Comparing Halo 3 exactly to Halo Reach, this means that an additional 8 million units will be sold over time. THAT’S 29 million units for Halo Reach compared to 10 million for Gran Turismo 5….

Good counter-example, but it works against you.

To pezus: (Regarding GT4 selling less then GT3)

Good observation, and that is a counter-example for the install base argument, however you have to realize GT4 came out in 2005. The same year the X-Box 360 was released, and just a year before the PS3 was released. GT4 had much less time to accumulate sales, and Gran Turismo is a franchise which needs time to accumulate sales. 4 years versus about 2 for GT3 versus GT4…

To ultraslick: (Regarding your opinion)

You have absolutely no evidence to back up your claim. This is just your opinion.

If you follow my arguments, Halo is actually a larger franchise, not the minority…so your just wrong buddy.

To iWarMachine: (Regarding regional sales)

Actually Gran Turismo sales will most likely be mostly focuses on Europe and Others. Forza 3 is selling 30% more copies in Europe despite Europe having 30% less 360’s.

As for Halo having strong sales in primarily the Americas, more then 50% of 360’s are sold in Americas, and as a console (not handheld) market, the Americas is almost exactly as large as everywhere else in the world combined. So Halo will still do well. :P

To: Squillium (Regarding your response to my comment)

I am comparing the sales rates of Halo versus Gran Turismo using install bases. If I compared how many apples versus oranges were sold at a supermarket by knowing how many people liked apples versus oranges, this would be the same thing. However I don’t care about damn apples, Joking…

No seriously, you’re arguing that once you have a racing game, that you will not need another one. Yet you need another Halo because of a “new story, new location, and people want to get involved and playing with their friends from day one.”

I am a HUGE racing game fan, I have Gran Turismo 1-4, and 5 Prologue. I have Forza 1-3, Project Gotham Racing 1-4, Every Mario Kart except for Wii (because I don’t own a Wii), and a few more racing games. Racing games quickly become outdated. Not only do new cars become released, new tracks get created (many GT and Forza tracks are artificial, and do not actually exist), but graphics improve over time, AI improve over time, and competitors will create new features in their games which you may want to implement. Not to mention, once you beat the main career mode, you will be craving more! If your logic held, I would still be playing PGR3, and Forza 2, but I beat those games, and new versions have more EVERYTHING! Now you can add new cars to the game via dlc, but do you really think polymorph, or any other developer will release 500 additional cars for $20? Turn 10 is charging 400 MP, or $5, for 10 cars! The game came with over 400. GT4 added over 400 cars to the game, new tracks, improved AI and cars, as well as an assortment of new goodies.

Sorry racing games, just like FPS get outdated.

However you also bring into the argument that Polymorph will likely not develop a GT6 for the PS3, so GT5 sales will not be derailed. There are two potential flaws to this argument, one of which at least is bound to be true.

1.Polymorph has spent 50 times more money on GT5 then it did on the original GT, mainly because they rebuilt the GT engine to accommodate for damage, improved AI, and HD gaming. Do you not think that with this much time developing the base game, that Sony will not try to gain more profits by releasing GT6 on the PS3? I think they will.

2.The PS3 was released in 2006, while the 360 was released in 2005. Prior to this generation, a typical console had a lifespan of 6 years. By typical I mean the big consoles, Nintendo’s PS1, PS2, Genesis, etc. Most consoles had a far shorter lifespan. Now it is true this generation will last longer then prior generations due to the initial cost of development for the PS3 and 360. However how long do you think that will be? 8 years, maybe 10? Okay well from the 360 release that means at least one of the next gen consoles will release by 2013-2015. that means GT5 still only has 3-5 years to accumulate sales, which is the same as GT1 and 3. So GT5 sales will not gain much of an advantage if GT6 comes out for PS4 instead of PS3.

Thanks for replying to my comment, your the only one. Sad how people ignore the big giant comment which explains everything.

STICK THIS IN YOUR PIPES AND SMOKE IT FANBOYS! THIS IS LOGIC, NOT OPINION!

:P

Wow what a long comment… however I just proved a point, and it is something everyone can go home and accept. Just try and debate this, I dare you. You’re going to lose.

However for those who read it, I must say that boilmaker11, hyruken, and Squillium are the only other people in this thread who have really made a valid argument. Just want to say, good comments to all of you, especially boilmaker11, and hyruken.

Now I’m tired, I’ll respond Tuesday to all this, im a busy man and….I really shouldn’t make comments. They waste so much of my time. I know I’m right, I don’t need to prove it to the 40 people at best who read this.

Alright, time to crush this attach rate argument here...

The obvious problem with comparing GT3's attach rates (now) with Halo 3's attach rate, is the massive amount of PS2's sold after GT3 was no longer being bought. To solve this, I'll show you specific dates in which GT3 had already sold most of its copies (with not too many PS2's sold):

Week ending August 19th, 2001: Japan's GT3 sales at about 1.7mil with 5.5mil PS3's sold, or a 31% attach rate. That's close enough to the current userbase of the PS3, so if GT5 is a hit / still popular there, we can expect at least 1.5mil from that region.

End of March 2003 (see page 31): Over 11 million copies of GT3 were shipped by the end of March 03. Since under 2 million were shipped to Japan, we know that at least 9 million were shipped outside Japan, so... That's over 9 million GT3 copies shipped to ~35 million PS2 consoles sold (VGC), likely close to a 25% attach rate in the west.

Attach rate really doesn't tell us much, since there are too many outside factors (like PS2's extremely fast rate of consoles sold), I don't think it's worth putting that much weight on.

As for other factors:

While people have mentioned Halo's popularity has constantly been increasing, the same can be said for Gran Turismo. Although the second title per console always performs worse, the first of the console (GT1, GT3, soon GT5) performs well. The exception here is European sales, which increased with every release besides GT2. Expect GT5's Europe to be nearly on par with Halo in America.

The increased competition (such as Forza 3) may mean less GT sales, but the same can be said for Halo. CoD is surely the bigger franchise out of the two, yet people think Halo will still do fine. I think the same will probably happen for GT5.

Bundles. I have no idea how many American copies of GT3 were sold due to bundles, so this could hurt the past sales' arguments for GT5 by quite a bit.

As for my prediction? I see GT5 selling at least 1.5mil in Japan, 3 million in America, and 5.5 million in Europe, which would clear 10. I just don't know how far it can go after that, though.

To Solid_Snake4RD

Yes the Halo Franchise is growing in popularity, and there is no indication that it is “stabilizing.” Halo has sold 2-3 million more units per main franchise game, abd the X-Box consoles have become more and more popular over time. 4 years into this generation, and the 360 is still holding second.

Halo 3 sold 8.1 million copies when the 360 only had 17.7 million units available to play on. Now the 360 has over 40 million units, and that number will easily be above 45 million by the end of the year. How can you still believe that Halo Reach will not outsell Halo 3? It’s obvious that it will. Halo 3 was a 9.5 title, if 85% of Halo 3 owners get Reach and 10% of  the last 22 ( 5 for the rest of the year) million 360 owners get Reach, it will outsell Halo 3.

Halo Reach could sell up to 25 million units potentially, do you not understand how popular this franchise has gotten? The X-Box 360 has twice the install base it had during the launch of any prior Halo title, that means it could double any prior Halo games.

You can’t just make a response saying my post is flawed, it has so many weaknesses, and make an extremely arrogant and weak response like this.

GT outselling Halo is your opinion, and you have no evidence to support your claims.

Yes GT3 sold on PS2 before it sold 136 million units, However that very first year it released the game sold about 1.5 million copies (less then Forza 3 look it up!), and PS2 had 20 million units out by then. That still hold the same attach rate as if I gave the game 4 years to accumulate sales. 15 million on a console with 100 million is 15%, 1.5 million on a console with 20 million is 7.5%. Either way it’s much much less then the 25-35% Halo games get, and if I apply that logic, Halo 3 gets an attach rate of 45% and Halo 1 is over 80% since it was a launch title.

Your response is just ignorant. Don’t waste my time, do some research.

To Hynad: (Regarding the point of these long posts)

After I wrote my massive post, I was thinking, why did I bother with that? I came to the conclusion that I really get annoyed by arrogant people. It’s not really about the sales for me, but I’m surprised at some of the Halo numbers I got (soooo high!). I’m just annoyed that some people believe without a doubt that GT5 will be that one super high selling PS3 exclusive franchise. It won’t! PS3 is selling well now because of the huge PS3 slim/price cut they announced last year, but I don’t think that momentum is going to last. This site is mostly composed of PS3 fanboys, and fangirls, and just the stupidity of some of their comments, without any evidence to back it up astounds me.

If you look at my profile I have made like 10 posts before here, and after this I do not intend to make any more. I’ll let dumb people be dumb, and wait for the numbers to compound, and summarize all the data on my Game Trailers account (Same name). I’ve been keeping up with sales data for 3 years now, so I think I understand this stuff more then most people.

To Solid_Snake4RD (Regarding Competition)

The same year Halo 3 was released Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, The Orange Box, and Uncharted, three of the best shooters this generation were released.

This fall Halo Reach as to compete with Call of Duty: Black Ops, and Medal of Honour. Much less competition there buddy.

Gran Turismo 3 only had to compete against Midnight Club.

Gran Turismo 5 has to compete against Forza, Test Drive, Need for Speed, Burnout, Blur, Race Pro, Split/Second, Project Gotham Racing, etc. Remember GT games have accumulating sales, so anything that launches next year is competition.

So this whole competition argument favours Halo. Halo has less competition, and Gran Turismo has more. Just more reason to believe Halo Reach will sell 15-20 million.

To Hynad: (Regarding your response)

I’m not saying I’m right, I could be very very wrong, but almost all evidence I see in this thread supports Halo Reach drastically outselling Gran Turismo 5 sales. I’m asking people to debate this, but biased on the evidence people give in their responses, I don’t think anyone has a good reason to think otherwise. Most people just say, GT5 will outsell Halo because GT 5 is a bigger franchise, or some other silly reason, and I show that no GT is not a bigger franchise, only 1 in 10 console owners pick up a GT game where Halo gets a lot more sales.

Like I said boilmaker and hyruken, only intelligent responses, and because of boilmakers response, I am going to make another comment saying my direct opinion (which I haven’t expressed yet)

Seriously, I ask you guys to debate this. I only called some people fanboys because I haven’t heard anybody here make a silly comment saying “Halo will outsell GT5 because it’s a better game” or something silly like that. Most of the Halo comments seem supported, but the GT arguments lack foundation.

I’ll stop using the term fanboys, I was just getting annoyed at the arrogance of some of the comments.

To rossoner (Regarding Halo Reach Pre-orders)

Halo Reach has less americas pre-orders then Halo 3, but the game isn’t due for an additional 3 months. Halo 3 only had a little over 1 million pre-orders, and at this rate Halo Reach will likely double Halo 3 pre-orders.

To hyruken: (Regarding PS2 year one sales)

I remember the PS2 was like $500 for the first few months, and I got mine for $300 about 6 months after launch. Good point, it’s silly how people come after you for a mis-understanding and not me. Are my points accepted then? Does everyone agree with me that Reach will outsell GT5?

Now I’m just being an ass, good comment Hyruken.

To jarrod: (Regarding Bundles)

Nintendo bundled Wii Sports to show the innovation of that console. It severaly helped increase sales, but overall does not cost the same as other full priced games to develop. Wii would probably only of had a $20-30 price difference without the bundle.

As for GT5, they should bundle it with a Slim PS3. MGS4 is the best selling exclusive PS3, and it was launched bundled. I remember specifically because the MGS4 edition PS3 was the last backward compatible PS3, and my friend picked it up.

A bundled GT5 will defiantly boost sales, but I disagree with you on your original post. I think Reach will outsell GT5 regardless. Past GT games were bundled too (like GT3 and GT4), so I still think 8 million for GT5.

Good comment

To cOrd (Regarding attach rates)

First of all this comment look intelligent, so thanks for posting. You gave a world wide attach rate of Gran Turismo 3 as 25%, so I will accept that. However compare GT3 to Halo 3. 8.1 million units on a console with 17.7 million units by the end of 2007. That’s a 45.8% attach rate, almost double Gran Turismo’s :P

As for Gran Turismo gaining popularity, good point, but GT4 sold only 2/3rds as well as GT3, where GT2 only sold about one and a half million less then GT1. A significantly bigger drop, so we can’t assume Gran Turismo is becoming more popular. Halo on the other hand has seen a steady increase in sale, not only of the games, but the comic books too. It’s very likely for Reach sales to surpass 14 million (following the trend halo games have had), but it could do even better since the install base is twice as large as it has ever been before.

As for competition, both Halos had a Call of Duty to compete with, Halo 3 had Modern Warfare, Reach has Black Ops. The fact remains that infinity ward Call of Duty games not only sell better, but get better reviews, and until Modern Warfare, Call of Duty was a 1.5 million copy game. Modern Warfare was a much stronger competition then Black Ops was. Halo 3 also had The Orange Box too.

Gran Turismo 4 had to compete with Forza 1, but due to the X-Box’s lack of popularity that’s not really that much competition, and GT4 still suffered sales wise. Forza 3 is the most highly rated racing game this generation, it’s more competition Gran Turismo ever had to deal with.

Thanks for the comments people

I dunno, I think they'll do it like the other bundles... premium priced, but with a bigger HDD offsetting that.  The game's still "free" in a sense then.

Also, if Wii has launched without Wii Sports packed in it'd have probably been $200.  And still profitable. Like it was in Japan.