Michael-5 said:
The simple answer is No
Whoever wrote the first post in this thread is incredibly ignorant, and everyone who supports him lack an understanding of game sales. Not to be insulting, Gran Turismo is a great franchise, but Gran Turismo 5 will sell more poorly then all other prior Gran Turismo console titles, and Halo: Reach will be the best selliong Halo of all time, possibly even out seeling the best selling Gran Turismo of all time.
Why do I beleive this? Because GT1-4 were sold on the PS1 and PS2, two consoles which are far more popular then the PS3, and simply have a larger instal base. Gran Turismo in the past has outsold Halo titles, but Halo sold 5-11 million copies on consoles having an instal base of either 24 million (X-box) or 40 million (X-box 360). Compare then to PS1's instal base of over 100 million, and PS2's instal base approaching 140 million, thats an incredible acheivement for the Halo franchise. It's like bringing a knife to a gun fight and tieing. PS3 is not the same system as PS1 and PS2 were, and since there is a significantly smaller instal base, this means a significantly smaller sales rate, where Halo will work just the opposite.
Lets look at the real important figures, it's about analysing the data, not just compileing it and making statements without sound backing.
Gran Turismo 1 sold 10.85 million units on a PS1, with an instal base of 102.49 million, thats an attach rate of 10.6%. Follwing the same logic for Gran Turismo 1-4, and Halo 1-3 we get these results in order from largest to smallest.
Halo 2 - 35.1%
Halo 3 - 27.9%
Halo 1 - 26.8%
Halo 3: ODST - 12.9%
Gran Turismo 3 - 10.9%
Gran Turismo 1 - 10.6%
Gran Turismo 2 - 9.1%
Gran Turismo 4 - 7.7%
Even Halo 3: ODST which is not a porper mainstream Halo FPS title (Just like how Prologue isn't a proper Gran Turismo title), has a higher attach rate then any Gran Turismo game. Now assuming that the PS3 will have a final console sales figure of 65 million units (which is reasonable), and say Gran Turismo 5 has an attach rate of 11%, higher then any Gran Turismo title in the past, you will still see Gran Turismo only selling 7.15 million units. I agree with that figure, I really doubt Gran Turismo will sell more then 8 million units.
However Halo: Reach, lets just say it has an attach rate of 27% (the lowest of all mainstream Halo's), and lets say that the 360's final sales will also be 65 million in the end (although I personally feel Microsoft will get closer to 70 million and outsell the PS3, I am purposly lowering this figure to avoid conflict with many PS3 fanboys. This however gives Gran Turismo a little extra edge). This means that Halo Reach will sell 17.55 million units total.
Let me repeat, using mathamatics (something fanboys are un aware of), and analyzing sales, we see predicted sales of:
Halo: Reach - 17.55 million
Gran Turismo 5 - 7.15 million
Personally I don't think Halo: Reach will break 15 million sales, but you never know, Modern Warfare 2 surprised us all, and Halo is a more popular and better rated franchise (on the 360, overall Call of Duty is more popular).
Now some fanboys may argue this logic, but I have both consoles, and plan to get both games. So you can't label me favoring either side, I am simply analyzing the market.
The thing is this logic is sound for non super hardcore titles. Mario Kart Wii sold 22 million units on the Wii which has roughly 70 million sales. Mario Kart Double Dash sold 7 million on a console with 21 million sales. 3.5 times as many consoles, 3 times as many sales. Halo works the same way, Halo 3 has nearly doubled Halo 1's sales, and..the 360 is still 8 million sales short of doubling the original sales. Gran turismo even follows this pattern, Gran Turismo 3 sold 27% more copies then GT1, and PS2 sold 25% more units.
Astonishing what math and science do!!! I can predict future sales with the data!!
Now, reading some other points there are other factors at play.
1. Halo has more competition this fall, well thats just wrong. Halo 3 had to compete against Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, and Uncharted. Halo Reach has to compete against Medal of Honor, and Call of Duty: Black Ops...Well Treyarch CoD titles have never been as popular as infinity wards titles, and with infinity ward falling apart, this Call of Duty will most likely sell less then Modern Warfare 1 and 2, and possibly even World at War.
2. Gran Turismo has more competition then prior titles, True! Forza is a much more popular selling franchise then ever before. If you compare Forza Motorsport 3 week by week sales, they are supperior to Gran Turismo 3's!
3. Gran Turismo 1 and 3 were released close to the launch of the console, where GT5 is being launched more mid-life, similar to GT2 and 4, so if anything it will mirror GT2 and GT4 sales, True. I predicted GT5 selling a little over 7 million units, GT2 and 4 sold rouhly 10 million units. If Reach outsells Halo 3, which it will most likely do, it still outsells Gran Turismo. It doesn't even have to outsell Halo 3, just has to sell 90% as well to follow through.
4. Many racing fans (myself included), switched over to 360 for it's many exclusive racing titles. Project Gotham Racing 3-4, Forza 2-3, Test Drive Unlimited, Race Pro, etc. It's been 4 years since the PS3's launch, that is simply too long for many and will deminish some sales.
So basically, Halo: Reach will easily outsell Gran Turismo 5 sales, and likely double them (according to my predictions baised on simple mathematics).
Shove that in your pipe and smoke it :P
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I posted this behemoth of a message on Saturday, and it’s on page 5, but no one seemed to have directly responded to it. Hyruken you seem to be a very intelligent person, extending my attach rate argument regionally, but resulting in similar figures to mine.
Gran Turismo 5 will not sell as well as prior Gran Turismo titles in the franchise, and since Halo 3 has already outsold every Gran Turismo except for GT3, with Reach excepted to do just as well if not better, it is very unlikely that GT5 will outsell Halo.
However to be reasonable, Gran Turismo will most likely become the second best selling exclusive franchise this generation (on HD consoles). I believe Gears of War is second with just over 6 million for the first, and something like 5.7 million for the second. I defiantly see Gran Turismo out selling that franchise (individually), it just won’t cross Halo’s 11 million plateaus.
Now my last comment was made on Saturday night, and already the thread has doubled in length, so I am going to respond to every reasonable comment since.
Why? Like I said before (and Hyruken picked up), some of you guys are really arrogant with this discussion, and are ignoring the facts.
To Hyruken:
You extended my argument regionally, and I must congratulate you, a very educated and thought out response.
Actually all your responses are excellent, and I agree 100%. Especially about your comment about how many people here assume GT5 will outsell the next top 3 best selling exclusives combined. It is a shockingly poor assessment people are making…
To Ping ii/pezus: (Regarding the MGS counter-example)
Your response to this user base argument fails to consider the type of gamers purchasing these games. Metal Gear Solid, and God of War have sold only about a million less copies then their PS1 and PS2 counterparts, but considering the huge difference in install base that is an acceptable argument. However unlike those franchises, Halo, Grand Theft Auto, Final Fantasy, Call of Duty, Super Mario, Mario Kart, and yes even Gran Turismo sales are heavily influenced by install base.
This is because they appeal to everyone. I am talking about casual gamers. It’s hard to own a Wii and not buy Mario Kart, or an X-Box and not own Halo. If you’re a typical gamer who plays occasionally, you will at least know that your Nintendo is well know for Mario games, and you are likely going to pick it up.
For whatever console you have, be it a Wii, 360 or PS3, most gamers will be aware of the flagship franchise, and debate purchasing it. You will not necessarily be aware of the super highly rated, but far less hyped titles. So for just as much reason as install base is relevant for Halo games, Gran Turismo sales rate is heavily dependant on PS3’s install base.
God of War and Metal Gear Solid are not nearly as hyped, and a part of media as Gran Turismo, Halo, and Mario are, and are not a valid counter example for the install base argument, simple as that.
Also P.S. Metal Gear Solid 4 is the highest rated MGS game, and it only sold better then the most poorly rated console MGS game. It still undersold MGS1 and 2 by nearly half! So install base was still extremely important, even if GT5 fell under the same bracket as MGS, you should still only expect sales of 6-7 million units, and that is assuming it gets a near perfect review, significantly higher then previous titles.
To Ping ii (Regarding GT5 versus Forza 3 sales)
Compare Forza Motorsport 3 sales to Gran Turismo sales. On a weekly basis (at least for the first 20 weeks I checked), Forza 3 was outselling Gran Turismo 3! These super realistic racing simulators mainly appeal to casual gamers, so it takes time for their sales volume to accumulate. So you never know, Forza Motorsport 3 could still outsell Gran Turismo 5, or at least break 7 million sales. It’s already at 2.7 million sales, with a higher sales rate then Forza Motorsport 2 at the same time after launch (and Forza 2 sold 4 million units). It’s also continuously selling 35,000-60,000 units and making the top 30 in terms of game sales.
So :P
To chuckyj1: (Regarding GT5 Pre-orders)
Gran Turismo 5 has about 75,000 America’s Preorders and changing at a rate of about 1,000 a week currently. You assumed pre-orders would remain at this constant rate, but that’s inacceptable. You have to realize that as the release date draws near, the pre-order rate increases exponentially, not linearly. Halo 3 had 2.75 million pre-orders, and I believe Reach will cross 3 million pre-orders in USA/Canada, not just 1 million pre-orders. Under the same token I can see Gran Turismo having 500,000 USA/Canadian pre-orders, and possible 1M worldwide.
To Ping ii (Regarding the harsh Gran Turismo total sales)
Of course Gran Turismo total sales are greater then Halo total worldwide sales. Gran Turismo has been around for 5 years longer, and sold on consoles whose combined install base is 240 million (excuding PS3 and Prologue for now). That’s 4 times as large as the Xbox and 360 install base of 64 million, and Halo sales are only half the total Gran Turismo sales.
Halo is selling almost 3 times as well as Gran Turismo (27-35% attach rate versus 10%). You sir, as you said it yourself “clearly don’t know jack shit you should stop commenting seriously”
To boilmaker11: (Regarding GT3 selling on PS2 prior to PS2 having a 136 million install base)
Valid argument, actually THE BEST argument I have heard contradicting GT5 selling less then Hyruken and I predicted. It is true that GT3 came out in 2001, and sold most of it’s 15 million units within 4 years before GT4, great observation.
However the Gran Turismo franchise is a type of game that initially doesn’t sell that well, but sales are continuous and accumulate. By 2005 the PS2 still had roughly 100 million units on the market, which gives a 15% attach rate. Using that attach rate (and predicted PS3 total sales in 3 years), we see that Gran Turismo 5’s total worldwide sales will come very close to 10 million (I calculate 9.75 million with this argument). You must also extend this argument to Halo 3 to be fair, which sold 8.1 million copes when there were only 17.7 million X-Box 360’s (end of 2007). That’s a 45.7% attach rate, so should I expect to see Halo: Reach selling 20.6 million units too?
I compared Gran Turismo sales over a 4 year period of time because throughout those 4 years the games sales accumulated. GT3 did not sell over 5 million units it’s first year when 30 million PS2’s were around and the attach rate is still the same.
However according to you, Halo Reach will sell 20.6 million units by January 2011. Wow, amazing! Comparing Halo 3 exactly to Halo Reach, this means that an additional 8 million units will be sold over time. THAT’S 29 million units for Halo Reach compared to 10 million for Gran Turismo 5….
Good counter-example, but it works against you.
To pezus: (Regarding GT4 selling less then GT3)
Good observation, and that is a counter-example for the install base argument, however you have to realize GT4 came out in 2005. The same year the X-Box 360 was released, and just a year before the PS3 was released. GT4 had much less time to accumulate sales, and Gran Turismo is a franchise which needs time to accumulate sales. 4 years versus about 2 for GT3 versus GT4…
To ultraslick: (Regarding your opinion)
You have absolutely no evidence to back up your claim. This is just your opinion.
If you follow my arguments, Halo is actually a larger franchise, not the minority…so your just wrong buddy.
To iWarMachine: (Regarding regional sales)
Actually Gran Turismo sales will most likely be mostly focuses on Europe and Others. Forza 3 is selling 30% more copies in Europe despite Europe having 30% less 360’s.
As for Halo having strong sales in primarily the Americas, more then 50% of 360’s are sold in Americas, and as a console (not handheld) market, the Americas is almost exactly as large as everywhere else in the world combined. So Halo will still do well. :P
To: Squillium (Regarding your response to my comment)
I am comparing the sales rates of Halo versus Gran Turismo using install bases. If I compared how many apples versus oranges were sold at a supermarket by knowing how many people liked apples versus oranges, this would be the same thing. However I don’t care about damn apples, Joking…
No seriously, you’re arguing that once you have a racing game, that you will not need another one. Yet you need another Halo because of a “new story, new location, and people want to get involved and playing with their friends from day one.”
I am a HUGE racing game fan, I have Gran Turismo 1-4, and 5 Prologue. I have Forza 1-3, Project Gotham Racing 1-4, Every Mario Kart except for Wii (because I don’t own a Wii), and a few more racing games. Racing games quickly become outdated. Not only do new cars become released, new tracks get created (many GT and Forza tracks are artificial, and do not actually exist), but graphics improve over time, AI improve over time, and competitors will create new features in their games which you may want to implement. Not to mention, once you beat the main career mode, you will be craving more! If your logic held, I would still be playing PGR3, and Forza 2, but I beat those games, and new versions have more EVERYTHING! Now you can add new cars to the game via dlc, but do you really think polymorph, or any other developer will release 500 additional cars for $20? Turn 10 is charging 400 MP, or $5, for 10 cars! The game came with over 400. GT4 added over 400 cars to the game, new tracks, improved AI and cars, as well as an assortment of new goodies.
Sorry racing games, just like FPS get outdated.
However you also bring into the argument that Polymorph will likely not develop a GT6 for the PS3, so GT5 sales will not be derailed. There are two potential flaws to this argument, one of which at least is bound to be true.
1.Polymorph has spent 50 times more money on GT5 then it did on the original GT, mainly because they rebuilt the GT engine to accommodate for damage, improved AI, and HD gaming. Do you not think that with this much time developing the base game, that Sony will not try to gain more profits by releasing GT6 on the PS3? I think they will.
2.The PS3 was released in 2006, while the 360 was released in 2005. Prior to this generation, a typical console had a lifespan of 6 years. By typical I mean the big consoles, Nintendo’s PS1, PS2, Genesis, etc. Most consoles had a far shorter lifespan. Now it is true this generation will last longer then prior generations due to the initial cost of development for the PS3 and 360. However how long do you think that will be? 8 years, maybe 10? Okay well from the 360 release that means at least one of the next gen consoles will release by 2013-2015. that means GT5 still only has 3-5 years to accumulate sales, which is the same as GT1 and 3. So GT5 sales will not gain much of an advantage if GT6 comes out for PS4 instead of PS3.
Thanks for replying to my comment, your the only one. Sad how people ignore the big giant comment which explains everything.
STICK THIS IN YOUR PIPES AND SMOKE IT FANBOYS! THIS IS LOGIC, NOT OPINION!
:P
Wow what a long comment… however I just proved a point, and it is something everyone can go home and accept. Just try and debate this, I dare you. You’re going to lose.
However for those who read it, I must say that boilmaker11, hyruken, and Squillium are the only other people in this thread who have really made a valid argument. Just want to say, good comments to all of you, especially boilmaker11, and hyruken.
Now I’m tired, I’ll respond Tuesday to all this, im a busy man and….I really shouldn’t make comments. They waste so much of my time. I know I’m right, I don’t need to prove it to the 40 people at best who read this.
