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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Dance Central, the game that will sell 5+ million Xbox 360s alone?

Seece on 19 June 2010
badgenome said:

Dance Central has no chance against Dance Masters. SO EXCITE CAN'T BREATH!


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MontanaHatchet on 19 June 2010
SecondWar said:
MontanaHatchet said:

I'm as excited about the possibilities of Kinect as the next guy, but you and a lot of other 360 fans are setting yourselves up for disappointment. Did Just Dance sell 5 million Wiis? It hasn't even sold 5 million copies. Kinect will be a great addition to the 360 platform, but don't hype it up too much.


Dance Central might do better as Harmonix is known to make good quality music games so the game is likely to be better than Just Dance. That said, Im not sure if any of the Kinect Launch titles will appeal to much of the 3X360 userbase or how well they will sell consoles.

Still think Dance Central looks like the most promising Kinect title so far

Harmonix makes great games, but if we're just going by developer status, none of their games have moved 5 million systems.



 

 

Stefan.De.Machtige on 19 June 2010

The  game looked great. Sure. But 5 million XBOX's? No.

If it's marketed really wel, then 3/4 million games and maybe a million kinect bundles.  



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Squilliam on 19 June 2010

Dance central might however sell 5M copies... thats the only 5M they will sell. However its the Kinect game I am personally most interested in, especially as Xbox Live can keep it fresh with new content/dance music.



Tease.

Pyro as Bill on 19 June 2010
Seece said:
De85 said:

Not a chance.  That demographic is already sold on the Wii, and while there may be some who crossover most aren't going to see any need for another console.


Yeah that's a possibility.

However if someone see's this dancing game, and it's their thing and they have a wii, hopefully the other wii like games on Kinect can push them to go down to their local game and trade the wii in, not having to spend more than $149 for a Kinect/slim bundle.

The ONLY problem I see with this is the intimidation, if Microsoft can reach out to the casuals, undo it's hardcore image to them, then it'll be a sale.


Do you think that could backfire on Microsoft?

If they undo the hardcore image too much, 360 owners might trade in their 360 for a PS3.

OT: I think Dance Central could be Kinect's biggest seller and help sell Kinect but I don't think it will sell 5M 360s



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c0rd on 19 June 2010
leo-j said:
De85 said:

Not a chance.  That demographic is already sold on the Wii, and while there may be some who crossover most aren't going to see any need for another console.

what if they think the 360 is a nexgen console? I mean if microsoft market it like a  more advanced experience..

It won't work, unless they can convince people actually playing it. People won't dump twice the amount of cash (360 Kinect) without knowing for sure what they're buying.


From what I've seen of Dance Central, I don't think it will be as well received as Just Dance. The style isn't as appealing, and in general it doesn't look like it offers anything new. In fact, it'll be a regression if it's any less than 4 players (which I suspect, but I'm unsure).

Although it may be more accurate (forcing you to actually copy the moves), I don't think this is an important point for most people. I don't see the people that are actually enjoying Just Dance complaining about accuracy. Keep in mind, the majority of people buying these dance games are not the type of people to be visiting gaming websites...

This is what Dance Central is up against - a far cheaper game in an established series for a system many already have:

As for Harmonix themselves being superior developers, that doesn't count for much. The top selling Guitar Hero is GH3, which they weren't involved in, and their Rock Band has never been able to take over GH. The situation here is much worse (Kinect's current userbase is 0).

With that said, I obviously think 5 million is way out of Dance Central's league. We still don't even know how much Kinect costs...



mike_intellivision on 19 June 2010

Out of a base of 61M units (Americas and EMEAA), Just Dance on Wii has sold 3.3M units.(There have been no sales in Japan according to VG Chartz). That means the game has been bought by roughly one out of every 20 Wii owners (5.4%).

Based on a similar attach rate, there would have to be approximately 92.5M Kinect-enabled Xbox 360s -- or essentially one for every mile that between the Sun and the Earth.

The Xbox 360 has been marketing primarily to male game players age 15-34. This game does not fit that demographic. So there would have to be new consoles (as well as Kinects) bought. It could drive sales. However, we have no idea if there will be an entry-level (Arcade equivalent) in place in November and if there is, what its cost will be or what it will feature. We do not even know the true price of Kinect (we only know the guesstimated price that everyone is advertising).

Legend11's estimate is off by at least a factor of 10.

 

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Metallicube on 19 June 2010

I don't think 5 million people are going to spend $300 on a new Xbox 360, PLUS another $200 on Kinect and a game.. Especially when that game is a dance game, that has already been done on Wii.

Why would anyone in the right mind do that when they can pick up a Wii and Just Dance for a little bit more than JUST the Kinect and the game? not to mention it also comes with 2 other games. So a Wii, Wii Motion Plus, Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort, and Just Dance for $230.. OR An Xbox 360, Kinect, and Dance Central for $500.. You gotta think about the economics of this here.. But hey at least the Xbox 360 has HD graphics! All casual gamers love that!

Like I've said before, I think Kinect will sell decently to families who ALREADY own a 360, but it's going to move very few NEW Xbox 360s.



De85 on 19 June 2010
Seece said:
De85 said:

Not a chance.  That demographic is already sold on the Wii, and while there may be some who crossover most aren't going to see any need for another console.


Yeah that's a possibility.

However if someone see's this dancing game, and it's their thing and they have a wii, hopefully the other wii like games on Kinect can push them to go down to their local game and trade the wii in, not having to spend more than $149 for a Kinect/slim bundle.

The ONLY problem I see with this is the intimidation, if Microsoft can reach out to the casuals, undo it's hardcore image to them, then it'll be a sale.

Oh I'm sure there will be few sales made this way, my point was just that it will not be anywhere near 5M...



ElGranCabeza on 19 June 2010

Possible IMO, was the best Kinect game demoed and Kinect will be sold with every 360 after it launches. So yea definitely doable.