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Forums - Sony Discussion - “There is absolutely a 10-year life cycle for PSP”, says Koller!

M.U.G.E.N said:

sigh

ps2 was intro'd in 2000 and ps3 in 2006...6-7 years into the ps2 life cycle which was aimed to be 10 years....this doesn't mean they will WAIT until the end of 10 years to release the next psp...it means the current psp has enough in it to sell for 10 years time in whole and frankly I can see that happening tbh...

So yeah, another thread filled with omgz it'z da doomzed sayers who doesn't even bother to try and understand a situation


You mean the PSP will keep selling for 3 years after a PSP2 and 3DS are launched?



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The PSP seems to taking up less and less space on store shelves from what I've seen in local stores. If the sections get any smaller, they won't even be noticed by consumers. Unless the PSP starts selling software again, they won't have any presence in retailers. I just don't see anything reinvigorating the software market outside of Japan however.



Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.

Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
mai said:

@M.U.G.E.N

Do I need to explain why your comparison of PSP with PS2 is faulty?


Do I need to explain why they 'might' follow the same route?


That would be nice, cos I don't see how ...

lol seriously?

Ok imagine this super awesome scenario aight?

they introduce a new psp for oh I don't know, let's guess here and say next year ok? and then they market and sell it yeah? and they drop the price of the psp by a big margin...the old psp won't have all the things that the current psp has and maybe the old psp won't even be able to play certain games made for the new psp as well...HOWEVER given the cheap price and game line up, even the old psp will sell, again not by a huge amount but it will sell cuz those who couldn't afford will buy them yeah? And I'm talking about the world now, not just usa or anything...they can introduce the old psp for a really low price in regions where it's not readily available and it will sell for certain....

So yes I can see the old one still selling into the future by whatever numbers it may be....however it doesn't say anywhere in their comments they will 'wait' till the end of the 10 year cycle to introduce the next psp, they just say they will support the 10 year life cycle, nothing more nothing less

Anyone with an open mind should be able to see this...



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"This world is Merciless, and it's also very beautiful"

For All News/Info related to the PlayStation Vita, Come and join us in the Official PSV Thread!

Farmageddon said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

sigh

ps2 was intro'd in 2000 and ps3 in 2006...6-7 years into the ps2 life cycle which was aimed to be 10 years....this doesn't mean they will WAIT until the end of 10 years to release the next psp...it means the current psp has enough in it to sell for 10 years time in whole and frankly I can see that happening tbh...

So yeah, another thread filled with omgz it'z da doomzed sayers who doesn't even bother to try and understand a situation


You mean the PSP will keep selling for 3 years after a PSP2 and 3DS are launched?


Yes I do think it's a possibility....if they keep up the support it definately can...so yea



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doesn't mean they won't release psp2



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M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
mai said:

@M.U.G.E.N

Do I need to explain why your comparison of PSP with PS2 is faulty?


Do I need to explain why they 'might' follow the same route?


That would be nice, cos I don't see how ...

lol seriously?

Ok imagine this super awesome scenario aight?

they introduce a new psp for oh I don't know, let's guess here and say next year ok? and then they market and sell it yeah? and they drop the price of the psp by a big margin...the old psp won't have all the things that the current psp has and maybe the old psp won't even be able to play certain games made for the new psp as well...HOWEVER given the cheap price and game line up, even the old psp will sell, again not by a huge amount but it will sell cuz those who couldn't afford will buy them yeah? And I'm talking about the world now, not just usa or anything...they can introduce the old psp for a really low price in regions where it's not readily available and it will sell for certain....

So yes I can see the old one still selling into the future by whatever numbers it may be....however it doesn't say anywhere in their comments they will 'wait' till the end of the 10 year cycle to introduce the next psp, they just say they will support the 10 year life cycle, nothing more nothing less

Anyone with an open mind should be able to see this...

Yeah.

FOR FOUR YEARS?



 

^Here's my prediction...

PS2 took 10 years before it fell bellow 5M sold on yearly basis. Let's take it as a standard of "10 year plan" console. PSP on it's 6 year (this holiday season) will make around 7.5M, with this kind of trend it will fall to irrelevancy next year, exactly the same year when 3DS will be released that will hasten it's death greatly.

So how long it will take before PSP will fall below 5M sold yearly? 6 years, 7 at max if it lucky.



M.U.G.E.N said:
scottie said:
Ajescent said:

So I'm the only one who concluded that the 10yr shtick applied to handhelds as well, before this article?


Yep, everyone else concluded that it didn't apply to either.

 

The 10 year plan is a joke.


yeah ps2 says hi btw

 

Yeah, cos that's totally a valid comparison

 

Lets look at the facts we know

 

1) There is only 1 significant factor in determining sales of a console - the availability of appealing games (I mean appealing to large amounts of people - I don't care if you personally prefer the PS3 games to the games competitor's have).

2) The length a console lasts can be shortened artificially by the developer, but it cannot be lengthened. In other words, a company can stop a willing market from being able to buy one console (in order to push them to buy the newer one) But it cannot force unwilling market to buy its console, and thus it can't extend the life of a console

3) Consoles with a higher userbase get more 3rd party support. (Well, actually, it's based on the company's predictions of future install base, hence why the PS3 initially got a ton of support)

4) Sony upgrades their consoles after 6 years, and keeps the old one out for as long as 3rd party suppor will keep it alive

5) The PS3 has a much lower userbase than the PS2, especially in terms of market share

6) The PS3 is losing the support of 3rd parties - GTA going to simulateous release from timed exclusive, main series FF going multiplat in 2 regions, DQ completely moving to DS/Wii. 

 

From these 6 points above, we can conclude

7) PS4 will release November 2012, and there will be no significant 1st party releases for the PS3 after this

8) The PS3 will then have to last 4 years, with 0 first party support and minimal 3rd party, which will be focussing on 3DS, PS4, 720, Wii2 as well as the Wii to the same degree that the PS2 got support after the release of this generation's consoles.

 

Finally we get,

9 The PS3 will not last 10 years. 



Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
mai said:

@M.U.G.E.N

Do I need to explain why your comparison of PSP with PS2 is faulty?


Do I need to explain why they 'might' follow the same route?


That would be nice, cos I don't see how ...

lol seriously?

Ok imagine this super awesome scenario aight?

they introduce a new psp for oh I don't know, let's guess here and say next year ok? and then they market and sell it yeah? and they drop the price of the psp by a big margin...the old psp won't have all the things that the current psp has and maybe the old psp won't even be able to play certain games made for the new psp as well...HOWEVER given the cheap price and game line up, even the old psp will sell, again not by a huge amount but it will sell cuz those who couldn't afford will buy them yeah? And I'm talking about the world now, not just usa or anything...they can introduce the old psp for a really low price in regions where it's not readily available and it will sell for certain....

So yes I can see the old one still selling into the future by whatever numbers it may be....however it doesn't say anywhere in their comments they will 'wait' till the end of the 10 year cycle to introduce the next psp, they just say they will support the 10 year life cycle, nothing more nothing less

Anyone with an open mind should be able to see this...

Yeah.

FOR FOUR YEARS?


With the right price, good game support and introduction to other countries and regions = absolutely yes it's a good possibility imo :)

Again none of these comments say they will wait till the end of the 10 year cycle....that's the main point here, whether the current psp has what it takes to complete 10 years is up to debate for sure BUT imho the psp2 will come within the next year or so

So let's hold off on the OMG r th3y da crazies comments for now :P



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"This world is Merciless, and it's also very beautiful"

For All News/Info related to the PlayStation Vita, Come and join us in the Official PSV Thread!

scottie said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
scottie said:
Ajescent said:

So I'm the only one who concluded that the 10yr shtick applied to handhelds as well, before this article?


Yep, everyone else concluded that it didn't apply to either.

 

The 10 year plan is a joke.


yeah ps2 says hi btw

 

Yeah, cos that's totally a valid comparison

 

Lets look at the facts we know

 

1) There is only 1 significant factor in determining sales of a console - the availability of appealing games (I mean appealing to large amounts of people - I don't care if you personally prefer the PS3 games to the games competitor's have).

2) The length a console lasts can be shortened artificially by the developer, but it cannot be lengthened. In other words, a company can stop a willing market from being able to buy one console (in order to push them to buy the newer one) But it cannot force unwilling market to buy its console, and thus it can't extend the life of a console

3) Consoles with a higher userbase get more 3rd party support. (Well, actually, it's based on the company's predictions of future install base, hence why the PS3 initially got a ton of support)

4) Sony upgrades their consoles after 6 years, and keeps the old one out for as long as 3rd party suppor will keep it alive

5) The PS3 has a much lower userbase than the PS2, especially in terms of market share

6) The PS3 is losing the support of 3rd parties - GTA going to simulateous release from timed exclusive, main series FF going multiplat in 2 regions, DQ completely moving to DS/Wii. 

 

From these 6 points above, we can conclude

7) PS4 will release November 2012, and there will be no significant 1st party releases for the PS3 after this

8) The PS3 will then have to last 4 years, with 0 first party support and minimal 3rd party, which will be focussing on 3DS, PS4, 720, Wii2 as well as the Wii to the same degree that the PS2 got support after the release of this generation's consoles.

 

Finally we get,

9 The PS3 will not last 10 years. 

wall of text :S not gonna even read all of that, too tired now

All i say is, wait till it does or does not happen first then we can see how long these handhelds and consoles can carry on, simple as that



In-Kat-We-Trust Brigade!

"This world is Merciless, and it's also very beautiful"

For All News/Info related to the PlayStation Vita, Come and join us in the Official PSV Thread!