i got nothing but "im picking cherries for sony" from that

By the numbers, PS3 was behind the 360 by 5 million units as of last week (using these numbers too becuase they are easier :P). Here is the break down of how many more they would have to sell a week to beat the 360.

As you can see, it would have to sell a lot more then it usually does to pull these. It's doable I guess, but the system are usually so close that it would take 3-5 years to do this not including if the 360 beats the PS3 on any week. This is all based on the assumption that PS3 outsells the 360 every week for x number of years.

Back then I cared.. Now I don't... I realized that PS3 is a safe bet for a console now than before. Frankly whether they gets outsold by any margin I wouldn't really care at all.

The new PS3 Slims will have a new processor that will put Sony in a position to make money on every console.  Given that this is only the 3rd year of a 10 year life cycle I would have to disagree with you on your point that Sony will not have made any money this Gen.  Secondly, developers are seeing these numbers too.  It's only a matter of time before they start catering more toward PS3.  Case and point, there was an article recently that spoke to comments made by Wii 3rd party publishers and their interest in jumping over to the PS3 because the Wii was a terrible platform for 3rd party developers.  If your a 360 owner trying to think of something logical to make you feel better about your console loosing marketshare at such a rapid pace in only the third year of a 10 year life cycle, well, good luck.  Not only do the numbers not lie but the future is much brighter for the PS3. 

1.  Bluray players are the new standard.  More and more people are moving to them. 

2.  3D is the standard of the future.  It took several years for HD TV's to become main stream.  Microsoft will loose it's short against 3D just like they did with bluray.

3.  PS3 has totally out gamed 360 since 2009.  Before you get your feathers all ruffled up think about it logically.  The past two years the Game of the year has been on PS3.  (Metal Gear Solid and Uncharted 2... Gamespots Demons Souls is worth mentioning too)  You might want to mention Batman Arkham... Note:  PS3 had the Joker exclusive content.  Aside from all the great multiplatform games in 2009 Sony also brought Infamous, Ratchet and Clank, and Killzone 2. 

Now that was an ok year compared to what Sony is doing in 2010.  (Twisted Metal, God of War 3, Heavy Rain, Grand Turismo 5, Mod Nation Kart racing King, Infamous 2, The Last Guardian, Agent, Resistance 3, Playstation Move, MLB the Show, Yakuza 3, Little Big Planet 2... The list goes on and on with very highly rated exclusives.)

In summary, the ONLY reason why 360 has any kind of lead at all is because they got such a head start on this generation.  A lot of gamers are very invested in their 360.  The last thing they want to do is have all that money go to waste.  At this point it's people are just as finatical as some religions.  If you factor in all of the PS3's functionality along with it's content offerings and games... let just say "Why many cant see it for what it really is, is truly baffling to say the least."

not counting the 1.3M ps3 outsold 360 last xmas.

were ps3 to do the same this year, which it is trending towards,

it would take

1 year : 66k per week

2 year : 33k per week

3 year : 22k per week

The most sony can ask for is a +2M gap close this christmas, taking the lead by xmas 2011, during which they will have both reached 60M or whatever.

Last year, the system has a good price drop and a new model. I doubt it will be the same as this year, esspecially as we are seeing decling sales. Where did you get those numbers though?

We are seeing a decline in both consoles sales, but 360 is dropping faster to the point where, despite the drop from last years xmas, it will still be that gap. Additionally, Sony increased its projections to 15M, whereas 360s was around 10M + extra three months IIRC.

I used the last ten weeks of sales to determine the gap.

did not kowenicki alread do his predictions for how long ps3 will take to overtake the x360, i think based on his calculations it fell in the 1-2yr timeline, but i think gt5 will surprise alot of people, natal will not do amazing sales and ps3 will overtake at christmas or sping 2011, if this happens expect the next xbox to come out asap

Ah i forgot about gt5. It will easily push 500k in console sales over a years time

Sega tapped out when they cut production of the Dreamcast well before the next gen started. It was directly because they could not compete with the initial success of the PS2. There's no arguing that.

It's always the commercially viable platforms that stay in production long after their successors have debuted. And if MS calls it quits early again (which I don't see happening), they will end the generation in last place, even if it's because they choose to launch an all new platform instead.

The more likely scenario is that they will end up in last place regardless as 360 production continues well after the PS3 passes it in sales.