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Forums - Sony Discussion - MGS4 Must Sell More Than One Million on the First Day

Smashchu said:
Gotta love Sessler. He said exactly what I said a long while back. I can see 1million in it's life time, but not on day one. If by some leap of faith the PS3 has 10million units sold (which seems doubtful) it would have to have a 10% install base on day one.

1 million lifetime? Sorry but the MGS franchise can sell a guaranteed 3 million. Add the fact that MGS4 is the most hyped game for the PS3 right now, it will do better than that.



Didja get that thing I sentcha?

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dabaus513 said:
I didnt even include what sony could do with white knight chronicles in japan assuming that game comes out before mgs 4.

Its a worldwide release correct?

So assuming that mgs 4 sells
200k in japan (conservative estimation)
450k in america (liberal estimation)
250 k in europe (no idea how software sells in eupope so i have no idea.)
So altogether i predict 1st day sales for mgs4 to around 900k



really conservative it is one of the most wanted games next year



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kirby007 said:
dabaus513 said:
I didnt even include what sony could do with white knight chronicles in japan assuming that game comes out before mgs 4.

Its a worldwide release correct?

So assuming that mgs 4 sells
200k in japan (conservative estimation)
450k in america (liberal estimation)
250 k in europe (no idea how software sells in eupope so i have no idea.)
So altogether i predict 1st day sales for mgs4 to around 900k



really conservative it is one of the most wanted games next year


Hahah i thought i was being to liberal with my sales estimation, but if you tink im being to conservative then maybe it is possible for it to reach 1 million sales day 1, tho i think 450k in america day 1 is a stretch, we'll see.



 

 

 

Quartz said:
That was quick, the link to the report is broken already...
1 million on first day...pfft. Maybe a week!. Unless it's given away in a PS3 bundle.

 LOL!!  That'll be even worst, putting it in a bundle.  Not only will they lose money doing that but I HIGHLY doubt that ONE MILLION people will buy the PS3 in day ONE for MGS4.  That means all the people that bought the PS3 solely for that game is gonna be screwed beyond belief IF that's the only way to get the game.  



Generation 8 Predictions so far.....(as of 9/2013)

Console that will sell most: Nintendo Wii U

Who will sell more consoles between Microsoft/SONY: SONY

 

I actually think this is possible. Maybe not likely, but possible.

The Playstation fanbase has quickly been boiled away: those who are Madden-heads, the GTA fans, the casual players.... a large portion of the people who buy stuff other than MGS/Final Fantasy have decided not to upgrade or have gone with the 360/Wii.

In much the same way that Halo represents the collective interests of 360 fans (with an attach rate of well over 40 percent), I believe Final Fantasy and especially Metal Gear Solid 4 will be to the Playstation 3: they are the central, core games for those players. If the PS3 were flying off the shelves and selling to a wide variety of people with different tastes, this may be different, but I suspect a healthy 30%+ of the people who have upgraded are MGS/FF fans. 

So yes, I think a 10% attach rate is possible.  



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kirby007 said:
PS-She said:
FishyJoe said:

Sony has compensated by ramping up its own game production and has 15 internal studios working on PlayStation titles, more than Microsoft and Nintendo combined, Dille said.

Great news!

where did he say that?


What do you mean?  It's in the article.

How about I help you find it...



'Metal Gear Solid 4' last of the great exclusives?
By Reuters
Published: November 29, 2007, 8:00 AM PST

Metal Gear Solid 4 is not only one of the most eagerly awaited games for Sony's PlayStation 3, it is also among the last of a dying breed--games designed exclusively for one gaming console.

Developed by Japan's Konami and due out next year, the game is the latest installment in the action series that produced smash hits for Sony's earlier PlayStation 2.

It's a prime example of a game known in the industry as a "third party exclusive," as opposed to "first party" ones made by game-console makers Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.

For years, the console makers have sought to secure such exclusives as a way to drive adoption of their machines.

"We're telling our fans that if you want to play Metal Gear Solid 4, you have to buy a PS3," said Ryan Payton, the assistant producer of the game.

"The PlayStation brand has always been good to us, and we're pretty bullish on the PS3."

But soaring production costs mean it's tougher for third-party games to turn a profit if they are limited to just one console. That's especially true for the PS3, sales of which have lagged those of the Xbox 360 and Wii.

Sony said it has been preparing for the demise of third-party exclusives for a long time.

"We understand publishers are needing to recoup their investment," said Peter Dille, senior vice president of marketing for Sony. "From our perspective, as long as the games aren't going exclusive to other platforms, PS3 gamers are not actually losing anything."

Sony has compensated by ramping up its own game production and has 15 internal studios working on PlayStation titles, more than Microsoft and Nintendo combined, Dille said.

He added that there will be 15 PS3 exclusives released between September 2007 and April 2008.

Payton said the new Metal Gear Solid needs to sell more than a million copies on the first day it goes on sale due to its costly production, but that may be a tough mark to hit given sluggish PS3 sales.

As of October, only 2 million PS3s had been sold in the United States, compared with 5.2 million Wii consoles from rival Nintendo and 7.2 million Xbox 360s from Microsoft, according to market research firm NPD.

A year after its release, only two PS3 games have sold more than 1 million copies, a benchmark of financial success for a big-budget game. The 7-year-old PlayStation 2 had nearly 100 games sell more than a million copies.

Top next-generation video games cost between $10 million and $50 million, according to IDC video game analyst Billy Pidgeon. That means publishers must hedge their bets by going onto as many platforms as possible.

"You might be able to weather one title coming in at 500,000 in sales," Pidgeon said. "But two or three failures like that and even big publishers are going to be hurting."

Several former PlayStation exclusives, including Grand Theft Auto, Virtua Fighter, and Devil May Cry, are now appearing on rival consoles, making the benefits of purchasing a PS3 questionable to some hard-core game buyers.

Some people think even MGS4 might not be compelling enough to turn the sales tide.

"No, Metal Gear Solid 4 isn't the killer app," said Adam Sessler, a video game critic on the G4 television network. "People who already own a PS3 will likely get it. But it doesn't have that kind of broad-based appeal."

Still, the iconic nature of the game combined with a cheap new PS3 model could boost sales when the game hits the market in the second quarter of 2008.

"There are definitely a lot of people still sitting on the fence about buying a PS3," Pidgeon said, "and this game could be the one that gets them to buy it."

It will.



Peter Potamus said: Your wrong, MGS3 has never hit the XBOX. MGS2 substance was on the XBOX, and without it MGS2 sold 5 million on the PS2. MGS3 sales struggled because it was never a sequel, but a prequel.

 

MGS3 didn't struggle because it was a prequel but because 2 had such a nonsensical story that it alienated a good chunk of their user base. Oh, and there were plenty of other good titles on the market at that point.



Leo-j said: If a dvd for a pc game holds what? Crysis at 3000p or something, why in the world cant a blu-ray disc do the same?

ssj12 said: Player specific decoders are nothing more than specialized GPUs. Gran Turismo is the trust driving simulator of them all. 

"Why do they call it the xbox 360? Because when you see it, you'll turn 360 degrees and walk away" 

Does he means worldwide or just the US .. if worldwide , and the PS3 reaches untill that point 11-12 million units , than it is possible . I do hope it will reach that number :)



Vote the Mayor for Mayor!

I see over 500,000 1st week sales in America.



currently playing: Desktop Tower Defense (PC), Puzzle Quest (DS), Trauma Center New Blood (Wii), Guitar Hero III (Wii), Ghost Squad (Wii), Actraiser (SNES), Donkey Kong County (SNES), The Legend of Zelda (NES), Kirby's Adventure (NES)

will play next: Paper Mario (N64), Golden Axe II (Sega), NiGHTS (Wii)

 

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