MGS4 Must Sell More Than One Million on the First Day

[Bodhesatva]

I actually think this is possible. Maybe not likely, but possible.

The Playstation fanbase has quickly been boiled away: those who are Madden-heads, the GTA fans, the casual players.... a large portion of the people who buy stuff other than MGS/Final Fantasy have decided not to upgrade or have gone with the 360/Wii.

In much the same way that Halo represents the collective interests of 360 fans (with an attach rate of well over 40 percent), I believe Final Fantasy and especially Metal Gear Solid 4 will be to the Playstation 3: they are the central, core games for those players. If the PS3 were flying off the shelves and selling to a wide variety of people with different tastes, this may be different, but I suspect a healthy 30%+ of the people who have upgraded are MGS/FF fans. 

So yes, I think a 10% attach rate is possible.