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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

why do you think people would want to buy a Wii in 2011 to 2015?
there will be no reason to buy one...



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___O_o______ said:
why do you think people would want to buy a Wii in 2011 to 2015?
there will be no reason to buy one...

Can you tell me other things from your travels to the future?



Stillwell said:
___O_o______ said:
why do you think people would want to buy a Wii in 2011 to 2015?
there will be no reason to buy one...

Can you tell me other things from your travels to the future?


yes! I want to know more too! and ___O_o______, can I borrow your time machine? Mine seems to be broke. ;-;

___O_o______ said:
why do you think people would want to buy a Wii in 2011 to 2015?
there will be no reason to buy one...

 For the games



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:
Danny355 said:
The 8 year figure im refering to for the PS2 relates entirely to Tyagis 2015 prediction. I dont expect the PS2 to be selling strongly in 2014-15 and never said as much either.

The PS2 sold 8 million units last year. Comparing this years sale to last its dropped by something like 12.5% so far. Even if it drops to 25% a year starting tommorow, it wont be far off 30 million by the end of 2015. If it has another year like 2007, it can drop a lot more than 25% each following year and STILL be in the region of 30 million in 2015.

Mr Tyagi, you seem reluctant but I would like to take up a "bet" with you...Can you put something along the lines of "the PS2 & 3 will not sell more than 40m combined between 1st Jan 2008- 31st december 2015" in your signature. Feel free to break that down into the 10m & 30m you stated for the respective consoles if you want!

 Don't need to, see its already a part of my Wii will surpass the entire family of Playstation consoles prediction, because my preidction takes into account potential PS2 and PS3 sales from this point.  Same reason I don't give a value for final Wii fit sales, because i'm going by an estimated attach rate (similar to the Wii sports/Wiiplay attach rates in japan) factoring in the range for Wii sales I have predicted

 

Also the idea that it will continue to sell well next year and the year after is your speculation you are assuing that sales trends will continue when in all likelyhood its drop off will be accelerated in the coming couple of years, as Wii eats more into its share

Yes but I think your Wii delusions and your "PS family" delusions are 2 very different and equally outlandish beasts. More to the point, a prediction 8 years in the future means nothing, because its highly unlikley you, me and this site will still be aquainted in 2015 for me to laugh at you, but your certain prediction that the PS2 wont sell another 10 million units could well happen in the next 18 months. The point of this thread for example is for John Lucas to make himself look ridiculous in 11 months time. A lot of your predictions are completely outlandish & also completely safe because they're dealing with stuff at least 3+ years into the future...

...And to be honest I dont really care to argue with you anymore because even if the PS2 sells say 7 million this year, even if the PS3 sells 12 million this year and even if the Wii only sells 25 million, im sure you will have an excuse or an answer as to why what is happening isnt a true reflection of reality and that it bears no meaning and that in the future when "this, that and this" happen, true reality will occur and Nintendo will buy their own continent and become a nuclear power.

 



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Stillwell said:
___O_o______ said:
why do you think people would want to buy a Wii in 2011 to 2015?
there will be no reason to buy one...

Can you tell me other things from your travels to the future?


 Why don't you say the same to Avinash and JL? Their beliefs seems founded on the same basis, only with a tad crazy in the mix. Typical Vgchartz right here.



I guess Danny355 is only comfortable answering the posts of people with predictions as crazy as his own.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Final-Fan said:
I think that the PS2 is benefiting greatly from the PS3's hardships. (And, recently, the PS3's gimped cheap version.) As the PS3 picks up steam the PS2 will die out.

Additionally, there is no way the PS2 will last 8 more years. 10 million more to end of lifetime is a more than reasonable estimate.

A_T's predictions may be (are) unrealistically rosy for the Wii (see my earlier posts), and I think the PS3 is going to make a big comeback against the 360, but your PS2 expectations are just as unrealistic as A_T's Wii expectations.

By the way, using software sales of a console near the end of its life to justify hardware expectations is delusional. 

I thought I replied to some of this already but anyway...

Yes I agree the PS2 will die out, its already dead compared to its glory years. But I really dont think the PS2 is a normal console with a normal lifespan or a normal death awaiting it. With the price difference to the PS3 and with the strength of its back catalogue I think it'll be around for a few more years. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree but I think to expect 10 million more sales for a console thats worst ever sales in a single year to date is 8 million is completely ridiculous.

And just to clarify, I dont think it'll clear 30 million any time soon, but I do think it will end somewhere in that region, could be 28 million, could be 25, but that sort of figure.

Everyone keeps saying "Its dead" or "It'll die soon" but, seriously, show me the figures. There is nothing to suggest this at all. For whatever reason all thats happened is that the PS2 has slyly slipped in the back door when no one was looking, right into the current generations battle. Even in its pension years its competing in hardware sales in Europe & the USA with the current generation consoles.

I am convinced the PS2 will do another 7 or 8 million this year.  



I'm not saying it'll DEFINITELY do only 10 million more till end of life, but I'm saying it's not that ridiculous. And it's certainly less ridiculous IMO than 30 million is. 15m is a good guess, I think.

And I think you missed the point of my statement, "As the PS3 picks up steam the PS2 will die out." I didn't mean that both of those things would happen to occur at the same time. I meant that one would contribute to causing the other. I firmly believe that the lackluster first year of the PS3 has abnormally extended PS2 sales. Given it a huge "Indian summer", as it were. Therefore, as the PS3 gains the momentum it should have had from the start, I expect PS2 sales to seriously fall off.

(I will note that the 40GB abomination is also helping the PS2 continue to sell. This effect will continue until/unless the 40GB is replaced/updated with BC.)

We'll see where the PS2 stabilizes after the holiday spike and, later on in the year, whether that plateau retreats further in the wake of PS3 advancements. 7 or 8 million? How many did it do in 2007?



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Read my posts on this page more closely!

PS2 did somewhere in the region of 8 million last year.

I get what you're saying but I dont think sales of PS2 & PS3 are that connected at all right now, because of their price. They're effectively completely seperate entities. The 2 systems are easily the cheapest and the most expensive consoles. Its like comparing a Neo Geo to a NES.

The current success of the PS2 is due to 2 things. #1: Price. People will happily pick up a PS2 for the office TV room...#2: Chances are everyone in the office has a shelf full of games already and waiting to bring in & play. Its become the ultimate casual video games tool. Much more so than a Wii, because the Wii is more expensive and currently has a tiny, tiny fraction of the catalogue and games in circulation and it will obviously lag in that department for years. You can pick up 100s of PS2 games for nothing. The system can be bought brand new for nothing.

All thats proving quite appealing and the PS2 is looking like becoming the first genuine generation hopping console ever made.