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Forums - Sales - My Prediction for how this generation will end up....

hsrob said:
Xmanny2009X said:
PS4 2018?! PS3 2020?! Wii2 2016?! You got 5 posts?! WTF?!

And you've got 117? What's your point?

I don't have time to comment on all aspects of the OP but Wii2 will certainly do more than 720p and COD4 level graphics.  I think people underestimate how much 3D hardware has moved on from what's in the PS3 and 360.  We just don't get to see the best of it because so few games these days are made exclusively for the PC or optimized to run on highest spec hardware. I'd imagine any sub $100 graphics card would run the game you mentioned very easily.

Also to suggest that PS3 is such a capable media centre that it will still be viable option until 2020 is just crazy talk.  There is time for a couple of generations of as yet unforeseen technology to rise and fall in that time.  It's just not happening, unless the PS3 is like the TARDIS, can travel in time and has much more on the inside than can be seen from the outside.

You wouldn't even need a $100 graphics card:

The $75 Radeon HD 4830 easily handles Call of Duty 4 at above 720p at higher than 60fps, and I suspect that the average GPU in an inexpensive ($500) laptop can run Call of Duty 4 at 720p at a playable frame rate.



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Xmanny2009X said:
hsrob said:
Xmanny2009X said:
PS4 2018?! PS3 2020?! Wii2 2016?! You got 5 posts?! WTF?!

And you've got 117? What's your point?

I don't have time to comment on all aspects of the OP but Wii2 will certainly do more than 720p and COD4 level graphics.  I think people underestimate how much 3D hardware has moved on from what's in the PS3 and 360.  We just don't get to see the best of it because so few games these days are made exclusively for the PC or optimized to run on highest spec hardware. I'd imagine any sub $100 graphics card would run the game you mentioned very easily.

Also to suggest that PS3 is such a capable media centre that it will still be viable option until 2020 is just crazy talk.  There is time for a couple of generations of as yet unforeseen technology to rise and fall in that time.  It's just not happening, unless the PS3 is like the TARDIS, can travel in time and has much more on the inside than can be seen from the outside.

I hate it when people do not notice the obvious.

Regardless, his post count has nothing to do with his point.



Those are pretty horrible predictions imo.



yo_john117 said:

Those are pretty horrible predictions imo.

Again please state WHY!!!!



I predict more people will try to do the Ms. Cleo route over the Internet and end up being embarrassingly wrong by what they wrote in the end.  Well, all except Pachter who seems to have no shame at being wrong, and keeps rolling with it, like an art form.  I will predict that as Pachter gets more influence, people on forums will get warnings that you can't question Pachter, because he got on a roll with his predicting and has been cloned and is now a set of tripplets who are essential to detecting murders before they happen.  Society will tolerating him continuing to be wrong about videogames predictions, so long as he saves lives.

No word about fanboys editing the feed directly from the mind of the Pachters because to let that be known would end up upsetting the balance in the fanboy force.



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Horrible predictions the average generation only lasts 5-6 years even with the bad economy that we are currently in you can only add 1-2 years to that. The 3DS will usher in the next gen this fall then sometime next year their should be a successor to the PSP and successors to all home consoles should start to appear sometime in 2012.



If you knock 1 or 2 years of all the predictons I think this may actually be really accurate. But I think the ps3 will stop being a media center at 2018-maximum



Captain_Tom said:

Fall 2010 will bring out Natal, Halo:Reach, and a $50 price cut/MS console revision:

-There will be one 360 model that is slimmer

Sure, why not?

-PS3 will drop the ps3's price to $250 in reaction and begin heavy Move support to counter Natal while using SOCOM4 and Resistance 3 to counter halo.  HEAVY MARKETING!

Nothing counters Halo except CoD. Too soon for a price cut, when they've just started profiting.

-The Wii will drop to $150 and continue to sell more than both consoles but steadily the software and outselling will diminish.

Too soon for a price cut. It'll still sell more than both combined over the holiday.

-Move will sell more if it comes out first

No, because NATAL will be much better marketed.

In 2011 Move will be used in practically every PS3 exclusive along with 3D and also in several 3rd party games.  360's will create several action games that sell ok with natal and a slew of kids/family games will sell.  Eventually both 360 and PS3 will include 250 gb HDD's standard. 

No. Move won't be nearly popular enough for that. NATAL won't do a whole lot better. Slightly more successful than the EyeToy.

In 2012 both 360 and PS3 will lower their prices to $199 and Wii will sell for $100.  Many exclusives will be seen on all consoles and talks of next gen will become prevalent.

The 360 is ALREADY $199. PS3, perhaps. Wii, I doubt it would go down that quickly. Took the PS2 9 years, and the Wii sells faster.

In 2013 Natal support will remain for only the casual crowd and 360 sales will see a very steady decrease little to no exclusives are released.  As 3D and blue-ray become mainstream PS3's will continue to sell as the main 3D blue-ray player/All-around great gaming device.  Wii will keep chugging on with great but not grand sales.

NATAL support will always have been mostly casual, like Move. By this point, next-gen consoles will be launching. The PS3 will be slowing down too.

In 2014 the next XBOX will be unveilled/released.  It will have no disc support and a 1TB HDD. The 360 will sell under 85 million.

Probably, yes. But it will support discs.

-The Wii will release its next console in 2014 but the wii will be produced until 2016 which will bring its total sales to 130 million.

Sounds reasonable.

-The PS4 will be released in 2018.  The PS3 will continue to receive great sales until 2020 as it will sell as the best multi-media device for a cheap price and the third party titles for the 3rd xbox will also be made for PS3 with slightly inferior graphics but much more support since it has a larger base.  The PS3 will sell a total of 125 million consoles.

STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP.

You were actually pretty good until here. NO. The PS3 is not going to last for 12 years, it's not going to sell 125 million copies. This stopped back in 2007, and it's not starting again. It may be the best multimedia device now, but the technology will become obsolete, outdated and overpriced. Like all products, it will slowly fade away as other devices improve upon it. The 3rd Xbox will be significantly more powerful than the PS3, so no multiplats there. And very few people will be buying PS3 games by then because the PS4 will have released around 2013.

Possible changes:

-A new generation of XBOX is not released and MS focuses on cheap and easy gaming PC's since it receives 3rd place twice in a row. MS decides to cut their losses.

No. The 360 will most likely finish second this gen, and if not, it will be a very close third. Its consoles have been far too successful for it to leave the market.

-Natal sells big and 360 and PS3 come to a very close final of arround 100 million each (Or slightly more for 360).  The wii will sells less because of the support for natal as it is even easier to use and basically all 3 consoles sell the same amount.

Not happening. NATAL is an optional add-on with a hefty price tag, instantly alienating many casual gamers. It will do well, but it's not a Wii killer.

-Nintendo introduces an HD version of the Wii in 2013.  It will cost $200 while the wii sells for $100.  The wii HD and normal wii will still use the same games but the wii HD will have optional install on its 250 HDD and in 720p with graphics tuned higher (Like graphics are tuned differently based on a PC).  Games on the HD will look like COD4 quality but no better.  The wii will then sell 150 million+ units as the greatest selling console of all time.

Firstly, the DS will sell far more than 150 million. Secondly, this is highly unlikely. The audience whom the Wii appeals to is very unlikely to pay double the price for the same thing with slightly better graphics and installation. The Wii could sell 150 million regardless, but I think it'll slow down before then.

 

P.S. That was long but that's what I predict.  Please respond with detail in how you disagree and in what part of my prediction you disagree.

It starts well, but don't let your apparent love of Sony (no bad thing) create ridiculous predictions, or you'll look back on this and think "Wow, I was an idiot". I know this from personal experience.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Reality itself will distort in order to make Sony the winner.



Consoles won't release that far into the next decade. 2011-2013 is much more likely. I found your 2010 predictions alright.