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Forums - Sales - My Prediction for how this generation will end up....

Fall 2010 will bring out Natal, Halo:Reach, and a $50 price cut/MS console revision:

-There will be one 360 model that is slimmer

-PS3 will drop the ps3's price to $250 in reaction and begin heavy Move support to counter Natal while using SOCOM4 and Resistance 3 to counter halo.  HEAVY MARKETING!

-The Wii will drop to $150 and continue to sell more than both consoles but steadily the software and outselling will diminish.

-Move will sell more if it comes out first

In 2011 Move will be used in practically every PS3 exclusive along with 3D and also in several 3rd party games.  360's will create several action games that sell ok with natal and a slew of kids/family games will sell.  Eventually both 360 and PS3 will include 250 gb HDD's standard. 

 

In 2012 both 360 and PS3 will lower their prices to $199 and Wii will sell for $100.  Many exclusives will be seen on all consoles and talks of next gen will become prevalent.

 

In 2013 Natal support will remain for only the casual crowd and 360 sales will see a very steady decrease little to no exclusives are released.  As 3D and blue-ray become mainstream PS3's will continue to sell as the main 3D blue-ray player/All-around great gaming device.  Wii will keep chugging on with great but not grand sales.

In 2014 the next XBOX will be unveilled/released.  It will have no disc support and a 1TB HDD. The 360 will sell under 85 million.

-The Wii will release its next console in 2014 but the wii will be produced until 2016 which will bring its total sales to 130 million.

-The PS4 will be released in 2018.  The PS3 will continue to receive great sales until 2020 as it will sell as the best multi-media device for a cheap price and the third party titles for the 3rd xbox will also be made for PS3 with slightly inferior graphics but much more support since it has a larger base.  The PS3 will sell a total of 125 million consoles.

 

Possible changes:

-A new generation of XBOX is not released and MS focuses on cheap and easy gaming PC's since it receives 3rd place twice in a row. MS decides to cut their losses.

 

-Natal sells big and 360 and PS3 come to a very close final of arround 100 million each (Or slightly more for 360).  The wii will sells less because of the support for natal as it is even easier to use and basically all 3 consoles sell the same amount.

 

-Nintendo introduces an HD version of the Wii in 2013.  It will cost $200 while the wii sells for $100.  The wii HD and normal wii will still use the same games but the wii HD will have optional install on its 250 HDD and in 720p with graphics tuned higher (Like graphics are tuned differently based on a PC).  Games on the HD will look like COD4 quality but no better.  The wii will then sell 150 million+ units as the greatest selling console of all time.

 

P.S. That was long but that's what I predict.  Please respond with detail in how you disagree and in what part of my prediction you disagree.



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PS4 2018?! PS3 2020?! Wii2 2016?! You got 5 posts?! WTF?!



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Captain_Tom said:

Fall 2010 will bring out Natal, Halo:Reach, and a $50 price cut/MS console revision:

-There will be one 360 model that is slimmer

-PS3 will drop the ps3's price to $250 in reaction and begin heavy Move support to counter Natal while using SOCOM4 and Resistance 3 to counter halo.  HEAVY MARKETING!
Not this year

-The Wii will drop to $150 and continue to sell more than both consoles but steadily the software and outselling will diminish.
You wish

-Move will sell more if it comes out first
?????

In 2011 Move will be used in practically every PS3 exclusive along with 3D and also in several 3rd party games.  360's will create several action games that sell ok with natal and a slew of kids/family games will sell.  Eventually both 360 and PS3 will include 250 gb HDD's standard. 

In just one year!?!?

In 2012 both 360 and PS3 will lower their prices to $199 and Wii will sell for $100.  Many exclusives will be seen on all consoles and talks of next gen will become prevalent.

That's crazy......

In 2013 Natal support will remain for only the casual crowd and 360 sales will see a very steady decrease little to no exclusives are released.  As 3D and blue-ray become mainstream PS3's will continue to sell as the main 3D blue-ray player/All-around great gaming device.  Wii will keep chugging on with great but not grand sales.

That will never happen, That's way too far

In 2014 the next XBOX will be unveilled/released.  It will have no disc support and a 1TB HDD. The 360 will sell under 85 million.
*wonders what your baseing this on*

-The Wii will release its next console in 2014 but the wii will be produced until 2016 which will bring its total sales to 130 million.
Are you expecting a huge slowdown? Also 2014? That's 8 years after wii 1

-The PS4 will be released in 2018.  The PS3 will continue to receive great sales until 2020 as it will sell as the best multi-media device for a cheap price and the third party titles for the 3rd xbox will also be made for PS3 with slightly inferior graphics but much more support since it has a larger base.  The PS3 will sell a total of 125 million consoles.

I want what your smoking

Possible changes:

-A new generation of XBOX is not released and MS focuses on cheap and easy gaming PC's since it receives 3rd place twice in a row. MS decides to cut their losses.

?????

-Natal sells big and 360 and PS3 come to a very close final of arround 100 million each (Or slightly more for 360).  The will sells less because of the support for natal as it is even easier to use and basically all 3 consoles sell the same amount.

You expect them to sell 10+ million for the next 5 years or somthing?

-Nintendo introduces an HD version of the Wii in 2013.  It will cost $200 while the wii sells for $100.  The wii HD and normal wii will still use the same games but the wii HD will have optional install on its 250 HDD and in 720p with graphics tuned higher (Like graphics are tuned differently based on a PC).  Games on the HD will look like COD4 quality but no better.  The wii will then sell 150 million+ units as the greatest selling console of all time.

Patcher why are you here?

P.S. That was long but that's what I predict.  Please respond with detail in how you disagree and in what part of my prediction you disagree.

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Xmanny2009X said:
PS4 2018?! PS3 2020?! Wii2 2016?! You got 5 posts?! WTF?!

And you've got 117? What's your point?

I don't have time to comment on all aspects of the OP but Wii2 will certainly do more than 720p and COD4 level graphics.  I think people underestimate how much 3D hardware has moved on from what's in the PS3 and 360.  We just don't get to see the best of it because so few games these days are made exclusively for the PC or optimized to run on highest spec hardware. I'd imagine any sub $100 graphics card would run the game you mentioned very easily.

Also to suggest that PS3 is such a capable media centre that it will still be viable option until 2020 is just crazy talk.  There is time for a couple of generations of as yet unforeseen technology to rise and fall in that time.  It's just not happening, unless the PS3 is like the TARDIS, can travel in time and has much more on the inside than can be seen from the outside.



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LOL I expect a PS4 in 2014 (sadly..)



 

mM
hsrob said:
Xmanny2009X said:
PS4 2018?! PS3 2020?! Wii2 2016?! You got 5 posts?! WTF?!

And you've got 117? What's your point?

I don't have time to comment on all aspects of the OP but Wii2 will certainly do more than 720p and COD4 level graphics.  I think people underestimate how much 3D hardware has moved on from what's in the PS3 and 360.  We just don't get to see the best of it because so few games these days are made exclusively for the PC or optimized to run on highest spec hardware. I'd imagine any sub $100 graphics card would run the game you mentioned very easily.

Also to suggest that PS3 is such a capable media centre that it will still be viable option until 2020 is just crazy talk.  There is time for a couple of generations of as yet unforeseen technology to rise and fall in that time.  It's just not happening, unless the PS3 is like the TARDIS, can travel in time and has much more on the inside than can be seen from the outside.

I hate it when people do not notice the obvious.



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I hope OP is not serious. Is this some kind of attempt at a Rol thread or something?



I somewhat agree with it. I think the next gen consoles will be out sooner than you predicted though. I'm thinking like 2013 for all of them. 2014 at the very very latest. I'm betting all 3 companies will release their console the same time.



It's impossible to tell what will happen and I mean IMPOSSIBLE because so much can change in a very short time. Having said that.. I think this generation will come to an end in 2012 with at least two home consoles launching before the end of 2012. The reason I say this is pretty simple;

- Microsoft seem to be launching Natal as a mini console, with a console-like launch to sell the XBOX 360 to a more casual audience. I'm assuming they expect this run to last no more than 3 years. This is similar to what Sony did with the PS1 and PS2, their basic strategy was to sell to core gamers first, then to the casual consumer. You'll notice the software they release now on PS2 is essentially Buzz and Singstar.

- I don't see a whole lot on the horizon for Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo after 2011 in terms of software. They'll all be wanting to get to their next consoles to begin a new software generation. Gears 3, Halo: Reach, Fable 3 are all most likely the last of their respective franchises that will make an appearance on the XBOX 360. Zelda Wii, Mario Kart Wii, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Super Mario Galaxy 2, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Metroid: Other M will be/are the last of their respective franchises on the Wii console. I'm unsure about Sony on this front.. They have quite a few unknowns still to come like Agent for example. I can see GT6 appearing on the PS3, Uncharted 3, and they have a few FF titles to come.