Nintendo won't be first. 3DS alone probably ensures that, it's going to be their focus the next two or so years (likely to Wii's detriment somewhat imo).

I tend to think MS might be first, but it really depends on how Natal goes for them. Realistically, I see everyone launching by the end of 2012 though.

Everybody that's just saying, "lolz, y wuld da 3DS b releesd wen da DS iz stil duin gud?" has a terrible argument.

It's called keeping up your brand name and staying ahead of the competition. The DS will ALWAYS sell best so long as the same four other gaming machines are out there. THIS WON'T CHANGE. But the times comes when your tech is too old to do what you want with it. Miyamoto himself said that a big part of when new consoles are created and released is because he has new ideas that can't be done on the current hardware. And Nintendo is first and foremost a gaming company, so they have to ALWAYS stay on top of the game. Now that they're kings of the world again, they have to try - HARD - to keep it that way. They need to keep their stock prices up, they need to keep their brand name's reputation up, and they need to make sure the competition doesn't release and get a foothold on the next generation before they do. Since Sony and Apple are fighting fiercely for the handheld gaming market, Nintendo has to make sure that people know their product is best for the job, and they have to ensure people choose them first and foremost.

With all of that said, "selling well" is not and cannot be a good argument. It makes obvious sense that they'd release when they are. You don't always want to wait until someone else has made the jump before you. Nintendo learned this two generations in a row.

"so they have to ALWAYS stay on top of the game. Now that they're kings of the world again, they have to try - HARD - to keep it that way. They need to keep their stock prices up, they need to keep their brand name's reputation up, and they need to make sure the competition doesn't release and get a foothold on the next generation before they do"

It must be quite stressing for the execs...huge weight on Iwata´s shoulders...the transition period is probably the time people in charge of Nintendo, Sony and MS come really close to shitting in their pants and keep fingers crossed.

I think the only reason they'd want to come out with a new console before Microsoft and Sony would be to get some of the hardcore market. Right now they own the casual market but they don't even have there toe in the pool of hardcore gaming yet. So they may come out with a Wii HD and keep the original Wii at the same time to attempt to capture both Hardcore and Casual market, if there greedy enough.

That or maybe sales may start dropping like a rock within the next couple years. Anything could happen.

*Most* people are stupid in this lovely world.

Nintendo's only reason to abandon Wii early would be if their internal devs felt they hit a wall in developing for it and they thought a new console could best continue their market momentum.

Logically it makes no sense right now to release before the others as Wii is #1 in sales consistently which proves it has the most consumer demand, regardless of perceived hardware limitations by fanboys.

I firmly think the next gen will launch in 2012. These may be initially presented as early as E3 2011.

Its really up to the company.  The ps1 was more successful than the n64 but sony released the ps2 before the gamecube.  The ds is a lot more successful than the psp but nintendo it looks like the ds sucessor is launching before the psp successor. 

I guess nintendo just wants to keep up the excitement and momentum going.  The winner of one console generation usually wins the next one nes and super nes, ps1 and ps2 etc.