Sorry... wrong MH3 thread. 

I have the feeling in Europe it'll do better than we expect.

Doing very well on Amazon Germany and France ( I know I know, keep your baby seals to yourselves )

France

1. Le classement s'est amélioré au cours des 24 dernières heures 71 jours dans le top 100		Pokémon version Argent SoulSilver de Nintendo Plate-forme:   Nintendo DS  (6 commentaires client) En stock Prix : EUR 35,00 3 neufs à partir de EUR 35,00
2. Le classement a chuté au cours des 24 dernières heures 174 jours dans le top 100		Lapins crétins - La grosse aventure de Ubisoft Plate-forme:   Nintendo Wii  (32 commentaires client) En stock Prix : EUR 17,99 21 neuf & d'occasion à partir de EUR 17,40
3. Le classement a chuté au cours des 24 dernières heures 10 jours dans le top 100		GTA IV : Episodes from Liberty City de Rockstar Plate-forme:   PLAYSTATION 3  (3 commentaires client) En stock Prix : EUR 31,29 3 neufs à partir de EUR 31,29
4. Le classement s'est amélioré au cours des 24 dernières heures 50 jours dans le top 100		Red dead redemption de Rockstar Plate-forme:   PLAYSTATION 3 Date de sortie: 21 mai 2010 À paraître - Commandez-le dès aujourd'hui! Prix : EUR 53,00 4 neufs à partir de EUR 48,00
5. Le classement a chuté au cours des 24 dernières heures 50 jours dans le top 100		God Of War collection (God of war 1 + God of war 2 haute définition) de Sony Computer Plate-forme:   PLAYSTATION 3 1 discussion de clients Date de sortie: 28 avril 2010 À paraître - Commandez-le dès aujourd'hui! Prix : EUR 37,00 3 neufs à partir de EUR 37,00
6. Le classement a chuté au cours des 24 dernières heures 86 jours dans le top 100		God of War III de Sony Plate-forme:   PLAYSTATION 3  (14 commentaires client) | 1 discussion de clients En stock Prix : EUR 49,00 26 neuf & d'occasion à partir de EUR 47,80
7. Le classement s'est amélioré au cours des 24 dernières heures 37 jours dans le top 100		Monster Hunter 3 + manette classique pro Wii noire + Wii Speak + figurine Lagiacrus de Capcom Plate-forme:   Nintendo Wii En stock Prix : EUR 64,91 3 neufs à partir de EUR 64,91
8. Le classement s'est amélioré au cours des 24 dernières heures 13 jours dans le top 100		Monster hunter 3 + manette classique pro noire de Capcom Plate-forme:   Nintendo Wii En stock Prix : EUR 49,00 6 neufs à partir de EUR 48,00

Germany

1. In den letzten 24 Stunden in der Rangliste aufgestiegen 249 Tage in den Top 100		Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Deutsch) von Activision Plattform:   Windows Vista / XP  (765 Kundenrezensionen) | 93 Kundendiskussionen Auf Lager. Preis: EUR 19,99 46 Angebote ab EUR 19,99
2. In den letzten 24 Stunden in der Rangliste abgestiegen 4 Tage in den Top 100		Super Mario Galaxy 2 von Nintendo Plattform:   Nintendo Wii  (4 Kundenrezensionen) | 3 Kundendiskussionen Erscheinungstermin: 11. Juni 2010 Vorbestellbar Preis: EUR 44,99 3 neu ab EUR 40,49
3. In den letzten 24 Stunden in der Rangliste aufgestiegen 1165 Tage in den Top 100		World of WarCraft - GameCard (60 Tage Pre-Paid) von Blizzard Entertainment Plattform: Plattformunabhängig  (61 Kundenrezensionen) | 3 Kundendiskussionen Auf Lager. Preis: EUR 20,90 47 neu ab EUR 18,99
4. 96 Tage in den Top 100		Pokémon Silberne Edition - SoulSilver inkl. Pokéwalker von Nintendo Plattform:   Nintendo DS  (15 Kundenrezensionen) | 28 Kundendiskussionen Auf Lager. Preis: EUR 35,89 54 Angebote ab EUR 34,00
5. In den letzten 24 Stunden in der Rangliste aufgestiegen 15 Tage in den Top 100		Monster Hunter Tri von Nintendo Plattform:   Nintendo Wii  (4 Kundenrezensionen) | 5 Kundendiskussionen Auf Lager. Preis: EUR 39,50 32 Angebote ab EUR 39,00

B_E_L_I_E_V_E

You Also have to take into account that in Europe there is 3 versions of the game which are ALL in the top 20 of best sellers. If you combine all 3 versions sales it looks like this game will be a very big seller and might be #1 in all of Europe when combined.

New Wii Gamers may not find it their style. Even if the pick it up they basic skill you need to play it. May turn them off from it. I'm a experince gamer, but new to the series. So getting started is hard at first.

It has a chance to do above average if these things happen.
Wii Pirates go out and buy it. I doubt that with the game being linked days before. They were already on it.
Wii60/PSWii owners need to buy the game also. This is the first time that a good 3rd Party game has been released With out a HD game to out shine it on it's launched day.
No More Heroes 2 and Tatsunoko VS Capcom had to deal with Mass Effect 2 and MAG.
Red Steel had to deal with God of War 3.
Monster Hunter 3 just has to deal with a dam Street Fighter they already bought. Oh and Splinter Cell just for the 360.
He the choice not to buy it then that's part of your problem.
Finally the Nintendo only Wii owners need to buy it.

As you can see that's alot of things that need to happen. Odds of these things happening! Next to none. In the end this game may bomb too. Not because it's Monster Hunter, but because we didn't support it.

Oh ya I did by it by the way!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLW3m-78qqk

How will it sell 30,000 - 40,000 if pre-orders are over 70,000?

Care to make a bet?

Have you already purchased the game Khuutra? It seems you like amazing games, so maybe MH3 would be something for you.

Amazon seems to be VERY biased to certain kinds of games and gamers.  Usually it's the "hardcore" stuff honestly.

I have not, alas. Funds are tight. I'm subsisting primarily on my VC backlog at the moment....

Whilst I believe it'll pass 100k in American week one with relative ease, the pre orders are never set in stone.