New Wii Gamers may not find it their style. Even if the pick it up they basic skill you need to play it. May turn them off from it. I'm a experince gamer, but new to the series. So getting started is hard at first.
It has a chance to do above average if these things happen.
Wii Pirates go out and buy it. I doubt that with the game being linked days before. They were already on it.
Wii60/PSWii owners need to buy the game also. This is the first time that a good 3rd Party game has been released With out a HD game to out shine it on it's launched day.
No More Heroes 2 and Tatsunoko VS Capcom had to deal with Mass Effect 2 and MAG.
Red Steel had to deal with God of War 3.
Monster Hunter 3 just has to deal with a dam Street Fighter they already bought. Oh and Splinter Cell just for the 360.
He the choice not to buy it then that's part of your problem.
Finally the Nintendo only Wii owners need to buy it.
As you can see that's alot of things that need to happen. Odds of these things happening! Next to none. In the end this game may bomb too. Not because it's Monster Hunter, but because we didn't support it.
Oh ya I did by it by the way!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLW3m-78qqk
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