By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - When will Wii outsell PS2?

 

When will Wii outsell PS2?

2010 1 0.26%
 
2011 8 2.08%
 
2012 37 9.61%
 
2013 57 14.81%
 
2014 55 14.29%
 
Never 227 58.96%
 
Total:385
jarrod on 06 April 2010
Metallicube said:
Only reason it won't happen, and I mean the ONLY reason, is if Nintendo purposely cuts the Wii's lifespan short by releasing its next console soon. Otherwise there is no reason to believe it won't eventually outsell PS2.

I don't get why Wii seems to be the one console where everyone just assumes its sales are going to drop like a rock. It's tracking AHEAD of the PS2, so where do you get the logic that it will sell LESS?

From what I gather, people predisposed to thinking it won't pass PS2 are basing that chiefly Nintendo handling Wii's wind down like N64 or GC, despite the platform's marketplace appreciably outperforming PS2 (and even DS actually).  There's a logical disconnect there, and one that's not really even supported by the historical precedents of previously successful Nintendo platforms in their twilight years (NES, SNES, GBA).

There's also the notion that Nintendo will jumpstart the next cycle first, despite them being competitively and historically the least inclined to actually do so.



Around the Network
The Ghost of RubangB on 06 April 2010

Mummelmann, you are a gentleman and a scholar. Sorry for being a jerk.



twitter.com/evaneldeneller

Sunday Fundays

Mummelmann on 06 April 2010
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Mummelmann, you are a gentleman and a scholar. Sorry for being a jerk.

Sorry for being so ill tempered. If we can't keep or wits about us we might as well become game journalists!



jarrod on 06 April 2010

Fuck, now I want to apologize.  Everyone, I'm sorry.  Especially to u Mumm.

Hugz?



Mummelmann on 06 April 2010

Hugz you old pig!



Around the Network
Ail on 06 April 2010
jarrod said:
rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.

wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013.

No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years.  If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.

I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for.  Truthfully, it's a crapshoot.  Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know.  What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...

 

One of the reason the PS2 kept doing so well after the PS3 release was two folds :

- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2

- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...

 

Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.

Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)

 

Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?

3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Ail on 06 April 2010
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Mummelmann said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Wii has outsold the PS2 every year with aligned launches. To not outsell the PS2 it not only has to slow down really fast, it has to slow down much much faster than the PS2 did, but it just has too much momentum to do that. If GTA4, Halo 3, God of War 3, Metal Gear Solid 4, Modern Warfare 2, Final Fantasy 13, and everything else couldn't slow it down, what will? Sports Champions, Move Party, Brunswick Bowling, Ricochet, and Milo? I am suddenly rolling on the floor laughing.

Have you read any of the posts or are you trying to make yourself look stupid on purpose? No one here is claiming that HD software will "stop the Wii" so get a hold of yourself and stop being so childish. The next generation starting will lead to a decline in sales of all platforms and a halt eventually, the only dispute lies in when this generation starts and how much momentum is lost until then. Or are you one of those who believe that the next Wii won't be out until 2020 because it will never stop selling?

Save for Scottie, who is actually behaving like an adult, all I see in this thread are people pointing and saying "lol, you're stupid", solid arguments indeed. I somehow expected more from the senior members, guess I was wrong to do so.

Well I don't bump into you in too many threads these days, so I can understand how I came off like an idiot.  I skimmed through most of the thread.  I am a firm believer that software sells systems.  It will take software to slow the Wii down.  In my opinion all the biggest games for 360 and PS3 have already come out and not even dented the Wii's sales.  So you and many others have the opinion that what will slow the Wii down will be the software from the Wii 2 and other systems of the next generation.  Sure, it's a possibility.  But the DS/PSP didn't slow the GBA down, the Wii/PS3/360 didn't slow the PS2 down, the PS2/XBox/GC didn't slow the PS1 down.  The market leader always lasts between 3 and 13 extra years, where it just keeps dominating and very slowly declines.

DS came out in 2004.  360 came out in 2005.  Wii and PS3 came out in 2006.  GBA was still outselling the PS3 in 2007.  That's how powerful market leaders are.  The Wii should last longer than the GBA, since the GBA didn't exactly have a huge game-changing market-expander like Wii Sports or Wii Fit.

The majority of consoles are sold at $200 or less.  The Wii sold more units at its original price than any other console.  Now it's at $200 or less.  It should at least double its sales.

 

The one small argument I would have to refute this is that the Wii price cut seems to be loosing steam and not have as big an effect as price cut usually have.

Q1 2010 sales are the same as Q1 2009 at a 50$ lower price point..

Some will argue sales would have been higher were it not for stock issues. But don't forget that in January 2009 Wii had stock issues in the US too....( and please don't bring up the software line up, we're talking Animal Crossing and Wii Music vs NSMBWii, so 2010 obviously has the better software..)



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

jarrod on 06 April 2010
Ail said:
jarrod said:
rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.

wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013.

No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years.  If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.

I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for.  Truthfully, it's a crapshoot.  Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know.  What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...

 

One of the reason the PS2 kept doing to well after the PS3 release was two folds :

- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2

- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...

 

Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.

Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)

 

Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?

3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...

PS1 sold 30% of it's total after PS2 launch, GBA sold 25% of it's total after DS launch, and neither of those platforms enjoyed the benefits you're talking about with PS2 vs PS3 really either.  Of course, I've also always maintained that Wii's wind down would be more comparable to GBA or even PS1 than to PS2.

Also, I've already shown Nintendo dropping support for their widely successful platforms post-successor launch isn't really historically supported or accurate, with GBA being the most recent, and arguably most relevant example.  I sort doubt Wii will be the first here.   And what PS2 games were still selling huge in November 2009 (ie: 3 years after PS3 launch) and later?  The notion of strong 3rd party support for PS2 years after PS3 launch is itself a bit of a misinterpretation... I mean we got some niche JRPGs from Atlus and NIS, and GOW2 pretty quick, but not really all that much else notable?  3rd party support for PS2 from Nov 2006 on looks worse than 3rd party Wii support from Nov 2006 on to be frank...



jarrod on 06 April 2010
Ail said:

The one small argument I would have to refute this is that the Wii price cut seems to be loosing steam and not have as big an effect as price cut usually have.

Q1 2010 sales are the same as Q1 2009 at a 50$ lower price point..

Some will argue sales would have been higher were it not for stock issues. But don't forget that in January 2009 Wii had stock issues in the US too....( and please don't bring up the software line up, we're talking Animal Crossing and Wii Music vs NSMBWii, so 2010 obviously has the better software..)

Wii's out of stock perpetually in the west.  And production is confirmed lower than where we were a year ago... frankly I'm at a bit of loss as to what you're trying to get at exactly?

The one region with no supply constraints (Japan) has Wii selling 50% more this Q1, almost doubling the current weekly baseline with an arguably worse new release schedule.  This is "loosing steam"?



Ail on 06 April 2010
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.

wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013.

No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years.  If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.

I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for.  Truthfully, it's a crapshoot.  Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know.  What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...

 

One of the reason the PS2 kept doing to well after the PS3 release was two folds :

- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2

- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...

 

Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.

Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)

 

Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?

3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...

PS1 sold 30% of it's total after PS2 launch, GBA sold 25% of it's total after DS launch, and neither of those platforms enjoyed the benefits you're talking about with PS2 vs PS3 really either.  Of course, I've also always maintained that Wii's wind down would be more comparable to GBA or even PS1 than to PS2.

Also, I've already shown Nintendo dropping support for their widely successful platforms post-successor launch isn't really historically supported or accurate, with GBA being the most recent, and arguably most relevant example.  I sort doubt Wii will be the first here.   And what PS2 games were still selling huge in November 2009 (ie: 3 years after PS3 launch) and later?  The notion of strong 3rd party support for PS2 years after PS3 launch is itself a bit of a misinterpretation... I mean we got some niche JRPGs from Atlus and NIS, and GOW2 pretty quick, but not really all that much else notable?  3rd party support for PS2 from Nov 2006 on looks worse than 3rd party Wii support from Nov 2006 on to be frank...

 

Actually when the PS2 released Sony was selling PS2 at a loss, PS1 at a profit, so they had every interest in keeping the PS1 alive as long as possible...

The situation is different too in the fact that as the PS1 and PS2 gen got older those machines kept increasing their marketshare so those machines became the defacto machines to purchase if you wanted a cheap old gen console as the next generation started.( heck Microsoft totally stopped the Xbox support when this gen started).

 

The Wii has however stopped gaining marketshare for now over 1 year and nothing tells us that Sony or Microsoft will drop the ball on this gen when the next gen starts...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !