When will Wii outsell PS2?

[Ail]

jarrod said:

rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.

wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013.

No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years.  If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.

I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for.  Truthfully, it's a crapshoot.  Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know.  What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...

 

One of the reason the PS2 kept doing so well after the PS3 release was two folds :

- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2

- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...

 

Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.

Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)

 

Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?

3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...