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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Should Nintendo launch in 2011-12 starting the next gen with monster power?

 

Should Nintendo launch in 2011-12 starting the next gen with monster power?

Launch in 2011- early 12 ... 115 63.89%
 
Launch in 2011, just larg... 42 23.33%
 
Re-release current Wii in 2011, just with HD 23 12.78%
 
Total:180
zarx on 30 March 2010

man archbrix I bet you love rolling in your new bed of VG$ this thread has brought into your coffers



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O-D-C on 30 March 2010

no, Nintendo will be supporting the Wii, WW, DS, DSIW and 3DS they won't have the ressources to develop, launch and market a new full console in 2012, 2013-2014 maybe



hsrob on 30 March 2010
Mazty said:
hsrob said:
Mazty said:

Well you could make the argument against the PS3, apart from the fact the term shovelware came from the junk games produced on mass for the wii...
Yes it is a hypothetical argument, but one rooted in, as i said, surveys which suggest many wii owners do not tend to play on their consoles for an amount of time that a serious gamer would.
Problem is the install base, as I've been saying, may not be interested in another console, because they are content with what the wii offers. Clearly they did not want good graphics (360 and PS3 provide better) or media playback, or even a remote that worked 'well' (180ms lag), so why would they buy a better console if they are happy with dated graphics and a laggy pad?

Yes again this is hypothetical, but not something that should just be dismissed as the above point shows that wii owners have not got a want for high quality, therefore why buy a better Wii?

You are making judgements about the quality of Wii games and assumptions about Wii owners which you can't back up and which I would argue don't even matter.  You may not appreciate many of Wii's offerings and you are entitled to your opinion but this 'quality' doesn't speak to the buying habits of the people who play Wii games or their likelihood of supporting Nintendo's new console.  You are using soft data (surveys?) which suggest that these people don't play their games much but in the end it doesn't matter one bit as long as they buy games, and by extension, hardware.

The only hard data we have is attach rate. You are right that the attach rate doesn't mean much when you take a snapshot but (and you'll have to take my word for this if you are new to the site) the Wii's attach rate has been rising for over 3.5 years which tells us that it's established users and new users are continuing to buy games in significant numbers.  Once again it doesn't matter if they only play each game for 5 minutes, the point is they are willing to hand their hard earned over to Nintendo /andor it's third parties.  So what about the behaviour of these people makes you so sure they won't continue to spend their money on Nintendo in the next generation? 

The only data we have says they have been willing to buy games and continue to buy games, which strongly suggest thats they have so far been happy with the products they have purchased and are willing to spend money.  I'm not saying this guarantees their future loyalty to Nintendo or their gaming habit, but why are you so sure that it doesn't.

 

Well let's look at thte facts of the wii and what a new one could offer:
The wii is technically very dated. The games are graphically dated and AI is not going to be impressive compared to the rest of the market.
The pad response time is about 180ms meaning the owners are not concerned about a responsive pad, nor is it 1:1 without motion +.

What could a new console offer that could entice people who clearly are not bothered about graphics or tech as they have the wii to begin with?

If they wanted cheap gaming they'd have chosen the xbox. If they wanted hardcore games, xbox or PS3. If they wanted state of the art graphics/bluray they'd have gone for the PS3.

So again, what could a new console possibly offer to these people who dont care about graphics, tech or media?

You brought up this figure so many times in this thread I thought I'd look it up.  I have no idea where you came across this figure but I did come across this article which addresses the general topic of controller lag and lag in console games.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-vs-console-lag-round-two-article?page=3

In case you don't feel like reading it, lag of 100ms-150ms is not unusual even in the biggest and best FPS shooters available for the HD consoles.



vaio on 30 March 2010
hsrob said:
Mazty said:
hsrob said:
Mazty said:

Well you could make the argument against the PS3, apart from the fact the term shovelware came from the junk games produced on mass for the wii...
Yes it is a hypothetical argument, but one rooted in, as i said, surveys which suggest many wii owners do not tend to play on their consoles for an amount of time that a serious gamer would.
Problem is the install base, as I've been saying, may not be interested in another console, because they are content with what the wii offers. Clearly they did not want good graphics (360 and PS3 provide better) or media playback, or even a remote that worked 'well' (180ms lag), so why would they buy a better console if they are happy with dated graphics and a laggy pad?

Yes again this is hypothetical, but not something that should just be dismissed as the above point shows that wii owners have not got a want for high quality, therefore why buy a better Wii?

You are making judgements about the quality of Wii games and assumptions about Wii owners which you can't back up and which I would argue don't even matter.  You may not appreciate many of Wii's offerings and you are entitled to your opinion but this 'quality' doesn't speak to the buying habits of the people who play Wii games or their likelihood of supporting Nintendo's new console.  You are using soft data (surveys?) which suggest that these people don't play their games much but in the end it doesn't matter one bit as long as they buy games, and by extension, hardware.

The only hard data we have is attach rate. You are right that the attach rate doesn't mean much when you take a snapshot but (and you'll have to take my word for this if you are new to the site) the Wii's attach rate has been rising for over 3.5 years which tells us that it's established users and new users are continuing to buy games in significant numbers.  Once again it doesn't matter if they only play each game for 5 minutes, the point is they are willing to hand their hard earned over to Nintendo /andor it's third parties.  So what about the behaviour of these people makes you so sure they won't continue to spend their money on Nintendo in the next generation? 

The only data we have says they have been willing to buy games and continue to buy games, which strongly suggest thats they have so far been happy with the products they have purchased and are willing to spend money.  I'm not saying this guarantees their future loyalty to Nintendo or their gaming habit, but why are you so sure that it doesn't.

 

Well let's look at thte facts of the wii and what a new one could offer:
The wii is technically very dated. The games are graphically dated and AI is not going to be impressive compared to the rest of the market.
The pad response time is about 180ms meaning the owners are not concerned about a responsive pad, nor is it 1:1 without motion +.

What could a new console offer that could entice people who clearly are not bothered about graphics or tech as they have the wii to begin with?

If they wanted cheap gaming they'd have chosen the xbox. If they wanted hardcore games, xbox or PS3. If they wanted state of the art graphics/bluray they'd have gone for the PS3.

So again, what could a new console possibly offer to these people who dont care about graphics, tech or media?

You brought up this figure so many times in this thread I thought I'd look it up.  I have no idea where you came across this figure but I did come across this article which addresses the general topic of controller lag and lag in console games.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-vs-console-lag-round-two-article?page=3

In case you don't feel like reading it, lag of 100ms-150ms is not unusual even in the biggest and best FPS shooters available for the HD consoles.

Nice find :)

Then accordding to him Killzone 2 150-183ms is unplayable.



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axt113 on 30 March 2010
Khuutra said:
axt113 said:
Khuutra said:

We have reached an agreement concerning the fact that there are other value metrics, and we reached it respectfully; that's all I wanted.

As to what else matters? Why, how fun I think it is, of course.

Ah, but even on fun, Super Mario wins over 3D, since more people find it fun, hence its long term appeal and sales.

 

What we have come to agreement, and as your comment proved, is that all relevant value metrics can be determined by numbers, often majorities

....I was being facetious for the sake of proving the point that umbers cannot be indicative of how one is going to enjoy a game, which is all that matters in the first place as someonee who consumes video games.

More people finding something fun does not make it more fun, it just means that more people find it fun.

There are value metrics that can be determined by numbers, but if you thinkn you can take my attempt to gracefully leave this conversation and turn it into acquiescence to a point which I have contested since the beginning then you are more sorely mistaken in this than you are on the aforementioned contested point.

But as I pointed out, we measure based on numbers, think about it, companies want the most people to have fun, because that leads to greatest sales, and long term sales, success is measured by numbers.

 



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea

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Khuutra on 30 March 2010
axt113 said:
Khuutra said:

....I was being facetious for the sake of proving the point that umbers cannot be indicative of how one is going to enjoy a game, which is all that matters in the first place as someonee who consumes video games.

More people finding something fun does not make it more fun, it just means that more people find it fun.

There are value metrics that can be determined by numbers, but if you thinkn you can take my attempt to gracefully leave this conversation and turn it into acquiescence to a point which I have contested since the beginning then you are more sorely mistaken in this than you are on the aforementioned contested point.

But as I pointed out, we measure based on numbers, think about it, companies want the most people to have fun, because that leads to greatest sales, and long term sales, success is measured by numbers.

Success is measured by numbers, but success cannot be absolutely equated to quality either.

You're going to have to come up with much strong reasoning to convince me of your position here.

Actually, I take that back. Convincing me of your position in this case is not possible. It implies that every Final Fantasy is better than every Mother, or every Fire Emblem, or every Ogre Battle. It doesn't fly. There's nothing more to be said on that subject.



axt113 on 30 March 2010
archbrix said:
axt113 said:

History proves you wrong, you keep saying that 2D Mario wouldn't sell as much, sorry, but if that were true, then you wouldn't have seen NSMB Wii blow by every 3D Mario in a matter of weeks.  Also trying to point to SMW 2, which wasn't a Super Mario game just proves the weakness of your argument.

No a good game is a good game, is a good game, and a 2D Super Mario game is better than a 3D Mario, and that's been proven over and over, Mario 64 was a flop when compared to Super Mario games, and it has nothing to do with the times, if it did, NSMB Wii wouldn't have sold as much, but it sold far more, because its a better game, not because of the times.  But obviously you just don't have a clue of how the market works.

 

Again, NSMB Wii was released last year, not in '96.  The market is already past the inception of 3D; of course a fun game is going to sell.  The "15+ year" argument that Khuutra made is not garbage, it's just not what you want to hear.  If you knew anything about the market (clearly you don't) you'd know that something that works at one moment may not be as popular the next.

Super Mario 2, a 2D game, sold 10 million+ copies on a system that sold over 61 million consoles.

Super Mario 64, a 3D game, sold over 11 million copies on a system that only sold 32+ million consoles.

Not only did Mario 64 sell more copies total, it did so with a much lower install base.

Your "no exceptions" argument fails.

And you lose... again.

 

 

 

 

Wow, your arguments continue to become more and more wrong.

Sorry, but no, the whole idea that the inception of 3D would knock off Super Mario is disproved by your own comments, if 3D was able to do so, then Mario 64 would have sold as well as a super mario, it did not, so your argument fails and the 15+ years argument is garbage.

Super Mario 2 was not released both in Japan and US, if you recall, the version in the US was a skin of a different game, so you are trying to compare apples and oranges here, SMB 3 on the other hand sold far better than Mario 64.  Also why do you think N64 sold so poorly, because Mario 64 wasn't able to push hardware like Super Mario

I'm afraid your arguments are once again extremely weak and easily shown to be wrong, I suggest you learn more about the market before replying again



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea

Khuutra on 30 March 2010
axt113 said:

Wow, your arguments continue to become more and more wrong.

Sorry, but no, the whole idea that the inception of 3D would knock off Super Mario is disproved by your own comments, if 3D was able to do so, then Mario 64 would have sold as well as a super mario, it did not, so your argument fails and the 15+ years argument is garbage.

Super Mario 2 was not released both in Japan and US, if you recall, the version in the US was a skin of a different game, so you are trying to compare apples and oranges here, SMB 3 on the other hand sold far better than Mario 64.  Also why do you think N64 sold so poorly, because Mario 64 wasn't able to push hardware like Super Mario

I'm afraid your arguments are once again extremely weak and easily shown to be wrong, I suggest you learn more about the market before replying again

What are you talking about? Doki Doki Panic was released in all territories.

The actually Super Mario 2: The Lost Levels didn't sell as well at all in Japan, unless I am mistaken.



axt113 on 30 March 2010
Khuutra said:
axt113 said:
Khuutra said:

....I was being facetious for the sake of proving the point that umbers cannot be indicative of how one is going to enjoy a game, which is all that matters in the first place as someonee who consumes video games.

More people finding something fun does not make it more fun, it just means that more people find it fun.

There are value metrics that can be determined by numbers, but if you thinkn you can take my attempt to gracefully leave this conversation and turn it into acquiescence to a point which I have contested since the beginning then you are more sorely mistaken in this than you are on the aforementioned contested point.

But as I pointed out, we measure based on numbers, think about it, companies want the most people to have fun, because that leads to greatest sales, and long term sales, success is measured by numbers.

Success is measured by numbers, but success cannot be absolutely equated to quality either.

You're going to have to come up with much strong reasoning to convince me of your position here.

Actually, I take that back. Convincing me of your position in this case is not possible. It implies that every Final Fantasy is better than every Mother, or every Fire Emblem, or every Ogre Battle. It doesn't fly. There's nothing more to be said on that subject.

I disagree, when something is successful, it becomes the benchmark of quality, because others attempt to emulate, you can see it in the gaming industry right now in fact, with motion controls.



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea

axt113 on 30 March 2010
Khuutra said:
axt113 said:

Wow, your arguments continue to become more and more wrong.

Sorry, but no, the whole idea that the inception of 3D would knock off Super Mario is disproved by your own comments, if 3D was able to do so, then Mario 64 would have sold as well as a super mario, it did not, so your argument fails and the 15+ years argument is garbage.

Super Mario 2 was not released both in Japan and US, if you recall, the version in the US was a skin of a different game, so you are trying to compare apples and oranges here, SMB 3 on the other hand sold far better than Mario 64.  Also why do you think N64 sold so poorly, because Mario 64 wasn't able to push hardware like Super Mario

I'm afraid your arguments are once again extremely weak and easily shown to be wrong, I suggest you learn more about the market before replying again

What are you talking about? Doki Doki Panic was released in all territories.

The actually Super Mario 2: The Lost Levels didn't sell as well at all in Japan, unless I am mistaken.

But it wasn't called Mario 2 in all territories

 

As I recall it didn't go to Japan as a Mario game until 4 years later

 



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea