I think the question to ask is why SciFiBoy died. Yesterday, he lead the questioning of ArkZero. ArkZero ended up looking guilty enough to end up second on most people's suspect list. SciFiBoy then ends up dead. I see three possibilities:

A. ArkZero is mafia. SciFiBoy was killed to relieve the pressure that was on him.

B. Arkzero is innocent. The mafia killed SciFiBoy to make ArkZero look even more guilty.

C. It has nothing to do with ArkZero. The mafia had some other motive for killing SciFiBoy.

I think C is pretty unlikely. That leaves A or B. Possibility A has a chance to backfire, bringing more attention to ArkZero. Maybe the mafia felt they couldn't risk the continued pressure from SciFiBoy. Possibility B puts us in a bad position. All it takes is one mis-lynch for us to lose.

So how good do we think SciFiBoy is at the game? Possibility A requires that he picked out scum. Possibility B requires that he was wrong and picked out an innocent player. Which of those is more likely?

Still, ArkZero remains one of my better suspects from yesterday.

That would be absolutely brilliant.

They kill someone else and Arkzero still dies.

*sigh*

Is a lynch worth it today? Or should the cop investigate arkzero and hopefully stay alive and give us good news?

TheRepublic, I'm counting on you to figure out the probablities since you're so good at that stuff.

Ok, but I have some other stuff to do.  I will try and do it within the next two hours.

Ugh. This is tough without knowing if the cop's investigations are still alive.

(Note: This is NOT a request for the cop to roleclaim!)

Lynch today with cop role claim

40% chance we lynch scum if 0 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 25% chance we lynch mafia - 10% chance town wins

50% chance we lynch scum if 1 investigation is alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 33% chance we lynch mafia - 17% chance town wins

67% chance we lynch scum if 2 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 50% chance we lynch mafia - 33% chance town wins

(These were the easiest scenarios to figure out, I'm still working on the others.)

Well the one thing those odds dont figure in are patterns of what people said and how it correlates to others.  Meaning if a mafia buddied up on a lynch or backed what he said, type thing.   But of couse we have to find that first mafia person so we could look for those patterns, obviously 

ON another note I think that the cop should only come out if both of the people they investigated are still alive.

@dtewi

I would be all for a no lynch, especially since it lengthens the game and gives us a better chance

Lynch Today without cop role claim

The cop will die 25% of the time.

Note: Cop would role claim if we were about to lynch an known innocent.  This would potentially move us to the below scenarios.  The probability of that is shown.

0 investigations alive right now - 33% chance we lynch scum (17% chance A is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 0 investigations alive) - 33% chance we lynch scum - 11% chance town wins (Cop dies - 8% chance town wins)

0 investigations alive right now - 33% chance we lynch scum (17% chance A is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 1 investigation alive) - 50% chance we lynch scum - 17% chance town wins (Cop dies - 8% chance town wins)

1 investigation alive right now - 50% chance we lynch scum (33% chance B is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 1 investigation alive) - 50% chance we lynch scum - 25% chance town wins (Cop dies - 13% chance town wins)

1 investigation alive right now - 50% chance we lynch scum (33% chance B is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 2 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 50% chance town wins (Cop dies - 13% chance town wins)

2 investigations alive right now - 67% chance we lynch scum (50% chance C is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 2 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 67% chance town wins (Cop dies - 17% chance town wins)

2 investigations alive right now - 67% chance we lynch scum (50% chance C is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 3 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 67% chance town wins (Cop dies - 17% chance town wins)

Lynch today with cop role claim

A. 40% chance we lynch scum if 0 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 25% chance we lynch mafia - 10% chance town wins

B. 50% chance we lynch scum if 1 investigation is alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 33% chance we lynch mafia - 17% chance town wins

C. 67% chance we lynch scum if 2 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 50% chance we lynch mafia - 33% chance town wins

I dont know why you figured in "if the cop lives part" once he roleclaims he is dead, there is no one to protect him anymore. But its nice to see a good spread of numbers at least.

Like I said before though, I only want him to roleclaim if both people he investigated are alive. Dont care other than that

Made a few quick additions in color.

@Vetteman, did you not read the underlined part where it says if we lynch today without a cop role claim?  As to your other point, yes these are the numbers if our choices are random.  Good play will raise our chances, while bad play will lower them.

Judging from the work I have already done, the cop should not role claim at all today.  We have a better chance at winning if we try to lynch without the cop role claiming.  This is true even if both investigations are alive.  The cop should only role claim if we are moving toward a lynch of the cop, or one of his innocent investigations.

I still need to figure the numbers for a no lynch scenario.  That could be even better.  Maybe I'll have time tomorrow.