Mafia Round 15A - Game Thread - Vanilla Round

[theRepublic]

theRepublic said:

Lynch Today without cop role claim

The cop will die 25% of the time.

Note: Cop would role claim if we were about to lynch an known innocent.  This would potentially move us to the below scenarios.  The probability of that is shown.

0 investigations alive right now - 33% chance we lynch scum (17% chance A is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 0 investigations alive) - 33% chance we lynch scum - 11% chance town wins (Cop dies - 8% chance town wins) - Combined 10% - Including chance of scenario A 10%

0 investigations alive right now - 33% chance we lynch scum (17% chance A is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 1 investigation alive) - 50% chance we lynch scum - 17% chance town wins (Cop dies - 8% chance town wins) - Combined 15% - Including chance of scenario A 14%

1 investigation alive right now - 50% chance we lynch scum (33% chance B is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 1 investigation alive) - 50% chance we lynch scum - 25% chance town wins (Cop dies - 13% chance town wins) - Combined 22% - Including chance of scenario B 20%

1 investigation alive right now - 50% chance we lynch scum (33% chance B is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 2 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 50% chance town wins (Cop dies - 13% chance town wins) - Combined 41% - Including chance of scenario B 33%

2 investigations alive right now - 67% chance we lynch scum (50% chance C is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 2 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 67% chance town wins (Cop dies - 17% chance town wins) - Combined 55% - Including chance of scenario C 44%

2 investigations alive right now - 67% chance we lynch scum (50% chance C is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 3 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 67% chance town wins (Cop dies - 17% chance town wins) - Combined 55% - Including chance of scenario C 44%

 

Lynch today with cop role claim

A. 40% chance we lynch scum if 0 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 25% chance we lynch mafia - 10% chance town wins

B. 50% chance we lynch scum if 1 investigation is alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 33% chance we lynch mafia - 17% chance town wins

C. 67% chance we lynch scum if 2 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 50% chance we lynch mafia - 33% chance town wins

Made a few quick additions in color.

@Vetteman, did you not read the underlined part where it says if we lynch today without a cop role claim?  As to your other point, yes these are the numbers if our choices are random.  Good play will raise our chances, while bad play will lower them.

Judging from the work I have already done, the cop should not role claim at all today.  We have a better chance at winning if we try to lynch without the cop role claiming.  This is true even if both investigations are alive.  The cop should only role claim if we are moving toward a lynch of the cop, or one of his innocent investigations.

I still need to figure the numbers for a no lynch scenario.  That could be even better.  Maybe I'll have time tomorrow.