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theRepublic said:

Lynch today with cop role claim

40% chance we lynch scum if 0 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 25% chance we lynch mafia - 10% chance town wins

50% chance we lynch scum if 1 investigation is alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 33% chance we lynch mafia - 17% chance town wins

67% chance we lynch scum if 2 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 50% chance we lynch mafia - 33% chance town wins

(These were the easiest scenarios to figure out, I'm still working on the others.)

Well the one thing those odds dont figure in are patterns of what people said and how it correlates to others.  Meaning if a mafia buddied up on a lynch or backed what he said, type thing.   But of couse we have to find that first mafia person so we could look for those patterns, obviously