Mafia Round 15A - Game Thread - Vanilla Round

[theRepublic]

Lynch Today without cop role claim

 

 

The cop will die 25% of the time.

Note: Cop would role claim if we were about to lynch an known innocent.  This would potentially move us to the below scenarios.  The probability of that is shown.

0 investigations alive right now - 33% chance we lynch scum (17% chance A is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 0 investigations alive) - 33% chance we lynch scum - 11% chance town wins (Cop dies - 8% chance town wins)

0 investigations alive right now - 33% chance we lynch scum (17% chance A is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 1 investigation alive) - 50% chance we lynch scum - 17% chance town wins (Cop dies - 8% chance town wins)

1 investigation alive right now - 50% chance we lynch scum (33% chance B is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 1 investigation alive) - 50% chance we lynch scum - 25% chance town wins (Cop dies - 13% chance town wins)

1 investigation alive right now - 50% chance we lynch scum (33% chance B is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 2 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 50% chance town wins (Cop dies - 13% chance town wins)

2 investigations alive right now - 67% chance we lynch scum (50% chance C is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 2 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 67% chance town wins (Cop dies - 17% chance town wins)

2 investigations alive right now - 67% chance we lynch scum (50% chance C is forced) - Next Day (cop alive + 3 investigations alive) - 100% chance we lynch scum - 67% chance town wins (Cop dies - 17% chance town wins)

Lynch today with cop role claim

A. 40% chance we lynch scum if 0 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 25% chance we lynch mafia - 10% chance town wins

B. 50% chance we lynch scum if 1 investigation is alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 33% chance we lynch mafia - 17% chance town wins

C. 67% chance we lynch scum if 2 investigations are alive - Next Day (Cop dead) - 50% chance we lynch mafia - 33% chance town wins