Sony has thrown everything they possibly can at their competitors - endless PS3 bundles and models, 50% price reduction in 3 years, PS3 slim, motion controller announcement, GTA4, MW2, Uncharted, MAG, etc. - yet still is in 3rd. I don't really see what else Sony has left. GT5 like you said, but what else? Could they really afford yet another price drop already? What happens when the PS3 is $100 and still gets outsold? Where do they go from there? Though you have to give Sony credit for all the effort they are putting into their console to try and push it towards success. They've definitely improved matters but at the end of the day they are still in 3rd.
You could argue that this is largely due to MS releasing the console a year earlier but that Sony's fault for not releasing the PS3 earlier. Halo Reach will do some damage but beyond that MS doesn't seem to have much up its sleeve either. I can't really see Natal taking off, but it certainly has a better chance of being a hit than the Move. A 6 million gap is not an easy one to make up. In the end, I think these two consoles will be virtually tied, with 360 maybe having a slight edge, from the strength of having a cheaper price, strong library, year head start, and perhaps some boost from Natal.
Nintendo, well what is there to say, they have had only one price drop in 34 months and only one model, with a sorry excuse for 3rd party support, and they continue to dominate. NSMB Wii will sell on forever and provide the console a lift for at least another year. The Wii is simply the king of the evergreen titles while most HD hits sell a ton the first week then drop like a rock, never to be seen again. Then there is the big wild card, the Vitality Sensor, which could be another major hit, or do nothing. And they have yet to really use the motion plus to their advantage.
