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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst predicts 127m PS3 sales

thetonestarr on 19 April 2010

Given that the Ps3's sales have repeatedly faced slowdown, there's absolutely no way this will happen.

But provided it can at least keep momentum, after ten years, it will sell - at the VERY BEST - just shy of 100m.

I took the average number of PS3's sold daily to date (~27,000) and figured out how many days there are left in a ten-year cycle. Multiplying that number by the ~27,000 number I'd calculated, then adding 34m (the PS3's current sell-through), I get 99,357,621.

Given that I didn't account for leap years, we can be generous and give that an extra two days sell-through, so you can tack on another generous amount of 56,000 to that. Still leaves it 597,000 units shy of 100m.

And this is assuming the next generation doesn't steal the attention, but instead people by the droves suddenly start thinking the PS3 is amazing and start buying like hotcakes.

Which is incredibly unlikely.



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cdude1034 on 19 April 2010
Viper1 said:
cdude1034 said:

I didn't feel like reading the entire 80 billion page thread, but let me just say that I've never before seen this kind of disconnect between industry analysts and reality.

Let me introduce you to the following list.

 

Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008) Didn't even list Wii
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million

Thanks for the assist!

Can anyone remember anytime in any industry where so many predictions were so very, very wrong? I certainly can't. Then again, most of these people are the same people who helped create and burst the economic bubble, so it's not too surprising that they couldn't predict the video game market.



 

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Uberkiffer on 19 April 2010

None of this matters. The world ends on Dec. 21, 2012 - google confirms such. PS3 only has 2 more years left to sell consoles.. it will never hit 127m.



MARCUSDJACKSON on 19 April 2010
Tecmo said:
wow that's a bold prediction....even at my most liberal prediction I have the ps3 lifetime sales at no more than 75 mil (and I thought that was stretching it)


i see 75m in 3yr's



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Metallicube on 19 April 2010

If PS3 is going to reach 127 million, how the hell much do people think Wii is going to reach then, 250 million?



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 19 April 2010
cdude1034 said:

I didn't feel like reading the entire 80 billion page thread, but let me just say that I've never before seen this kind of disconnect between industry analysts and reality.

This generation ends the moment a new console is released, and by the looks of it, it's gonna be within the next couple of years.

Edit: And that will herald the end of any shot PS3 has at reaching 127 million.


no it ends when a consoles life cycle ends. i think we should have new consoles in 2020



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 19 April 2010

well you never truly know what will happen so lest hope they all sale over 100m. one things for sure. these consoles may never make it to ps2 sales world wide but this console gen is whale on its way to being the won that all cosole combind will out sales the other gens.



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Mr Puggsly on 19 April 2010

It can happen. Assuming the Wii and 360 disappear tomorrow and the PS3 drops to $99.



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Mummelmann on 19 April 2010

That analyst must have Downs Syndrome and be on acid for sure.



cdude1034 on 19 April 2010
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
cdude1034 said:

I didn't feel like reading the entire 80 billion page thread, but let me just say that I've never before seen this kind of disconnect between industry analysts and reality.

This generation ends the moment a new console is released, and by the looks of it, it's gonna be within the next couple of years.

Edit: And that will herald the end of any shot PS3 has at reaching 127 million.


no it ends when a consoles life cycle ends. i think we should have new consoles in 2020

And that's based on what fact? Here, lemme help you with some of my own:

Sony:

PS1: 1994
PS2: 2000
PS3: 2006

Nintendo:

SNES: 1991
N64: 1996
Gamecube: 2001
Wii: 2006

Microsoft:

Xbox: 2001
XB360: 2005

(All years are for the American launch)

We may well have new consoles in 2020, but they'll most likely be the generation after the next one. Now, let's make no mistake. The end of a generation doesn't necesarrily mean the end of a life for a console, but let's face it, support drops dramatically about a year or two after the next generation comes out. All previous history points to a new launch anywhere from 2011-2013.

Now you can say that the analysts are doing the same thing, looking at past data and assuming the trends will remain the same. Their folly is that they don't truly understand the gaming market, because they base their predictions simply off of the last generation's trends, instead of the entire ~20 year history that modern videogames have.



 

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