Analyst predicts 127m PS3 sales

[cdude1034]

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

cdude1034 said:

I didn't feel like reading the entire 80 billion page thread, but let me just say that I've never before seen this kind of disconnect between industry analysts and reality.

This generation ends the moment a new console is released, and by the looks of it, it's gonna be within the next couple of years.

Edit: And that will herald the end of any shot PS3 has at reaching 127 million.

no it ends when a consoles life cycle ends. i think we should have new consoles in 2020

And that's based on what fact? Here, lemme help you with some of my own:

Sony:

PS1: 1994
PS2: 2000
PS3: 2006

Nintendo:

SNES: 1991
N64: 1996
Gamecube: 2001
Wii: 2006

Microsoft:

Xbox: 2001
XB360: 2005

(All years are for the American launch)

We may well have new consoles in 2020, but they'll most likely be the generation after the next one. Now, let's make no mistake. The end of a generation doesn't necesarrily mean the end of a life for a console, but let's face it, support drops dramatically about a year or two after the next generation comes out. All previous history points to a new launch anywhere from 2011-2013.

Now you can say that the analysts are doing the same thing, looking at past data and assuming the trends will remain the same. Their folly is that they don't truly understand the gaming market, because they base their predictions simply off of the last generation's trends, instead of the entire ~20 year history that modern videogames have.