Poor soul, he's alone in his crusade:
Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities today released an updated video game forecast for the U.S. and European markets through 2013. Other than a so called "Wii HD," Pachter does not think that any new consoles will hit the market for the next four years, and his forecasts are based on this assumption. A number of executives have commented that this generation of consoles would have a much longer than traditional cycle, and the impending launches of Project Natal and Sony's "Arc" could play a role in that.
Looking at the game software market (combined U.S. and Europe) for the next several years, Pachter's forecast shows 5% growth in 2010, 7% in 2011, 8% in 2012 and 5% in 2013 "with slight variations between the regions." Breaking it down between U.S. and Europe for this year, Pachter sees Europe growing more (7% vs. 4% in the U.S.) but both regions will experience hardware declines. Total hardware is expected to reach 52.0 million compared to 60.1 million last year. The forecast shows sales of 1.4 million PS2s, 9.8 million PS3s, 3.1 million PSPs, 9.0 million Xbox 360s, 14.7 million Wiis, and 14.0 million DS units.
Regarding tie ratios, Pachter continued, "Our forecast projects that video game software unit sales (console, handheld and PC) will grow to 562 million (from 520 million last year), reflecting a decline in tie ratios of approximately 10% and a decline in average pricing of around 2.5%. In contrast, tie ratios declined approximately 25% and prices declined approximately 3.1% in 2009; we think that the larger than normal drop-off in tie ratios in 2009 was attributable primarily to a decline in demand for music genre games, and we think that further demand declines for the genre will be less impactful in 2010, allowing tie ratios to decline at a more normal rate."
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