So that 2 to 3 x range would be:

November

Wii: 1,000,000 - 1,500,000

360: 700,000 - 1,000,000

PS3: 250,000 - 350,000

That seems about right for November.

PS3 may be in the high part of that range (350k) with the price drop and new model, but the 360 will still probably double it.  Wii sales will be determined by availability more than by some formula based on past data.

Assuming December is 2x November, that would be:

Wii: 2,000,000 - 3,000,000

360: 1,400,000 - 2,000,000

PS3: 500,000 - 700,000

Thanks for that sinha :) So we would have a total of (November+December NPD sales):

Wii - 3,000,000 - 4,500,000 (limited by supply)
360 - 2,100,000 - 3,000,000
PS3 - 750,000 - 1,050,000

These numbers seem to fall in line with TheSource/Siren's estimations, as far as I remember.

Im holding you to you prediction source, f it doesnt happen im making you eat your hat

Actually, I think his numbers will probably be pretty friggin' close.

The X360 last year was almost in lock-step with what he said: it was about 210k in Oct, 510k in Nov, 1,150k in Dec.

He's using historical averages, just not 1-2 years, so I am certain that his numebrs include next-gen transition averages (since we're in the first transitioning year, with all 3 consoles available, and vastly more supply than last year).

Seeing the X360 get 2.5m in Nov/Dec would make me giddy :)

Interesting.

I have this in my spreadsheet. Though, I think I am wrong anyways.

Nov
Wii = 650,000
360 = 500,000
PS3 = 300,000

Dec
Wii = 1,200,000
360 = 750,000
PS3 = 650,000

I may be good with PS3 and close/little low with 360. But, I think I am pretty low on Wii.

The numbers and the methodology seem solid. I am not entirely sure why anyone thinks that the numbers having a correlation to this sites own data is a bad thing. These numbers maintain the same margin we saw in last weeks sales. Why look for the sales to be an anomaly.

Honestly there is far too much wishful thinking, and not enough critical thinking. Critical thinking would tell you that trends would persist, and if they were to change it would be gradually. The PS3 wouldn't suddenly pick up a huge head of steam while the others remained flat. The 360 has been outperforming the PS3 for quite some time by a large margin. Why seriously why do some posters think the PS3 will match the 360. The Wii has sold around twenty five percent more then the 360 over the past few weeks.

There still isn't an explanation from those expecting an anomaly as to exactly how it would happen. The Wii is still the cheapest console. Followed by the 360 followed by the PS3. The Wii has probably the strongest casual library. The 360 has the strongest hardcore library. The PS3 is more geared to the hardcore, but doesn't have as strong a library. Seriously exactly where will the PS3 gain momentum against the other two, and how could the 360 overcome the Wii still being more expensive.

Seriously the Fans of the PS3 need to explain how the unprecedented could happen. They need to explain how the PS3 will sell much better comparatively then it has been. Then explain how its going to tie the 360 which is cheaper, and has the superior library and lineup. Most especially given the year of bad publicity, and consumer price consciousness.

my prediction
Nov
Wii = 875,000
360 = 625,000
PS3 = 325,000

Dec
Wii = 1,600,000
360 = 1,375,000
PS3 = 575,000

Ummm... November is already half finished (it is treated as 4 or 5 weeks?).

First 2 weeks:

PS3: - 55k + 63k = 120k

I would say 300k for November (based on 4 weeks) would be excellent based on those figures.

Wii: 192k + 146k = 338k

360: 173k + 140k =  313k

...

With Black Friday coming, I think those predictions may be close. The Wii will probably do more (esp. if it does 350k this week!), and I think the 360 will be higher too:

(Nov)

Wii = 1.2m

360 = 770k

PS3 = 310k 

This will be a real test of the price drop then to see if the ps3 can buck the trend.

I'd have to say Wii numbers are dependent on shipments, and hype by media, create the image of another shortage, and sales could sky rocket 1.4+

The 360 will not get as much of a benifit as it did last year with out of stock ps3, and wiis, but with a strong line up and new pack ins, and store specials these last few weeks could push it up with the historical 2.X multi.

The PS3 need its ad campaign to get the message out and fast, it also needs to appear a better value than the 360 so in store pushes will be crucial. it needs employee support spouting its virtues, the normal consumer during this season is not going to know which one is a better choice for them and is open to suggestion. so it could pull easily above its numbers or under perform,