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Forums - Sales Discussion - So who thought Sony was crazy when they said the PS3 will sell 13m for 2009

gurglesletch on 26 February 2010

I think that the people that said Sony was crazy are crazy.




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slowmo on 26 February 2010
gurglesletch said:
I think that the people that said Sony was crazy are crazy.

When did they announce the shipment though, for some reason I seem to think it was before the Slim and price cut was announced.



joeorc on 26 February 2010
slowmo said:
@Joeorc - I deliberately didn't bring up the numbers of the PS3 because you cannot win that debate against people who have a diffferent opinion to you. I understand every argument you're placing in favour of your point but the weight and relevance you place on those points is tiny in my opinion which is the opposite view to yourself. I'll simply say the demand for the PS3 has been lower and never will be on par to the PS2 (you must be able to at least admit this).

I'm pretty sure by the way that 2010 will be the peak year for the PS3, perhaps 2011 at a BIG push but its all decline after that.

Back to the OP though, the question is did we think Sony was crazy with their shipment figures, the rest of this debate isn't really answering that but going off topic due to one poster saying how the mighty had fallen effectively. 13 million was a lot of consoles to ship but in the grand scheme of things its not that crazy when you compare it to what the PS2 was capable of and the Wii so in that regard, no they weren't crazy, just optimistic. Fair assessment joeorc?

I cannot Agree on that because We still do not know when it's peak year is, It's just a guess because it has not happened yet.

and I do not think it has for the xbox360 also, we have no Idea how the PS3's LTD number's are going to turn out until they do.

otherwise it's a guess.

that's like saying i release a system 1 year over the other's and since the other two release their system's,

I release a whole new system, did the NEW generation start because I release an whole new system?

I think that's where everyone look's at when a new generation start's and End's. if you are talking about a generation what is the span of a generation in time?

5 year's , 6 year's 2 year's?

is it only count's when one of the game system companies release a new system as for a whole new generation start's or does it count only when all three companies have released their new system?

what count's as  optimistic and what is low shipping  on # of system's per year is subject to opinion's every one has got one on what is low and what is not or what one is Optimistic. It depend's on who you ask

 

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

stiak on 26 February 2010

Oh, a response to this old thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=83170

I thought it might be achievable:
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?post=2502494&page=1&postnum=50

I also thought GT5 would be out by now...



 

saicho on 26 February 2010
joeorc said:
saicho said:
joeorc said:
slowmo said:
joeorc said:
saicho said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
If 13 million per year is a crazy sell through, the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million for the year is just being realistic in my opinion.

Pretty much what Sony big wigs were thinking when they were planning to do the price cut/Slim combo.

you stated this:

the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million system's Sold through is not low at all. for a $299.00 priced system, that doese what the playstation 3 does.

hell would you call currently 8.48 million system's sold per year pretty low world wide because that's what the xbox360 is doint right now and the year is not even over with and it is projected to sell over 10 million system's for the year. would you call that low. 8 million system's a year is not something to sneeze at.

the first xbox was at in 4 year's roughly 26 million total system's sold through

that's 6.5 million system's sold a year

the top system sold last generation was the PS2 140 million /10 year's =

14 million per year, and that was the leader.

it's not too far fetched to think 13 million is now low it's pretty d@mn high since what the PS2 was able to do is 14 million per year would you call that low, when the PS2 was the last generation's leader in world wide console's sales?

bacuase you are using the peak (or near peak) for the PS3 numbers to compare to the average annual number of PS2. If PS3 would average 13 million after 10 year (or even 5 years), it would make more sense.

has the PS3 hit it's peak ?

that's the point many people think this generation is at it's peak based on previous generation which I do not think that's even remotely true at all.

 every one pointing out aligned sale's date per year when the PS3 is only been on the market for 2 year's in some cases and only 3.5 in the extreme.

and they alway's point to how the PS1 did or the PS2 did..

which is pretty pointless because the PS2 disd not start out at $500.00 or $600.00

the PS2 did not have as many incentives to purchase as the Playstation 2  did in it's 3rd year as the PS3 does, yes the PS2 had great game's a as a great incentive to purchase the system, but release the PS2 today or better yet launch the PS2 in 2005 how would it have done against the xbox360?

that's the big point the PS2 and the PS3 are not even in the same legue or even in the same sport.

 

You made an error by quoting an average for shipping figures, this might be Sony's peak year so it needs to be hitting peak year shipping figures of the PS2, not an average for comparisons sake.  You actually brought the PS2 into the discussion joeorc, so nobody else is misguided in comparing past and present it was your statement oringinally fella.

my point is why must the PS3  hit it's peak right now this year?

no  i brought in the PS2 for sale's because many people refer to system's "PEAK" YEAR BASED ON THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM'S DATA!

which you cannot expect that to be the case because already this generation has broke so many of those past trend's there is no real way to even compare the two , but many seem's to do just that when they view these generation's system's peak year. because previous generation peak year's seem to be 5 th year.

Previous generation's did not have the last place system getting the development support that the PS3 is getting

last generation did not have a $500.00 or $600.00 game console sell as well as the Playstation 3 has

it's not the same generation.

Please see the bolded part in Red.

The fact remains that you use the best annual number PS3 has so far to compare to the average annual number for PS2.

and since the ps3 has only bin in the market 3 .5 year's total. did the PS3 start out at an entry price of $300.00?

no?

was the PS2 xbox360, or game cube ERA have a homeforeclosure, and unemployment #'s as high as it is right now?

no?

so what should you use for the average?

the PS3 has only been on the market at most 3,5 year's an that is not even every where in every region

that's like saying well takinging in aligned launches, yea you could but yet again the PS2 was not @$500.00

inflation 10 year's ago to to day would not be the big point it's the IDEA you as the Consumer would have to pay $500.00 or $600.00 that same thing would have had the same effect on the PS2 as it did on the PS3 because many consumer's will only pay what they feel they can pay.

$500.00+ is still $500.00

that perception has not changed even from 10 year's ago

and people expected Sony to think that that would be any different today as it would have been back than?

 

So basically you are saying based on the high price, the shitty economy, the countries that PS3 is not in, inflation doesn't count and all other factors, you can't really compare the average numbers for PS3 to the average number for PS2 but comparing one year nnumber of PS3 to average number of PS2 is ok.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

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joeorc on 26 February 2010
Twistedpixel said:
joeorc said:
Twistedpixel said:

Not d@mn good enough if they cut the price by a 3rd within 6 months of EU release and 12 months of US release. Oh and the PS3 was less than the PS2 launch price after 6 months not accounting for inflation. 430E vs 400. It was only significantly more expensive in America and perhaps Japan. Everywhere else I saw it had the PS3 at or cheaper than PS2 price at launch or soon after.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Europe&cons2=PS3&reg2=Europe&cons3=PS&reg3=Europe&weeks=156

Thats with pretty similar prices so theres no argument that its got anything to do with launching too high. Its probably got more to do with the strong Wii sales and decent Xbox 360 sales as both systems got compelling content out the door much faster than Sony did with the PS3.

yes it does, inflation is like sying $500.00 is not $500.00 its the perception of that value, if the PS2 was released in the USA at that Price how would it have done even than?

i bet along the same line's as the PS3 has done. you can have great support for a system, but if the perception of the entry price is too high it would not matter!

example:

many people today who have been keeping pace with this , would have said the PS3 was too expensive @ $500.00+ but many went a head and paid $400.00 for the xbox360. it's like the old afddage it's not $20.00 it's $19.95.

many people complained about the Price of $500,00 for the PS3 BUT PAY $400.00 FOR SEAT'S TO A OSU home game that they get to go to one!

value perception has more to do with it than just price.

Why are you talking about dollars? Im saying that in Europe the price has never been a factor because for the most part the price has always been as high as it was. Since price is removed as a factor then you have to look at the good work of the competition for the reasons why the PS3 performed poorly relative to the PS2 in that region.

Within 6 months of the PS2s launch there were a lot of shortages, within 6 months of the PS3s launch the price was too high. That doesn't make much difference in terms of overall demand for that region as one roughly counters the other and then the PS3 price drops and availability is no longer constrained so therefore extremely comparable.

The world doesn't revolve around the U.S. and the price of the Playstation there. Read the graph again and see that the PS3 falls behind the PS2 and price was never a factor. The Wii stole the Playstation market and ditto for the Xbox 360 to a lesser extent. The PS3 got schooled because the other consoles got appealing content and experiences out faster and more often in the first couple of years. It had nothing to do with the PS3 being too expensive.

No it does not ,but on the same token the US is not europe just like Europe is not the US you keep pointing out that Europe is the ACID TEST. why would the United states not be an Acid test also? it's all subjective.

And once again it's the percieved Value of the product @ Price I am not saying the percieved value had nothing to do with it vs' other system's out there, I am saying on a region by region basis PRICE had a big detriment to the sell of the system.

 as an example:

singapore of $799.00 for the PS3 when it was first released.

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

Bamboleo on 26 February 2010

Crazy?

Like 13 million is some sort of huge number?



Grimes on 26 February 2010

Selling a product for $600 isn't great when the product cost $800 to make.



Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.

joeorc on 26 February 2010
saicho said:
joeorc said:
saicho said:
joeorc said:
slowmo said:
joeorc said:
saicho said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
If 13 million per year is a crazy sell through, the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million for the year is just being realistic in my opinion.

Pretty much what Sony big wigs were thinking when they were planning to do the price cut/Slim combo.

you stated this:

the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million system's Sold through is not low at all. for a $299.00 priced system, that doese what the playstation 3 does.

hell would you call currently 8.48 million system's sold per year pretty low world wide because that's what the xbox360 is doint right now and the year is not even over with and it is projected to sell over 10 million system's for the year. would you call that low. 8 million system's a year is not something to sneeze at.

the first xbox was at in 4 year's roughly 26 million total system's sold through

that's 6.5 million system's sold a year

the top system sold last generation was the PS2 140 million /10 year's =

14 million per year, and that was the leader.

it's not too far fetched to think 13 million is now low it's pretty d@mn high since what the PS2 was able to do is 14 million per year would you call that low, when the PS2 was the last generation's leader in world wide console's sales?

bacuase you are using the peak (or near peak) for the PS3 numbers to compare to the average annual number of PS2. If PS3 would average 13 million after 10 year (or even 5 years), it would make more sense.

has the PS3 hit it's peak ?

that's the point many people think this generation is at it's peak based on previous generation which I do not think that's even remotely true at all.

 every one pointing out aligned sale's date per year when the PS3 is only been on the market for 2 year's in some cases and only 3.5 in the extreme.

and they alway's point to how the PS1 did or the PS2 did..

which is pretty pointless because the PS2 disd not start out at $500.00 or $600.00

the PS2 did not have as many incentives to purchase as the Playstation 2  did in it's 3rd year as the PS3 does, yes the PS2 had great game's a as a great incentive to purchase the system, but release the PS2 today or better yet launch the PS2 in 2005 how would it have done against the xbox360?

that's the big point the PS2 and the PS3 are not even in the same legue or even in the same sport.

 

You made an error by quoting an average for shipping figures, this might be Sony's peak year so it needs to be hitting peak year shipping figures of the PS2, not an average for comparisons sake.  You actually brought the PS2 into the discussion joeorc, so nobody else is misguided in comparing past and present it was your statement oringinally fella.

my point is why must the PS3  hit it's peak right now this year?

no  i brought in the PS2 for sale's because many people refer to system's "PEAK" YEAR BASED ON THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM'S DATA!

which you cannot expect that to be the case because already this generation has broke so many of those past trend's there is no real way to even compare the two , but many seem's to do just that when they view these generation's system's peak year. because previous generation peak year's seem to be 5 th year.

Previous generation's did not have the last place system getting the development support that the PS3 is getting

last generation did not have a $500.00 or $600.00 game console sell as well as the Playstation 3 has

it's not the same generation.

Please see the bolded part in Red.

The fact remains that you use the best annual number PS3 has so far to compare to the average annual number for PS2.

and since the ps3 has only bin in the market 3 .5 year's total. did the PS3 start out at an entry price of $300.00?

no?

was the PS2 xbox360, or game cube ERA have a homeforeclosure, and unemployment #'s as high as it is right now?

no?

so what should you use for the average?

the PS3 has only been on the market at most 3,5 year's an that is not even every where in every region

that's like saying well takinging in aligned launches, yea you could but yet again the PS2 was not @$500.00

inflation 10 year's ago to to day would not be the big point it's the IDEA you as the Consumer would have to pay $500.00 or $600.00 that same thing would have had the same effect on the PS2 as it did on the PS3 because many consumer's will only pay what they feel they can pay.

$500.00+ is still $500.00

that perception has not changed even from 10 year's ago

and people expected Sony to think that that would be any different today as it would have been back than?

 

So basically you are saying based on the high price, the shitty economy, the countries that PS3 is not in, inflation doesn't count and all other factors, you can't really compare the average numbers for PS3 to the average number for PS2 but comparing one year nnumber of PS3 to average number of PS2 is ok.

no..what I am pointing out there is to many thing's that seperate this gen from last generation with the short ammount of time we have had in this generation, that the Data about when a system's going to hit it's peak, or how long one system is going to be on the market is subjective on each persion's opinion, and I think there has not been enough time for these system's in the market to come to a conclussion about when each system's peak year will be, based on that you cannot point out a downward trend for the system sale's yet because we have In my opinion we have not even come close to the current game system's peak year and I do not think we are even close to it. even next year.

thus there is not enough data by looking at past trend's to get a accurate time line for these current system's peak year which pretty much throw's out the "because the PS1, AND PS2 TRENDED THIS WAY THE PEAK YEAR FOR THE ps3 SHOULD BE HERE.

yes I Understand people has that opinion about why they think the PS3's peak year is this year, but I do not agree with it based on what Data we have right now.



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

greenmedic88 on 26 February 2010

SCE made those projections based upon information they knew ahead of time before the general public did.

If the 13m projections had been for a $399 PS3, then yes, everyone would be absolutely right to think SCE's projections were unreasonable at the very least, peyote induced crazy fantasy at worst. But those projections were obviously made around a $299 hardware revision in time for the holiday season.

This is why many people who predicted a $299 slim knew it was coming when SCE released its annual projections. It was the only feasible way they could hit 13m.

As for these projections being low, everyone who believes this post a list of consoles that sold 13m in a year at $399 for the first half of the year, and $299 for the back half.

1. ...
2. ...
3. ...

My guess is there will be exactly one console on that list in about a month.

Secondly, for those who deliriously believe 13m/year is where the PS3 is going to peak, it must be based upon insider information that the PS3 will in fact be stopping production at $299, either because SCE plans to sell the console at that price for the next 7 years, or because SCE plans to exit the console business before they drop production costs/MSRP again.

The majority of total sales for any given console has been under $199 without fail since the inception of the console business. Does anyone actually think the 7th gen will be any different?