http://digg.com/gaming_news/Worldwide_Wii_sales_are_now_only_4_million_behind_Xbox360_closing_the_gap How long before Wii > 360?

Not long.

Within 6 months Wii will equal X360 in sales!

At the most it will take Holiday sales.

Well, there's two main factors... 1. Wii supply... Can Nintendo ramp up production fast enough? 2. 360 sales acceleration... Its tentatively starting... With a price cut and GTA4, 360 could start moving much faster in the US and Europe... But how much? Could be anywhere from fall this year, to early spring next year... But its going to happen...

World Wide is a given. But I'm more interested to see how quickly it catches up in the NA and Pal markets. The Wii is a run away train to be sure, but it looks like the 360 is starting to pick up steam as well(I like train analogies). The competition might not be so one sided as the months go by. Then there's the PS3, which is a complete derailment . Just kidding.

I think the ps3 will not be a major factor until 2008 , then i expect some major changes and developments . The wii will lead the xbox 360 by nov or dec at the latest . I expect they both will trail the ps3 by xmas 2008 . The numbers will be very close in my opinion between all three .

Look at like this. 4 million behind. 9 months left in the year. Wii has to outsell 360 every month by an average of 444,444 units. Look at January - Wii sold 120k more than 360 in the Americas, 400,000 more in Japan, and (anecdotally) more in Europe as well - call it 600,000. If it outsold 360 by 600,000 for the next 7 months...Wii/360 userbase is about equal in September. Wii steams ahead in October. Wii will probably sell 250,000 to 450,000 in the Americas through October. 300,000 or so in non-big game months in Japan (March)..but when big games come out like Paper Mario (Apr), sales will be more like 450,000 in Japan..through October. Europe is similar to Americas. It really comes down to Wii outselling 360 in either North America or Europe during the March-October period. Huge Japanese and North American sales are all but guarenteed to close the gap alot in Nov-Dec, because Halo 3 will not be as big in Europe and GTA is not exclusive.