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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Microsoft to become largest 3rd party publisher.

I wasn't happy that Pemalite was rather mean to my video post and made some untrue assumptions about my post intentions, so to please him, here's where I was going to take that locked thread, but now in text only form.

Microsoft has ruined Xbox, the business decision to push Game Pass above all else is a disaster that is playing out in front of us all.

Starfield not pushing the needle in hardware sales and Gamepass simply doesn't generate the revenue to fund the running and development costs of the Many, many Microsoft Game studios.  I did layout the maths in the video I created, but I'm not linking it again as I don't want to be branded as self promoting.

We saw in the FTC leak the costs of bringing 3rd party games to the service.  We know that games like COD are costing around a billion dollars to get out the door now.  So with all the costs of development and maintenance outweighing what the service is actually bring in, at some point something has to give.

Xbox sales are slowing down, Game Pass is not bringing in new users to the Xbox Console eco system, Starfield actually saw two thirds of its sales from PC users.  So what's actually happening here?  Xbox players are migrating to either PC or leaving the system altogether and going to PlayStation.

In a world where the primary Game Pass platform is PC, Microsoft has a problem.  PC gaming is too entrenched in Steam for Microsoft to realistically find more than 50 million users, and with Xbox console sales stalling Microsoft has to do something.

That something is to become the biggest 3rd party in the industry.  I think Game Pass will continue on as Microsoft's PC subscription service, although all Microsoft studio's titles will see releases on Steam, PlayStation and Nintendo. 

I also think we are looking at the last Xbox generation in the Series X|S consoles.  With Game Pass failing to push Microsoft out of 3rd place, they will refocus their efforts into becoming the biggest powerhouse 3rd party publisher in the industry because this makes the most business sense.

I believe the timeline will look something like this:

  • 2024: Starfield is announced for PlayStation 5
  • 2026: Xbox Game Pass is re-branded to Microsoft Game Pass
  • 2027: Microsoft announce that there will be no new Xbox consoles


Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

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I dont know. They have been losing billions ever since they entered the console business and pretty much every year since that. They just have an endless amount of cash.

and now that they own Activision Blizzard and Bethesda. I dont think they will go full third party anytime soon.



It’s mind blowing that chronic forum dwellers, have so little grasp on the video game market discussed on this platform. Xbox is second in revenue in terms of revenue from platform holders, in front of Nintendo, even though the latter sells more consoles.
Xbox have better profit margin than PlayStation, even though Sony brings in more revenue, only to be superseded by Nintendo.
It seems like we’re still in 2013.

https://gameranx.com/updates/id/476524/article/xboxs-data-suggests-they-might-have-a-better-profit-margin-than-playstation/#:~:text=For%20the%20first%20nine%20months%20of%20FY2022%2C%20which,in%20comparison%20to%20their%20competitors%2C%20PlayStation%2C%20and%20Nintendo.



They already are the biggest 3rd party publisher though, they just happen to have a console as well.
I don't see them giving up on that as early as next gen, what could maybe happen at some point is for them to switch over to PC based consoles alá Steam Deck. When they inevitable go all digital (don't know about the others but MS definitely has that in their sights) I think that might make a lot of sense for them.



Try out my free game on Steam

2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

So many factual errors and baseless speculation that it's painful.

As a side note, if you want your post to be taken seriously for constructive criticism/debate, maybe don't have signatures that say, "Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money." and have your home country be listed as "PlayStation." At least try to hide visible bias before making posts like this.

As far as any comments of mine, Microsoft has put themselves in a no-lose situation. Whether you're playing purchased games on Xbox/PC or Game Pass on Xbox/PC, you're giving Xbox money. Revenue and profitability is proving that. 



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Goatseye said:

It’s mind blowing that chronic forum dwellers, have so little grasp on the video game market discussed on this platform. Xbox is second in revenue in terms of revenue from platform holders, in front of Nintendo, even though the latter sells more consoles.
Xbox have better profit margin than PlayStation, even though Sony brings in more revenue, only to be superseded by Nintendo.
It seems like we’re still in 2013.

https://gameranx.com/updates/id/476524/article/xboxs-data-suggests-they-might-have-a-better-profit-margin-than-playstation/#:~:text=For%20the%20first%20nine%20months%20of%20FY2022%2C%20which,in%20comparison%20to%20their%20competitors%2C%20PlayStation%2C%20and%20Nintendo.

Doesnt matter when they spend 60+ billion to buy a company. They are not making a profit. They spend more than they make. Easy as that.



KLXVER said:
Goatseye said:

It’s mind blowing that chronic forum dwellers, have so little grasp on the video game market discussed on this platform. Xbox is second in revenue in terms of revenue from platform holders, in front of Nintendo, even though the latter sells more consoles.
Xbox have better profit margin than PlayStation, even though Sony brings in more revenue, only to be superseded by Nintendo.
It seems like we’re still in 2013.

https://gameranx.com/updates/id/476524/article/xboxs-data-suggests-they-might-have-a-better-profit-margin-than-playstation/#:~:text=For%20the%20first%20nine%20months%20of%20FY2022%2C%20which,in%20comparison%20to%20their%20competitors%2C%20PlayStation%2C%20and%20Nintendo.

Doesnt matter when they spend 60+ billion to buy a company. They are not making a profit. They spend more than they make. Easy as that.

You probably should have read the link before making this comment. In short, Xbox was still in the profit margin even in their worst first party output year being 2022. Even if you remove Sony and Nintendo, Xbox is still making a profit. 



gtotheunit91 said:
KLXVER said:

Doesnt matter when they spend 60+ billion to buy a company. They are not making a profit. They spend more than they make. Easy as that.

You probably should have read the link before making this comment. In short, Xbox was still in the profit margin even in their worst first party output year being 2022. 

Corporate BS talk. You should know better by now. How the hell would they make that kinda money after buying like 10 studios? Ridiculous...



KLXVER said:
gtotheunit91 said:

You probably should have read the link before making this comment. In short, Xbox was still in the profit margin even in their worst first party output year being 2022. 

Corporate BS talk. You should know better by now. How the hell would they make that kinda money after buying like 10 studios? Ridiculous...

Corporate BS talk? This is financial information they provided directly to the FTC you can call BS all you want, but numbers don't lie. If you want to ignore every piece of financial information that a publicly traded company provides during legal proceedings that can directly affect the outcome of a $70 billion acquisition, that's your prerogative. 

You screaming "they're losing money because I think so!" doesn't change anything. 



gtotheunit91 said:
KLXVER said:

Corporate BS talk. You should know better by now. How the hell would they make that kinda money after buying like 10 studios? Ridiculous...

Corporate BS talk? This is financial information they provided directly to the FTC you can call BS all you want, but numbers don't lie. If you want to ignore every piece of financial information that a publicly traded company provides during legal proceedings, that's your prerogative. 

You screaming "they're losing money because I think so!" doesn't change anything. 

Yeah, its like a guy with a million dollar debt bragging about making 100 dollars. Great job...