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Forums - Sales Discussion - September Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

September 2023 Circana (NPD) covers the five week period from August 27 to September 30 and will be released on October 18.

Yes, I forgot to get this thread up earlier, so you only have until tomorrow at 9am ET / 6am PT to get your predictions in.

Since NPD leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

  1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
  2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
  3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000

TLDR:

Units: 1. PS5 2. XS 3. NS
Revenue: 1. PS5 2. XS 3. NS

YTD Units: 1. PS5 2. NS 3. XS
YTD Revenue: 1. PS5 2. NS 3. XS

Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 Best-Selling Console in the US in September, Xbox Had Best September Since 2016 

The PlayStation 5 was the best-selling console in the US in September 2023 in terms of units sold and dollar sales, according to figures from Circana (formerly The NPD Group). Circana includes the dates for the five week period of August 27 to September 30.

The Xbox Series X|S was the second best-selling console in terms of units sold and dollar sales, while the Nintendo Switch came in third place for both metrics.

Xbox Series X|S dollar sales increased in the single-digital percentage, while the PlayStation 5 and Nintendo Switch saw declines year-on-year.

Xbox Series X|S had the best September for Xbox since September 2016 in terms of units sold and the best since September 2014 in terms of dollar sales.

2023 year-to-date the PlayStation 5 is the best-selling console in terms of both units sold and dollar sales.

Overall spending on video games in September was up 10 percent year-on-year from $4.07 billion to $4.50 billion. Spending on video game content increased 13 percent from $3.40 billion to $3.85 billion, while video game hardware sales dropped eight percent percent from $490 million to $451 million.

Overall spending on video games in 2023 year-to-date is up two percent from $38.43 billion to $39.38 billion. Spending on video game content is up two percent from $33.49 billion to $34.08 billion, while video game hardware sales is up 10 percent from $3.36 billion to $3.70 billion.

"U.S. consumer spending on video game content, hardware and accessories grew 10% compared to a year ago, totaling $4.5B," said Circana Executive Director and Video Game Industry Analyst Mat Piscatella. "Growth in spending on video game content and accessories offset an 8% decline in hardware."

Piscatella added, "Spending on video game content in September increased 13% vs YA, reaching $3.8B. Growth in digital premium download spending across console & PC drove most of the gains. Non-mobile subscription spending fell 2%, while Sensor Tower reported mobile spending growth of 4%."

There were six new releases in the top 20 best-selling games. Starfield debuted in first place and is already the seventh best-selling game of 2023. It was the best-selling game on Xbox and PC, with it selling more on PC.

Mortal Kombat 1 debuted in second place and is the eighth best-selling game of 2023. It was the best-selling game on PlayStation, second on Xbox and PC, and third on the Nintendo Switch.

EA Sport FC 24 debuted in third place and saw double-digit growth in units sold an dollar sales when compared to FIFA 23 a year ago. It is the 14th best-selling game of 2023.

Payday 3 debuted in fifth place, NBA 2K24 debuted in sixth place, and The Crew Motorfest debuted in seventh place.

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in terms of dollars for September 2023:

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in 2023 year-to-date:

Last edited by trunkswd - on 18 October 2023

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Last years Monthly results for reference, Switch monthly numbers for 2022 were not leaked. The PS5 will do well to match September 2022 because it sold 494k which is absolutely huge, XBS sold 288k and should be up yoy.

2022 Monthly Sales (NPD)

PS5 XBS
Jan 369k 307k
Feb 128k 261k
Mar 282k 489k
Apr 234k 267k
May 119k 177k
Jun 277k 260k
Jul 301k 247k
Aug 341k 251k
Sep 494k 288k
Oct 456k 261k
Nov 1328k 730k
Dec 1331k 942k
Total 5660k 4480k

2022 Yearly sales (NPD)

2022 LTD
NSW 5.830.000 39.410.000
PS5 5.660.000 11.900.000
XBS 4.480.000 9.700.000
PS4 50.000 34.760.000


Should be a big month for both PS5 and Xbox

Revenue: 420 mil

[PS5] 450k
[XBS] 300k
[NS] 220k



Try out my free game on Steam

2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

PS5- 510K
xbox- 370k
Switch- 280k



How could I know trunkswd ? Tell me how ?



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OP updated with results



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Decreases for both the PS5 and Switch, while Xbox enjoys it's biggest release boosting sales ... to only the 2nd place. Yet spending on hardware decreased.

How do we interpret the tally then ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

No Pikmin 4 in the top 20 is upsetting. Tho it's not really a surprise, it's a niche franchise after all. Maybe it would be if digital is included for Nintendo titles.



Seems like GT7 has been outlegging Horizon 2 everywhere. Curious how close it is to the 10 million mark.

FFXV had a decent start but fell like a rock unfortunately, I partly blame its action heavy (almost non-RPG) direction and seemingly disappointing story, but the Final Fantasy brand just isn't growing outside 14. I'm hopeful FF7 Rebirth will change this thanks to a bump in quality (I expect 92 on Metacritic and a great word of mouth) and a Switch 2 port. Maybe an Xbox port too.

Great result for MK1.

Starfield opened well with PC leading in sales as expected, but the console selling impact is negligible. Nowhere near enough to challenge the PS5. But with ABK under them, Microsoft is now officially the biggest game software company out there. Sony isn't even close.

I wonder if Wonder and SM2 will both enter the top 5 year to date in the next report.



Mar1217 said:

Decreases for both the PS5 and Switch, while Xbox enjoys it's biggest release boosting sales... to only the 2nd place. Yet spending on hardware decreased.

How do we interpret the tally then ?

Either:

The PS5 may include some days when it was still on sale in August.  Which would drop dollars even if sales were up slightly.

The Switch sales basically collapsed.  This is expected everywhere except for Japan.

The Xbox hardware boost includes an increase in Series X availability in addition to the newly released/more expensive S unit.  With that combo it can easily be behind PS5 while basically breaking a record.

or a combination of the three.

I agree.  Its hard to reconcile record $s for Xbox with second place.  And then PS5 in first but down in $.  Again this would all require the Switch to be down be quite a lot.  What would be helpful is if we knew Xbox sales for September 2016.  We could then find the floor for Xbox and PS5 and then if we knew the sales for Switch last year, we could find the ceiling for Switch and then adjust until we got to 450 million.   Good luck to Chartz with this one.   If it turns out we have to make corrections, I would definitely be looking to September 23 as a major culprit.