There's a few more hurdles left.
- There's still a TRO on Microsoft acquiring Activision-Blizzard in America which lasts until today, at midnight PST.
- The FTC is appealing their PI loss (very unlikely to succeed) but they're also appealing for an emergency stay to extend the TRO beyond today.
- It's unlikely that the FTC will get their emergency stay but the courts could give them a temporary one which lasts until next week, before deciding on the full emergency stay. The reason that may happen is because the FTC has left things so late that they only requested an emergency stay last night and the appeals court has until tonight to decide if Microsoft is intending on closing on Monday.
However, the appeals court doesn't have to respond tonight if they don't want to, it's FTCs fault that they've left it this late but courts sometimes go with caution on these things, if they don't know the details of the case, they may just issue a short emergency stay while they investigate it some more.
- The CMA still has a block on Microsoft acquiring ABK as far as we know, despite the CMA and Microsoft coming back together to work on a deal and the CMA's final issue has been delayed to late August until of July 18th but they aim to get it done ASAP.
Your scenario isn't entirely unlikely, if the FTC loses their emergency stay and if the CMA allows Microsoft to ignore their block then Microsoft could close on Monday, that is a possibility if the CMA and Microsoft are close to a deal anyway and it's just signing the documents now. Microsoft could also choose to ignore CMA's block if FTC loses their emergency stay (which would come with consequences) and may be a risky move now that they're back at the negotiation table with the CMA.
First things first, we need to see if the FTC gets their emergency stay, which is unlikely, but a shorter one is possible while they investigate handing out a longer one. The FTC will almost certainly lose their appeal to the PI but if they win their emergency stay it could delay things by weeks, if not months.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 14 July 2023