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Forums - Sales Discussion - Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury shipped 7.45m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury shipped 7.45m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 8 million 18 3.60%
 
8.0 - 9.4 million 31 6.20%
 
9.5 - 10.9 million 107 21.40%
 
11.0 - 12.4 million 104 20.80%
 
12.5 - 13.9 million 81 16.20%
 
14.0 - 15.4 million 65 13.00%
 
15.5 - 16.9 million 42 8.40%
 
17.0 - 18.4 million 11 2.20%
 
18.5 - 20.0 million 10 2.00%
 
More than 20 million 31 6.20%
 
Total:500

Nintendo re-released the Wii U game Super Mario 3D World on Switch with the included bonus of Bowser's Fury, a new short 3D Mario game that can be completed comfortably under ten hours. This package has shipped 7.45m since its release in February 2021. The quarterly breakdown of shipments is as follows:

March 2021 - 5.59m
June 2021 - 1.09m
September 2021 - 0.77m

What are your lifetime sales expectations?

...

Bonus question: Did you like Bowser's Fury?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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RolStoppable said:

Nintendo re-released the Wii U game Super Mario 3D World on Switch with the included bonus of Bowser's Fury, a new short 3D Mario game that can be completed comfortably under ten hours. This package has shipped 7.45m since its release in February 2021. The quarterly breakdown of shipments is as follows:

March 2021 - 5.59m
June 2021 - 1.09m
September 2021 - 0.77m

What are your lifetime sales expectations?

...

Bonus question: Did you like Bowser's Fury?

It's kinda losing its legs pretty rapidly, so I wouldn't expect the game to go further than 10m which is still VERY commendable considering how hard it is for many games to reach that number lol.

I LOVED Bowser's Fury and I'm really hoping that kind of open environment is how they treat 3D Mario games going forward. 



It's not like it's going to magically stop selling. It'll get the usual big holiday boost that Mario games get, and then it'll have respectable legs after that, albeit not as long or as big as Odyssey's but that's because Odyssey launched at the beginning of the Switch's life cycle and... Odyssey is just the better game.

So somewhere within the 18.5-20 million range is my guess.

BQ: Absolutely! Bowser's Fury was awesome and it makes me very much looking forward to the next 3D Mario game. Especially if they decide to make a full-fledged, traditional 3D Mario game with the control scheme and power ups of Bowser's Fury. I think there's a lot of potential in making an entirely new 3D Mario game in that style.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 22 November 2021

gtotheunit91 said:

It's kinda losing its legs pretty rapidly, so I wouldn't expect the game to go further than 10m which is still VERY commendable considering how hard it is for many games to reach that number lol.

I LOVED Bowser's Fury and I'm really hoping that kind of open environment is how they treat 3D Mario games going forward. 

0.77m in the third quarter is quite a big number. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe works as a good comparison, because it released in January 2019, so that aligns almost perfectly with SM3DW's February release. NSMBU shipped 0.49m during its third quarter (4.59m LTD at that point) and by September 30th 2021 it has reached almost 11.5m.

You can take a look at the sales progression of big Nintendo titles in this spreadsheet, scroll to the right for individual games. My expectation is that Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury will cross the 10m mark by June 2022 and of course it will continue to sell afterwards. Basically, picking any of the options below 12.5m is a safe bet to be wrong.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Bower's Fury was really a great addition. It was a nice mix of Odyssey and 3D World. There's some quirks to iron out, like having some Shines tied to Bowser's fury mode made it a bit annoying to collect the last few Shines since I had to wait for him to get angry in between each one. Plessie controlled perfectly in that game and the Shines associated with him were pure joy.



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Over 15mil. It's legs are a bit shorter than I anticipated before launch, but it's selling very good nonetheless.

Bowser's Fury is amazing. It feels incredibly fresh and exciting. I want a full longer game with this concept.



17.5m because it will have legs for the next 3 years. It's quarterly sales have been 5.59m, 1.09m and 0.77m which compares favourably against the first 3 quarters for NSMBUD which were 3.31m, 0.79m and 0.49m so it is almost 3m up launch aligned. NSMBUD has sold 11.48m so far and will sell over 15m, of course SM3DW+BF has far less time to sell but i think it can catch and outsell NSMBUD but it will take maybe 3 years..

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 22 November 2021

Im thinking it will be in the 14-15.9 range.

Yes. I enjoyed Bowsers Fury quite a bit. Wouldnt mind a full 3D Mario game like that.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Picked the 14m to 15.9m range. I think it will narrowly cross 14 million in the end, which is pretty commendable. That would make it the second best selling 3D Mario.



That's amazing! It definitely deserves the sales as it didn't get the love it deserved on the Wii U.