No one said it wasn't sound (though it has issues). We concluded that more should happen before jumping to conclusions and probabilities are based on some form of evidence (or a likely conclusion based on a high chance of something happening — which we cannot even begin to conclude since we know so little).
We know that the PS5 and XSX will be very similar, we know that AAA third party multiplats are the main driver of sales for both PS and Xbox, and we know how the PS4 and XB1 sold. The prices of the PS5 and XSX are about the only important pieces of the puzzle that are missing, hence why only probabilities can be discussed.
There's nothing wrong with doing it for other regions either, which is something you've already done.
Definitely too early. Let's let these things even release before proclaiming victories (though I think EU and Japan are very likely to sway Sony again). NA, on the other hand, is a constant swinging pendulum and trying to call it now is pointless.
Yeah, based on a higher probability is why I made my claim (EU/JP are not territories PlayStation and Xbox trade blows over, the latter is always dominated). Something catastrophic could happen, sure, but, in the end, even Sony's worst home console effort had little trouble dominating Xbox's best. It's 3/3.
As far as what we know, we technically don't know all of those things just yet. :P
In this day and age, system specs are very important (yes, there are rumors, but as with every new gen, they can be way off). Next, multiplats drive sales, sure, but they likely won't be enough to sway a side on their own (and we, again, need specs to know who will lead that charge). And finally, price. It was one of the driver's of this and last gens' results. Especially in NA, making it a rather big deal.
Thus, it's more realistic to wait before claiming one side has something like NA in the bag is ultimately all I was getting at to P0ison (though this makes for great discussion, so perhaps it isn't such a bad thing).
Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 19 January 2020