Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts December 2019 Discussion Thread

RolStoppable said:
CGI-Quality said:

Saying what you said is making a prediction. That's fine to do so, but we simply think it is too early to make some of those calls. Without a line-up, release date, or price, it's throwing honey hoping it will stick to something. Some of those very same proclamations were made at the beginning of this gen and that's why it makes more sense to wait until things have begun to happen.

Talking about the probability of something to happen isn't the same thing as making a prediction. Considering that the Xbox One is only ~5m behind the PS4 despite all the fumbles that Microsoft committed, an XSX that is equally priced to the PS5 has a higher chance to beat the PS5 than vice versa. The statement and reasoning are completely sound.

No one said it wasn't sound (though it has issues). We concluded that more should happen before jumping to conclusions and probabilities are based on some form of evidence (or a likely conclusion based on a high chance of something happening — which we cannot even begin to conclude since we know so little). 



                                                                                                             

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CGI-Quality said:
RolStoppable said:

Talking about the probability of something to happen isn't the same thing as making a prediction. Considering that the Xbox One is only ~5m behind the PS4 despite all the fumbles that Microsoft committed, an XSX that is equally priced to the PS5 has a higher chance to beat the PS5 than vice versa. The statement and reasoning are completely sound.

No one said it wasn't sound (though it has issues). We concluded that more should happen before jumping to conclusions and probabilities are based on some form of evidence (or a likely conclusion based on a high chance of something happening — which we cannot even begin to conclude since we know so little). 

We know that the PS5 and XSX will be very similar, we know that AAA third party multiplats are the main driver of sales for both PS and Xbox, and we know how the PS4 and XB1 sold. The prices of the PS5 and XSX are about the only important pieces of the puzzle that are missing, hence why only probabilities can be discussed.

There's nothing wrong with doing it for other regions either, which is something you've already done.

CGI-Quality said:

Definitely too early. Let's let these things even release before proclaiming victories (though I think EU and Japan are very likely to sway Sony again). NA, on the other hand, is a constant swinging pendulum and trying to call it now is pointless.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
CGI-Quality said:

No one said it wasn't sound (though it has issues). We concluded that more should happen before jumping to conclusions and probabilities are based on some form of evidence (or a likely conclusion based on a high chance of something happening — which we cannot even begin to conclude since we know so little). 

We know that the PS5 and XSX will be very similar, we know that AAA third party multiplats are the main driver of sales for both PS and Xbox, and we know how the PS4 and XB1 sold. The prices of the PS5 and XSX are about the only important pieces of the puzzle that are missing, hence why only probabilities can be discussed.

There's nothing wrong with doing it for other regions either, which is something you've already done.

CGI-Quality said:

Definitely too early. Let's let these things even release before proclaiming victories (though I think EU and Japan are very likely to sway Sony again). NA, on the other hand, is a constant swinging pendulum and trying to call it now is pointless.

Yeah, based on a higher probability is why I made my claim (EU/JP are not territories PlayStation and Xbox trade blows over, the latter is always dominated). Something catastrophic could happen, sure, but, in the end, even Sony's worst home console effort had little trouble dominating Xbox's best. It's 3/3.

As far as what we know, we technically don't know all of those things just yet. :P

In this day and age, system specs are very important (yes, there are rumors, but as with every new gen, they can be way off). Next, multiplats drive sales, sure, but they likely won't be enough to sway a side on their own (and we, again, need specs to know who will lead that charge). And finally, price. It was one of the driver's of this and last gens' results. Especially in NA, making it a rather big deal.  

Thus, it's more realistic to wait before claiming one side has something like NA in the bag is ultimately all I was getting at to P0ison (though this makes for great discussion, so perhaps it isn't such a bad thing).

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 19 January 2020

                                                                                                             

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Xbox One vs Xbox 360 in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Xbox One Vs. Xbox 360 USA:

Gap change in latest month: 1,687,768 – X360

Gap change over last 12 months: 4,772,779 – X360

Total Lead: 5,519,137 – X360

Xbox One Total Sales: 27,486,776

Xbox 360 Total Sales: 33,005,913



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

PS4 vs Wii in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

PlayStation 4 Vs. Wii US:

Gap change in latest month: 146,579 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 1,827,682 – PS4

Total Lead: 8,573,829 – Wii

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 32,080,344

Wii Total Sales: 40,654,173



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

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trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Xbox One vs Xbox 360 in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Xbox One Vs. Xbox 360 USA:

Gap change in latest month: 1,687,768 – X360

Gap change over last 12 months: 4,772,779 – X360

Total Lead: 5,519,137 – X360

Xbox One Total Sales: 27,486,776

Xbox 360 Total Sales: 33,005,913

Yeah, that's the end of this race haha. Effectively anyway, from here on out 360 zooms off to the horizon while Xbone peters out. It was fun while it lasted. Despite finishing third globally (albeit just) the 360 was an absolute monster in the US.

trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

PS4 vs Wii in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

PlayStation 4 Vs. Wii US:

Gap change in latest month: 146,579 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 1,827,682 – PS4

Total Lead: 8,573,829 – Wii

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 32,080,344

Wii Total Sales: 40,654,173

This one is truly fascinating one to watch; I suspect it will be close in the end, but Wii might just keep its lead.



hey, i think that wii/ps4 chart has a mistake. im guessing it isnt meant to say worldwide sales in the second graph, bc ps4 is a bit more than 32 mil atm?



Bet with flashfire926: I think switch will win November NPD, and he thinks xbox one will win (if ps4 is victorious, it's a draw). Loser has to state that they lost in the signature for some time.

LimaBean01 said:
hey, i think that wii/ps4 chart has a mistake. im guessing it isnt meant to say worldwide sales in the second graph, bc ps4 is a bit more than 32 mil atm?

Whoops. That is an error. I just took the worldwide charts I was using for the PS4 vs Wii and changed them to US. I won't be able to update them until late tonight or sometime tomorrow as I'm out all day. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

PS4 vs Wii in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

PlayStation 4 Vs. Wii US:

Gap change in latest month: 146,579 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 1,827,682 – PS4

Total Lead: 8,573,829 – Wii

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 32,080,344

Wii Total Sales: 40,654,173

This one is truly fascinating one to watch; I suspect it will be close in the end, but Wii might just keep its lead.

Since the gap peaked at 11m, the PS4 has only managed to catch up by 2.5m units over the course of two years. The most recent month is only 150k units in favor of the PS4 despite the Wii already being succeeded by the Wii U at this point. The LTD gap is 8.5m and the PS4 has sold 4m during the last twelve months. Even if the Wii didn't add anything anymore and the PS4 remained stable at 4m for the next two years, the Wii would still be ahead.

But the Wii finished at 41.7m and the PS4 will continue to decline in 2020 and then decline even faster in 2021 and onwards. ~2.5m in 2020 and ~1.5m the rest of the way; if you want to be optimistic about the PS4, you can make that 5m in total, putting it at 37.0m lifetime. The Wii already has this one in the bag.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

This one is truly fascinating one to watch; I suspect it will be close in the end, but Wii might just keep its lead.

Since the gap peaked at 11m, the PS4 has only managed to catch up by 2.5m units over the course of two years. The most recent month is only 150k units in favor of the PS4 despite the Wii already being succeeded by the Wii U at this point. The LTD gap is 8.5m and the PS4 has sold 4m during the last twelve months. Even if the Wii didn't add anything anymore and the PS4 remained stable at 4m for the next two years, the Wii would still be ahead.

But the Wii finished at 41.7m and the PS4 will continue to decline in 2020 and then decline even faster in 2021 and onwards. ~2.5m in 2020 and ~1.5m the rest of the way; if you want to be optimistic about the PS4, you can make that 5m in total, putting it at 37.0m lifetime. The Wii already has this one in the bag.

I generally am optimistic in regards to the PS4, mostly cos it has performed better than I expected back in the 7th gen. (Mostly cos I expected Xbox to be more competitive and not shoot themselves in the foot quite so badly this gen)

Still, can't say I'd be unhappy with a Wii victory here haha, it is my second favourite console of all time.