People really expecting PS4 to decline not much more this year compare to 2019 when it's successor is going to take the lead during the holidays and in the news all year. It is already down 30% from estimates in the first week of 2020 with a temporary price cut in japan, which will crash down next week. Depends if they release a new model or pricecuts but it is very unlikely seeing how they aren't really aggressive with it anymore. People thinking games will have a big impact in year 7 are delusional. Most games have had multiple entries already.
So PS4 : 9,5 millions
I don't see the Switch doing less than last year. It has a major system seller touching an audience the Switch didn't really dabble into yet - Animal crossing. Which this games also pushes further the multiple console per house hold and so the lite that has been release end of 2019 and will help momentum going into 2020. With estimates, Switch is already up significantly first week of the year compared to a week with Smash momentum, while having no big games since mid November. So looking at it, Switch will be up during most of the year easily, price cut is possible and rumors of a new model. It will all depend on the lineup, but Nintendo can start being aggressive in bundles and prices this year.
So for the Switch, i see it peaking this year with numbers, for now, expecting the the bare minimum in promotion : 21.5 millions. It could be higher, will depend on their strategy and if they are willing to reduce the price. But i don't see it doing less than that. Even if there is no as huge game for the holidays as pokemon, the rest of the year being significantly higher will make up for it.
Xbox One : idc... really. 2.5 Millions ? Don't think they have any more models in mind and don't think they can come up with better deals.
PS5 & Xbox series X : I don't expect any numbers before we know the launch date, pricing and lineup. Knowing both i don't expect a huge exclusive title to any of them. The price will have to be higher just because they need to surpass by a lot their mid gen console update which is a blessing and a curse. Yes cycle is longer but now they have to release a console in the 500 range at launch. I do think PS5 will atleast start stronger or else they really need to f**k up their launch. But do keep in mind the general public can switch their mind pretty quickly over insignificant stuff overnight. So any bad move could make the PS5 sell a lot less than anticipated or put Microsoft further in the ground or even save them.
Last edited by xMetroid - on 08 January 2020