Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What is Zelda: Breath of the Wild Going to Actually Sell Lifetime? (25mil+ A Possibility?)

BotW (Switch) will sell....

25mil+ 13 19.70%
 
23mil-25mil 11 16.67%
 
21mil-23mil 16 24.24%
 
20mil-21mil 10 15.15%
 
19mil-20mil 10 15.15%
 
18mil-19mil 2 3.03%
 
Under 18mil 4 6.06%
 
Total:66

As Title says what is BotW going to cap at Lifetime? Game has one of the most impressive legs in gaming history (certainly the best ever for a launch title if wii sports dont count lol)

Game in its 11 quarter shipped over 900k and no signs of stopping. Of course there is the sequel which is most likely going to hit holiday of 2020 but the legs arent stopping... Are we looking at 20mil? Less? Much more? Post your predictions from this point on...

Game is around 1.8mil on wiiu with the sku of switch being over 14.5mil+ (16mil+ now)

And Go.......

Thanks to Rol

Q1 2017: 2.76m/2.76m
Q2 2017: 1.16m/3.92m
Q3 2017: 0.78m/4.70m
Q4 2017: 2.00m/6.70m
Q1 2018: 1.78m/8.48m
Q2 2018: 0.84m/9.32m
Q3 2018: 0.96m/10.28m
Q4 2018: 1.40m/11.68m
Q1 2019: 1.09m/12.77m
Q2 2019: 0.84m/13.61m
Q3 2019: 0.93m/14.54m

Last edited by tbone51 - on 02 November 2019

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Shipments of the Switch version by calendar quarter:

Q1 2017: 2.76m/2.76m
Q2 2017: 1.16m/3.92m
Q3 2017: 0.78m/4.70m
Q4 2017: 2.00m/6.70m
Q1 2018: 1.78m/8.48m
Q2 2018: 0.84m/9.32m
Q3 2018: 0.96m/10.28m
Q4 2018: 1.40m/11.68m
Q1 2019: 1.09m/12.77m
Q2 2019: 0.84m/13.61m
Q3 2019: 0.93m/14.54m

It's performing very consistently, so there's a chance that the Switch version alone hits 20m by the end of 2020. If not, it will be close.

I think Breath of the Wild 2 is targeting a late 2020 release, but that won't kill sales of the first game. I predict 25m lifetime for the Switch version of Breath of the Wild. Book it!



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

23-25 million.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

My guess is around 22m as at this point it's only going to stop selling once the sequel is out.



Ballpark of 25M I think for NSW version. It's trending to be at around 20M by the holidays next year and this is at a $60 MSRP (in the US Walmart/Amazon have been selling at $50 for the last 6 months or so but in JP I think its one of the higher priced NSW titles). A discounted "Nintendo Selects" (or whatever the NSW equivalent may be) version down the line is going to help as well.  I don't think the sequel is really going to affect its legs negatively - OTOH it just brings the spotlight back around once its releases.

The real big deal is that it is a single-player game with no online features legging out like this. That just doesn't happen - Skyrim is the only other performer like this in recent years and its legs are boosted by 4 different releases (OG/HD/VR/NSW). All other monster leggy sellers have major multiplayer/online/both functionality (Wii Sports/MK Series/GTAV/Minecraft/PUBG).

Nintendo's captured this phenomena twice before (huge leggy SP run) - SMB in the 80s and Pokemon RGBY in the 90s.  Only fitting that their #3 finally get its moment as well - the difference being that those games basically started the franchises, whereas Zelda's having its moment 3 decades later (though of course Mario was a thing prior to SMB).

As long as they hit the right cues with BOTW2 marketing, I think that is going to have a massive Pokemon/SSBU level launch.  BOTW's legs are essentially the result of best/near-best of all time WOM - exactly the kind of thing that carries over into a sequel's opening.

NSW HW & Evergreens Quarterly Shipments

NSW HW & Evergreens Calendar Year Shipments



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RolStoppable said:
Shipments of the Switch version by calendar quarter:

Q1 2017: 2.76m/2.76m
Q2 2017: 1.16m/3.92m
Q3 2017: 0.78m/4.70m
Q4 2017: 2.00m/6.70m
Q1 2018: 1.78m/8.48m
Q2 2018: 0.84m/9.32m
Q3 2018: 0.96m/10.28m
Q4 2018: 1.40m/11.68m
Q1 2019: 1.09m/12.77m
Q2 2019: 0.84m/13.61m
Q3 2019: 0.93m/14.54m

It's performing very consistently, so there's a chance that the Switch version alone hits 20m by the end of 2020. If not, it will be close.

I think Breath of the Wild 2 is targeting a late 2020 release, but that won't kill sales of the first game. I predict 25m lifetime for the Switch version of Breath of the Wild. Book it!

Oh thank you. Will add to OP. Was gonna research this but you got it.

I had very similar thinking as well. That would be monstrous. Worse Quarter is 780k, so if it avgerage 780k for the next 5 quarters (two are holiday) that would put the game at around 18.4mil. Of course itll be most likely more but there. 20mil is the floor now.

Wonder what a sequel could do



Tbh I can see the sequel releasing in 2021 with Prime 4 to fully polish it and put every idea into, 2020 I can see being like a better version of 2018 only with the likes of games like Xenoblade, Tokyo Mirage, Bayo3 and Animal Crossing. This would give BOTW even longer to maintain its current momentum.



24m combined.

Sequel will do somewhere between 12-15m.



These predictions will be shattered if they announce a $90 bundle of both games. Or if the sequel can have your character and items transferred from the save file of the original.



With how consistent shipment figures have been it is looking likely to surpass 25 million sold by the time all is said and done. The Switch is looking to have one of the best holidays seen for any platform since the Xbox 360 in 2010 when the Kinect launched. That will help the game (and all the big Switch games) keep its momentum.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

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