Forums - Sony Discussion - What's With The PS4 Sales Doubt?

Where Do You Think The PS4 Ends?

100M-110M 13 11.61%
 
111M-120M 30 26.79%
 
121M-130M 40 35.71%
 
131M-140M 21 18.75%
 
141M-150M 5 4.46%
 
150M+ 3 2.68%
 
Total:112

So, we just had the news that the PS4 has now shipped 94.2M units as of Dec 31st, 2018.  I watched a few videos concerning this topic, and was surprised by some of the comments.  People are actually still doubting the sales of the PS4, saying it will barely pass 100M, with 110M probably being the limit.  This reminds me of the thread we had here, asking when the PS4 would pass the Wii, with too many people saying it wouldn't even hit 100M, even given the trajectory of sales at the time.  I suppose that is still a little more acceptable, given we were still ~20M+ away from 100M, if memory serves me right.

Now, I get doubting a console before its launch and even during the 1st year of sales, which I had done recently for the Switch.  But, I think after a year or so, the reality should kick in and you adjust your view on the subject.  With the PS4, we are over 5 years into its lifetime and people are STILL doubting its sales. 

Even if you take a pessimistic look at sales and say that the next 3 years it will drop 40% YOY (2019-10.6M, 2020-6.4M, 2021-3.8M), the PS4 still ends its lifetime at 115M.  Again, I stress the word pessimistic, cause we know 40% drops for at least 2019 and 2020 are out of the question.  Last year, sales only dropped 9%.  Given that this year we still have some big games launching on the HW, plus a cut to at least $249, I think a 15% drop is much more realistic.  Maybe only 10% if they cut to $199 around Sept.

So, what do you guys think these people are smoking?  And where can I get some?



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Well that depends. Is it just random Youtube videos? Then I would say, that's why.

A lot of people do not have the general knowledge of how sales work. Even I didn't and still in some ways could further increase my knowledge. I think in the PS4 100M thread I thought it would only get to 105-110M. 115M max. Now I know that's completely unrealistic. And when I joined this site, I had this idea that kind of carried over from childhood that Zelda was Nintendo's good ol' second or third best, after Pokemon and Mario. It wasn't like some kind of thought-out belief, it's not like I was 10 and saying "I bet Zelda sells almost as much as Mario!". But the way the series, and in particular Link, were marketed made me believe that the franchise was one of the biggest of Nintendo. Obviously, with BOTW now things are different, but that definitely wasn't the case when I first found this site.  Edit: (It might be if you include ALL software sales, but obviously we're talking about the impact of the series from game to game). 

Kind of an odd example but you get my point. People don't have general know how and I still find there's a lot I need to learn about sales and a lot I still do learn everyday from some of the users on this site.

Edit: I voted 130-135M in the poll. 



Well i frankly find it hard to believe that some people still think 1110M is realistic. Its clear that even if the ps5 releases this year (which is pretty unlikely), the ps4 will still continue doing well. I put 140M in your poll.



Why is there no option for under 100m in the poll?



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My forecast is always the same : 130M+
Quote me at the end of PS4 life cycle.
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”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

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RolStoppable said:
Why is there no option for under 100m in the poll?

I wouldn't put an option for less than 120M :P



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

In life only three things are certain. Death, taxes and console warring.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Well that depends. Is it just random Youtube videos? Then I would say, that's why.

A lot of people do not have the general knowledge of how sales work. Even I didn't and still in some ways could further increase my knowledge. I think in the PS4 100M thread I thought it would only get to 105-110M. 115M max. Now I know that's completely unrealistic. And when I joined this site, I had this idea that kind of carried over from childhood that Zelda was Nintendo's good ol' second or third best, after Pokemon and Mario. It wasn't like some kind of thought-out belief, it's not like I was 10 and saying "I bet Zelda sells almost as much as Mario!". But the way the series, and in particular Link, were marketed made me believe that the franchise was one of the biggest of Nintendo. Obviously, with BOTW now things are different, but that definitely wasn't the case when I first found this site.  Edit: (It might be if you include ALL software sales, but obviously we're talking about the impact of the series from game to game). 

Kind of an odd example but you get my point. People don't have general know how and I still find there's a lot I need to learn about sales and a lot I still do learn everyday from some of the users on this site.

Edit: I voted 130-135M in the poll. 

Well, they are vids talking about sales, so you would think sales people would be more attracted to them, but maybe not.  It wouldn't be so bad if they spoke about things as opinions, but to shoot down someone who thinks 130M is possible, while putting up their 110M as a "hard fact," is annoying.

And how did you vote 130M-135M?  That's not an option. 

fauzman said:
Well i frankly find it hard to believe that some people still think 1110M is realistic. Its clear that even if the ps5 releases this year (which is pretty unlikely), the ps4 will still continue doing well. I put 140M in your poll.

Yea, those people are crazy.  No way the PS4 hits 1.11B units.  It's impossible. 

Seriously, though, I get what you are saying.  It actually is impossible now that it stops at 110M, unless the world ends or Japan is swallowed up by a whirlpool.  We haven't even had a permanent price cut in over 2 years, with it still selling at $299.  It should drop to $249, at least, later this year and then drop to $199 within another year or two.  Personally, I chose 120M-130M, with it being closer to 130M.  But, it definitely could go higher.

RolStoppable said:
Why is there no option for under 100m in the poll?

Cause I didn't want people like you voting. 



I am part of the pessimistic crew, as I usually am for most consoles. And I think 115m is a decent place for it to stop, VGchartz users have convinced me that 120m is also very possible. So really anything below 115m-120m is pretty ridiculous.



RolStoppable said:
Why is there no option for under 100m in the poll?

Because this isn't a Nintendo Switch sales prediction thread. :P