So, we just had the news that the PS4 has now shipped 94.2M units as of Dec 31st, 2018. I watched a few videos concerning this topic, and was surprised by some of the comments. People are actually still doubting the sales of the PS4, saying it will barely pass 100M, with 110M probably being the limit. This reminds me of the thread we had here, asking when the PS4 would pass the Wii, with too many people saying it wouldn't even hit 100M, even given the trajectory of sales at the time. I suppose that is still a little more acceptable, given we were still ~20M+ away from 100M, if memory serves me right.
Now, I get doubting a console before its launch and even during the 1st year of sales, which I had done recently for the Switch. But, I think after a year or so, the reality should kick in and you adjust your view on the subject. With the PS4, we are over 5 years into its lifetime and people are STILL doubting its sales.
Even if you take a pessimistic look at sales and say that the next 3 years it will drop 40% YOY (2019-10.6M, 2020-6.4M, 2021-3.8M), the PS4 still ends its lifetime at 115M. Again, I stress the word pessimistic, cause we know 40% drops for at least 2019 and 2020 are out of the question. Last year, sales only dropped 9%. Given that this year we still have some big games launching on the HW, plus a cut to at least $249, I think a 15% drop is much more realistic. Maybe only 10% if they cut to $199 around Sept.
So, what do you guys think these people are smoking? And where can I get some?
