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None of the blockbuster 3rd party games coming to switch 2017

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Switch lifetime figures?

12-15 million 72 7.05%
 
15-20 million 58 5.68%
 
20-25 million 78 7.64%
 
25-30 million 119 11.66%
 
Way more than the above 694 67.97%
 
Total:1,021
oniyide said:
I see what Zod is trying to say, but I think we have to remember the Switch also doubles as their portable, so if anything they could always lean to that side and do what they've always done in that way

My 20M prediction is based on the expectation that NS does not replace 3DS. If that happens, my number will most probably be very wrong.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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RolStoppable said:

But what zorg said is true. The margin by which Switch is beating Wii U launch-aligned is growing at a rapid rate with each passing day. Three months after launch the Wii U was selling about 40k units per week. Switch is comfortably doing 160k units per week.

...

Switch isn't following the Wii U's pattern at all. Switch only needed three months to beat the Wii U's entire peak year performance.

I only see 9 weeks of HW data for NS. How do you see 3 months?

 

RolStoppable said:

To break it down by years, your prediction of 20m would have to look similar to this when taking the common sales curve for a struggling system into account:

2017 - 5m
2018 - 6m
2019 - 5m
2020 - 3m
2021 - 1m

But by the end of June Switch will already be closing in on 5m and then there's still half a year left, including the holiday season. Your prediction has no grounds in reality anymore, because it would require a dropoff in sales rate that is unprecedented.

WiiU was unprecedented:

2012 + 2013: 5.3M

2014: 3.6M

2015: 3.5M

2016: 1.5M

2017: 0.1M

 

It would only require this for NS:

2017: 9M

2018: 6M

2019: 4M

2020: 1M

 

But let me know your prediction. It's easy to "counter-bet", not so easy to bet.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

SpokenTruth said:
Some people want Switch to fail so badly that they'll ignore data, facts and reality to keep to their agenda.

My agenda is to keep my predictions in my signature forever. Obviously, I have no interest in making bad predictions.

But let me know your prediction for NS's lifetime sales. If they are +100M, I would love to talk to you in the years to come.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Honestly, seeing the data, the fact that the console sells out almost everywhere, the fact that it'll surpass WiiU best year in a month... And that the console is way more attractive than the WiiU was imho. And they still have a lot of margin to make a price cut if needed. I don't see a possible scenario when the console doesn't perform well. Less than 30M seems pretty outlandish right now.



It's selling well, that said, the OP's point is hard to dispute right now. 

Been kind of a depressing E3 for Switch software announcements, I think the only notable thing that may have leaked is a store listing for WWE 2K18, lol. 

Lets see what reveals Nintendo has at their show.



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Volterra_90 said:
Honestly, seeing the data, the fact that the console sells out almost everywhere, the fact that it'll surpass WiiU best year in a month... And that the console is way more attractive than the WiiU was imho. And they still have a lot of margin to make a price cut if needed. I don't see a possible scenario when the console doesn't perform well. Less than 30M seems pretty outlandish right now.

Make a prediction for NS's lifetime sales.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 said:
Volterra_90 said:
Honestly, seeing the data, the fact that the console sells out almost everywhere, the fact that it'll surpass WiiU best year in a month... And that the console is way more attractive than the WiiU was imho. And they still have a lot of margin to make a price cut if needed. I don't see a possible scenario when the console doesn't perform well. Less than 30M seems pretty outlandish right now.

Make a prediction for NS's lifetime sales.

Right now I'd say 80M. Bold one. We'll see in a few years time though!



Zod, are you aware they've already upped their production run to 18 million for the fiscal year?



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Zod95 said:
GoOnKid said:

Check your facts.

First 10 weeks:

Wii Sports: 3.7M

Wii Play: 1.2M

Wii Fit: 1.4M

Nintendo Land: 1.6M

1-2-Switch: 0.5M

 

Lifetime:

Wii Sports: 82.5M

Wii Play: 28.9M

Wii Fit: 22.7M

Nintendo Land: 4.5M

1-2-Switch: ???

 

Do you know why Nintendo Land ended up selling just 3x more its initial 10 weeks while the others ended up selling 20x more? Because the others were a novelty and they took some time to educate the market. When Nintendo Land came the market was already educated. It turned out to be a flop, it didn't drive console's sales and Mario games ended up being the best selling WiiU games.

1-2-Switch is even worse. Not only it's selling very, very, VERY poorly (one third of Nintendo Land's horrible performance) but also it's not driving any console's sales. At least Nintendo Land was the best selling title at that time. 1-2-Switch is just another title, like Bomberman. Both will probably finish out of NS's top 10.

Bolded the games which had Bundles. Of course this pushed their numbers pretty high. What do you think Nintendoland would have sold without it's bundle? I doubt it could have beaten 1-2 Switch, heck, I don't think it would have reached 500k lifetime without the bundle, as not even casuals picked it up. Had they bundled 1-2 Switch, it would already be close to Nintendoland's total sales and would have easely outsold it 2-1 by now?

Which leaves us with 1-2 Switch and Wii Play, as they didn't got bundled with a console. But Wii Play came with a Wiimote for barely more than a Wiimote alone, so naturally many (including me) bought it for the Wiimote and enjoyed the fact that they had a partygame to play when everybody got drunk.

So all in all, a very unfair comparision, though I don't think you realised that before posting.



Zod95 said:
RolStoppable said:

But what zorg said is true. The margin by which Switch is beating Wii U launch-aligned is growing at a rapid rate with each passing day. Three months after launch the Wii U was selling about 40k units per week. Switch is comfortably doing 160k units per week.

...

Switch isn't following the Wii U's pattern at all. Switch only needed three months to beat the Wii U's entire peak year performance.

I only see 9 weeks of HW data for NS. How do you see 3 months?

With NPD and MC data is not difficult to make estimates for the following weeks. 

SpokenTruth said:
Zod, are you aware they've already upped their production run to 18 million for the fiscal year?

I bet he is not.



 

 

We reap what we sow