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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

My god. Text wall blindness. Thanks Rol. OT: I would not dare to predict sales numbers for Switch. Too many variables to consider.



   

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the switch is to expensive to be liked by the handheld audience from the 3ds/ds/gameboy (often kids) and I dont see its gimmick gettting really popular in the casual market (like wii). Its still more or less a advanced wii u (you can take the tablet now far away from your console but thats basically it).

So imo we will look at the Nintendo home console customer base which is declining for generations now (Snes -> n64 -> gamecube -> Wii u).
The general interest in nintendo product just is declining. The Wii wasnt bought for the nintendo software or brand but for Wii Sports and the Wii balance board.

Something like paid online will definitly not help either.


I still do see the switch having a chance of an decent success:


If nintendo sells it as a iPad mini that can also play real console like games and nintendo games.
The price is compareable to and iPad/Android tablet, so as long as it can do what tablets can do (web surfing, netflix, amazon video, sky, facebook, youtube, instagram, photo editing, video editing, cloud storage like dropbox, calendar and such) I can see many people who are thinking about getting a tablet: "well, why not getting the switch, it does everything a ipad mini can do but im also able to play some mario / mario kart / zelda" and the price is the same/better.

That would be a huge selling point imo.



i agree with most of this, I own a NES and every home console and handheld released since then and I pre ordered every nintendo console.

I loved every handheld they ever released, including small upgrades like the GBA SP and the new XL models on DS/3DS also I loved all their home consoles UNTIL the Wii.

They lost me with the Wii and Wii-U in the home console market and I would buy a handheld version of the switch that is smaller (its to big for my handheld preferences in its current state) and with a better battery life. And obviously, a much lower price.

I think anyone predicting the Switch will do well outside of Japan is being over-enthusiastic because they like the idea of the switch but its really really not a massive populair innovation like the Wii, its more like the 3ds where the device is "ok" but not everyone is on board and Nintendo will need to lower the price and make a ton of games to convince people.

If they will and can do this is ultimately not up to us but up to them and I think they can reach 50m sold on this console if they support it well but its not the return to form I and many others wanted in the Home console market.




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Oh Rol. 

1. Yes, lots have given up on them. They continue to cater to a casual audience that is long gone, and has hurt them in being a viable console provider.

2. Well I'm sure Nintation360 would disagree with you.

3. Lots of people do not trust Nintendo anymore. And the majority of fans didn't skip it, I mean most core Nintendo fans got the console. Those are just all the fans that're left...

4. It is definently in trouble in the west, especially if it is touted as a home console replacement. 

5. Yes, it is very weak. Having only 1 AAA title at launch, and then having a few more through the summer isn't a "juggernaut" lineup.

6. We'll have to wait and see

7. The reason they have their games at the top is due to piss poor third party support, so I'd expect first parties to drag a little bit of the slack.

8. Wii U and 3DS had plenty of problems, and the Switch only shows how blind Nintendo is to what the gaming market wants.

9. Yes, people are going to come from the sky and buy this thing because its from "nintendo". I really want to see your predictions on the Wii U

10. No, HW that is 7-8 years dated is totally worth the price. I mean the XB1 and PS4 are cheaper, but no... being "special" is why they can do this. Oh wait, this is almost a copy and paste of the nvidia shield...

Conclusion: Learn to be a better liar.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

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Haha, what a magnificent post. I myself don't care to predict the exact sales of any games or consoles, because like you said, there are so many variables. But people should never count out Nintendo or their games, regardless of what they put out. I mean, look at the nes classic, that thing is pretty limited compared to sega's retro console reissue, but it seems to be outperforming it.



Switch will bé a flop unless they cut thé Price... À lot.

Thats it



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Well, I don't have any clue about sales to be quite honest, that's why I won't make any predictions. But a lot from the OP sounds reasonable. Also, people tend to underestimate Nintendo. I still remember how people said the Nintendo DS is gonna fail, it doesn't stand a chance against PSP, blah blah blah. We all know how that turned out. I also remember a lot of hype for the Vita. People freaked out when that thing was announced as NGP. It had them hardware specs for epic grfxx, it had dat 3rd party support, it was relatively cheap, it had everything people insist Nintendo needs for a successful console - and it failed miserably.

It's just too early for any kind of prediction. In the end, it all comes down to software. If you ask me, Switch sales will go through the roof as soon as Pokemon hits the console.



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

barneystinson69 said:

Oh Rol. 

1. Yes, lots have given up on them. They continue to cater to a casual audience that is long gone, and has hurt them in being a viable console provider.

2. Well I'm sure Nintation360 would disagree with you.

3. Lots of people do not trust Nintendo anymore. And the majority of fans didn't skip it, I mean most core Nintendo fans got the console. Those are just all the fans that're left...

4. It is definently in trouble in the west, especially if it is touted as a home console replacement. 

5. Yes, it is very weak. Having only 1 AAA title at launch, and then having a few more through the summer isn't a "juggernaut" lineup.

6. We'll have to wait and see

7. The reason they have their games at the top is due to piss poor third party support, so I'd expect first parties to drag a little bit of the slack.

8. Wii U and 3DS had plenty of problems, and the Switch only shows how blind Nintendo is to what the gaming market wants.

9. Yes, people are going to come from the sky and buy this thing because its from "nintendo". I really want to see your predictions on the Wii U

10. No, HW that is 7-8 years dated is totally worth the price. I mean the XB1 and PS4 are cheaper, but no... being "special" is why they can do this. Oh wait, this is almost a copy and paste of the nvidia shield...

Conclusion: Learn to be a better liar.

Lol "HW that is 7-8 years dated" 

It's a based on top of the line mobile technology that at the very least is from 2013.



Isn't it sad that despite all the arguments you listed, the Switch will still fail? At least that's what my feeling is telling me.

Also you forgot to post your own prediction. It's easy to tell everyone they're wrong if you don't have an argument yourself you have to defend.



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