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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates in the OP!

jason1637 on 21 December 2016
Intrinsic said:
jason1637 said:

Well PS4 only beat XB1 by 100k, and it was on the same price and in some places had better deals. Also had a Pro model so lots of the sales were from upgrades. With the Pro upgrades slowing down and XB1S deals picking up i think MS will win the month. FFXV isnt an exclusive so for regular casuals its not a deciding factor. Gears 4 is doing less than other Gears but it probably has up to 35% digital so its probably sellinh pretty well. As got BF1 ofc it sales would drop but someone posted here that a gafer said sales were still at 1.3m. If thats true that really good sales.

Not saying FF15 is gonna do wonders, but the bolded part of your post is just BS. 

Remember destiny? Or even the bundled COD games on the PS4, or watchdogs....... none of those were exclusives.... look what they did for PS4 sales.

Lastly, because you can say something (no matter how outlandish it is) doesn't make it true.

Destiny,CoD, Watch Dogs were all big bundles that were easy to aquire while the FFXV bundle had a very limited run. Lets not also forget that those games appeal to a larger audience in the US than FF and they had MP which FFXV does not.



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Aura7541 on 21 December 2016
jason1637 said:
Aura7541 said:

I already said this before, but it is unreasonable to conclude that FFXV won't be a deciding factor considering that it favors the PS4 by a whole lot. The version that sells more proportionally will inherently have larger word of mouth, which will in turn encourage more consumers to get the console for that particular version than the other. Looking back at March 2010 NPD, the gap between the 360 and PS3 was one of the smallest monthly gap the PS3 had. Granted, God of War III played a significant role at making the gap smaller than usual, but FFXIII sold significantly more on the PS3 than on the 360 by ~435K units despite the latter console having a substantial lead and a FFXIII bundle to reinforce its hardware sales.

Fast forward to now, FFXV looks to sell 80% the PS4 and 20% on the XBO, a far cry from the previous 62.6% PS3 to 37.4% 360 ratio for FFXIII. I don't think the FFXV LE bundle is going to sell all that much, but it could make a difference considering how small November's gap was. And then, we have to consider that Microsoft did not release a new SKU like they did with the blue Gears 4 bundle last month, the PS4 won Cyber Monday, and the PS4's deals go for a longer duration (12/11 - 12/31) than the XBO's (12/11 - 12/24 unless Microsoft also extended the period). Frankly, it's a complete tossup.

The game will sell better on PS4 but since it doesnt hav MP and the bundle was very limited it wont have a big affect in sales.

Doesn't that actually play into the PS4's favor even more? Multiplayer focused games tend to have higher attachment rates on the XBO whereas singleplayer focused games (e.g. The Witcher III, Wolfenstein: The New Order, Doom) have higher attachment rates on the PS4. For instance, The Witcher III sold twice as much on the PS4 in the US and UK.

And I never said the bundle would have a big effect on sales. Reread my last paragraph as I already acknowledged that fact. The bundle, however, can effect the gap. A 100K gap isn't that big and December appears to be a complete tossup. An extra 50K sales from the bundle can make a difference between winning or losing December.



jason1637 on 21 December 2016
Aura7541 said:
jason1637 said:

The game will sell better on PS4 but since it doesnt hav MP and the bundle was very limited it wont have a big affect in sales.

Doesn't that actually play into the PS4's favor even more? Multiplayer focused games tend to have higher attachment rates on the XBO whereas singleplayer focused games (e.g. The Witcher III, Wolfenstein: The New Order, Doom) have higher attachment rates on the PS4. For instance, The Witcher III sold twice as much on the PS4 in the US and UK.

And I never said the bundle would have a big effect on sales. Reread my last paragraph as I already acknowledged that fact. The bundle, however, can effect the gap. A 100K gap isn't that big and December appears to be a complete tossup. An extra 50K sales from the bundle can make a difference between winning or losing December.

You were speaking if word of mouth and PS4 having a higher rate so since it has no MP then theres no reason to buy a PS4 for FFXV of youre friend has it on that console because you wont be able to play with them. As for attach rates they are about the same for SP games.



Angelv577 on 21 December 2016
jason1637 said:
Intrinsic said:

Not saying FF15 is gonna do wonders, but the bolded part of your post is just BS. 

Remember destiny? Or even the bundled COD games on the PS4, or watchdogs....... none of those were exclusives.... look what they did for PS4 sales.

Lastly, because you can say something (no matter how outlandish it is) doesn't make it true.

Destiny,CoD, Watch Dogs were all big bundles that were easy to aquire while the FFXV bundle had a very limited run. Lets not also forget that those games appeal to a larger audience in the US than FF and they had MP which FFXV does not.

You can also argue that those looking for a ff15 game aren't your typical destiny, call of duty gamers.  Those who doesn't have a current gen console that are looking for a jrpg are more likely to get a ps4 because jrpg is more associated with playstation than xbox, hence why even when xb360 had a bigger install base, the ps3 version still sold way better in US.  If the allocation is gonna be bigger now compare to last gen  console, you can't assume those 80% are existing ps4 owners. some of them gonna be new customers.  In other words, those looking to upgrade that are also looking for a ff15 type of games are more inclined to get a ps4 especially when ff7 remake will be playable first on ps4.  Now december is too big to be decided by one game.  Any other low month like march would make a bigger difference than december.



jason1637 on 21 December 2016
Angelv577 said:
jason1637 said:

Destiny,CoD, Watch Dogs were all big bundles that were easy to aquire while the FFXV bundle had a very limited run. Lets not also forget that those games appeal to a larger audience in the US than FF and they had MP which FFXV does not.

You can also argue that those looking for a ff15 game aren't your typical destiny, call of duty gamers.  Those who doesn't have a current gen console that are looking for a jrpg are more likely to get a ps4 because jrpg is more associated with playstation than xbox, hence why even when xb360 had a bigger install base, the ps3 version still sold way better in US.  If the allocation is gonna be bigger now compare to last gen  console, you can't assume those 80% are existing ps4 owners. some of them gonna be new customers.  In other words, those looking to upgrade that are also looking for a ff15 type of games are more inclined to get a ps4 especially when ff7 remake will be playable first on ps4.  Now december is too big to be decided by one game.  Any other low month like march would make a bigger difference than december.

Yeah you have a good point i forgot FF7R is a timed exclusive.



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Aura7541 on 21 December 2016
jason1637 said:
Aura7541 said:

Doesn't that actually play into the PS4's favor even more? Multiplayer focused games tend to have higher attachment rates on the XBO whereas singleplayer focused games (e.g. The Witcher III, Wolfenstein: The New Order, Doom) have higher attachment rates on the PS4. For instance, The Witcher III sold twice as much on the PS4 in the US and UK.

And I never said the bundle would have a big effect on sales. Reread my last paragraph as I already acknowledged that fact. The bundle, however, can effect the gap. A 100K gap isn't that big and December appears to be a complete tossup. An extra 50K sales from the bundle can make a difference between winning or losing December.

You were speaking if word of mouth and PS4 having a higher rate so since it has no MP then theres no reason to buy a PS4 for FFXV of youre friend has it on that console because you wont be able to play with them. As for attach rates they are about the same for SP games.

Clearly not the case with The Witcher III in either the US and UK. Doom also had a pretty large skew towards the PS4 in the UK. I don't know what's the distribution for Doom in the US. Unless you're telling me NPD is lying and the PS4 is selling twice as much as the XBO in the US and UK, the attachment rates are not identical. Not even close...

As for FFXV, what if the friend wants to own the game for his/her own? You can't just assume he/she won't buy a PS4 for FFXV just because it has no MP. This is slippery slope argumentation... And considering on average, XBO owners prefer multiplayer games more than the average PS4 owner, wouldn't FFXV not having MP be a larger detriment for the XBO?



NoCtiS_NoX on 22 December 2016

When does selling 1 million in 1 Country a bad thing now? Please help me understand in the way you will convince me?

I have been reading a lot of post here that PS4 sales and Xbone sales are bad. Its down yes but it is no way bad.



Jranation on 23 December 2016
NoCtiS_NoX said:
When does selling 1 million in 1 Country a bad thing now? Please help me understand in the way you will convince me?

I have been reading a lot of post here that PS4 sales and Xbone sales are bad. Its down yes but it is no way bad.

Its probably because of expectations. I dont think much people expected it to be down. There were quite a few people expecting the PS4 to reach around 2mil. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Intrinsic on 23 December 2016
NoCtiS_NoX said:
When does selling 1 million in 1 Country a bad thing now? Please help me understand in the way you will convince me?

I have been reading a lot of post here that PS4 sales and Xbone sales are bad. Its down yes but it is no way bad.

Didn't you know?

Globally in the USA



zorg1000 on 23 December 2016
NoCtiS_NoX said:
When does selling 1 million in 1 Country a bad thing now? Please help me understand in the way you will convince me?

I have been reading a lot of post here that PS4 sales and Xbone sales are bad. Its down yes but it is no way bad.

They arent bad in and of themselves but they should be higher all things considering.

This is the first holiday for the new, slim models as well as the debut month for PS4 Pro. That along with the heavy discounts to sub-$250 really should have put them both up YOY.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.